Aug 7, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) celebrates with teammates after scoring a run during the third inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Good morning, Mets fans!

Chris Bassitt tossed eight innings of one-run ball to lead the Mets to a 5-1 victory over the Reds. Starling Marte hit a two-run homer off Justin Dunn, Dan Vogelbach collected two hits and an RBI, and Tyler Naquin padded the lead with a two-run triple. With the Braves idle, the Mets increased their division lead to seven games. Since 2013, the Mets have won 36 of their last 51 games against Cincinnati.

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First-round draft pick Jett Williams made his professional debut yesterday for the FCL Mets. The 18-year-old went 1-for-3 with a walk and an RBI single. The Heath, TX native was committed to play baseball at Mississippi State but elected to sign with the Mets after the team selected him 14th overall

Third baseman Brett Baty and right-hander Jose Butto have both been promoted to Triple-A Syracuse. Baty is hitting a strong .312/.406/.544 with 19 homers and 22 doubles for Double-A Binghamton and has a scorching 1.072 OPS since June 1. Butto meanwhile has a 10.5 K/9 this season and had a nice month of July, turning in a 2.86 ERA and 1.024 WHIP.

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Matt Carpenter departed the Yankees’ game in Seattle last night with a fractured left foot. Carpenter fouled a ball off himself in the top of the first inning and was removed following the half inning. This comes as a huge blow to the 36-year-old, as he’d been enjoying a career renaissance, having smacked 15 homers in 153 plate appearances.

Dennis Eckersley announced he will retire from the NESN booth following this season. Eckersley has spent 20 seasons with NESN.

The Cubs claimed Franmil Reyes from the Guardians after he was designated for assignment last week. Furthermore, Cubs team president Jed Hoyer said the club will release Jason Heyward from the last year of his contract. Heyward is expected to miss the rest of the season due to a knee injury.

The Dodgers claimed infielder Rylan Bannon off waivers from the Orioles. The 26-year-old was part of the package the Dodgers sent to Baltimore for Manny Machado but has registered just 14 MLB at-bats.

Latest on MMO

John Sheridan takes a look at who’s hot in the latest edition of 3 Up, 3 Down.

Alexis Farinacci recaps the Mets’ win over the Reds.

Mathew Brownstein dives into the Mets’ performances from the past week in his latest segment of Mets by the Numbers.

On This Date in Mets History

1963: Jim Hickman hits a grand slam off Lindy McDaniel in the ninth inning to give the Mets a 7-3 victory over the Cubs and end Roger Craig‘s NL-record-tying 18-game losing streak.

2005: The Mets lose to the Padres 8-3, but David Wright makes an outstanding barehanded grab on a broken-bat pop-up off the bat of Brian Giles.

2006: In his first game back at Shea Stadium since leaving in free agency, Mike Piazza hits two homers off Pedro Martinez. However, the Mets escape with a 4-3 victory as they attack Clay Hensley early and often.

2012: R.A. Dickey continues his magnificent season, tossing a complete game to lead the Mets past the Marlins, 6-1. Dickey allows just five hits and one run, walking none and striking out 10.

2019: Trailing 6-3 in the bottom of the ninth inning, Todd Frazier cranks a game-tying three-run homer off Sean Doolittle. Later in the inning with two outs, Michael Conforto rips a walk-off single over Adam Eaton‘s head, stunning the Nationals. The win is the Mets’ seventh in a row and their 14th in their last 15 games.

Birthdays: Pat Mahomes (52)

The post Morning Briefing: Mets’ Division Lead Up to Seven Games appeared first on Metsmerized.

Justin Dunn (Photo by Ed Delany/MMO

Good morning, Mets fans!

Former Mets first-round pick Justin Dunn has been called up by the Reds in place of the injured Hunter Greene and is scheduled to make his season debut at Citi Field tonight. The Mets selected the Freeport, NY native out of Boston College with the 19th pick of the 2016 MLB draft, but traded him to the Mariners in 2018 as part of the Edwin Díaz trade. Dunn made 25 starts over three years with Seattle before getting sent to Cincinnati for Eugenio Suárez and Jesse Winker. This season, Dunn has struggled in eight minor-league starts to the tune of a 6.75 ERA and has walked 17 batters in 28 innings.

Opposing Dunn will be Chris Bassitt (8-7, 3.61 ERA), who’s coming off another strong outing against Washington. Bassitt hurled seven shutout innings on Wednesday, walking just one batter and striking out four. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm.

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Jacob deGrom threw 76 pitches and retired the first 17 batters he faced, striking out 12 and allowing just one walk as the Mets took the finale of their series with the Braves, 5-2. Pete Alonso and Mark Canha both hit two-run doubles in a four-run third inning, and the Mets chased Spencer Strider after he threw 79 pitches in 2 2/3 innings. Joely Rodríguez threw 2 1/3 scoreless innings, and Edwin Díaz struck out the side in the ninth to secure his 26th save of the year. All told, the Mets struck out 19 batters, tying a franchise record. After taking four of five from Atlanta, the Mets now lead the NL East by 6 1/2 games.

Buck Showalter told reporters that it’s possible Joey Lucchesi joins the team this season. The southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery last summer to repair a torn UCL.

Latest MLB News

Prior to yesterday’s game, the Braves recalled right-hander Huascar Ynoa and selected the contract of catcher Chadwick Tromp from Triple-A Gwinnett. The team also optioned outfielder Guillermo Heredia and righty Ian Anderson to Gwinnett.

The Brewers have designated southpaw Jake McGee for assignment. The 35-year-old saved 31 games for the Giants last season, but he struggled badly this year before San Francisco released him. McGee hasn’t been much better in Milwaukee, having allowed two homers in just 5 2/3 innings. Overall, McGee has. a 7.00 ERA and a 1.513 WHIP in 27 innings.

Latest on MMO

James Villani recaps the Mets’ win on Sunday afternoon.

Andrew Steele-Davis writes about how the Mets’ trade deadline acquisitions have excelled since arriving in Queens.

Bryan Cameron examines how Max Scherzer has dominated since joining the Mets.

On This Date in Mets History

1985: Keith Hernandez collects five of the Mets’ 20 hits as they rout the Expos in Montreal, 14-7. Rick Aguilera picks up the win on the mound.

2007: Moises Alou hits a go-ahead homer off Rafael Soriano, and Billy Wagner escapes a big-time jam as the Mets beat the Braves, 4-3. Wagner allows back-to-back singles to start the inning before walking Chris Woodward to load the bases but gets Jeff Francoeur hit into a forceout and Andruw Jones ground into a game-ending double play.

2014: Bartolo Colon tosses eight innings of one-run ball to earn the 200th victory of his career as the Mets hold off a late charge from the Phillies to win 5-4.

Birthdays: John Hudek (56)

The post Morning Briefing: Justin Dunn to Make Season Debut Against Mets appeared first on Metsmerized.

Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports

Over three ago the New York Mets and former general manger Brodie Van Wagenen made a blockbuster trade.

On December 1, 2018, New York acquired all-stars Edwin Díaz and Robinson Canó. In exchange they sent two top-100 prospects, another top-30 organizational prospect, and two veterans. In total, New York sent Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Gerson Bautista, Jay Bruce, and Anthony Swarzak to Seattle for Canó, Díaz, and $20 million.

Well, given all this time has passed, and plenty has happened since, re-visiting the trade now makes sense. It makes even more sense given the fact the Mets recently released Canó.

So, where did all these pieces of the trade end up? How have they performed?

Let’s take a look before the Mets and Mariners play on Friday for the first time since the trade happened.

The Mets

One half of the duo New York received, as everyone is aware, was recently let go. Canó was designated for assignment then subsequently released at the beginning of May. His stretch with New York certainly did not go as planned.

During a subpar 2019 season, which featured an injury, Cano hit .256 over 390 at-bats. Some thought the 37-year-old might have re-kindled some magic during the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season. He hit .316 with 10 home runs across only 171 at-bats in his second-year as a Met. However, he was subsequently suspended 162 games for the use of PEDs and missed the whole 2021 season.

In his first appearance back with the Mets, Canó had a decent spring training where he hit .360. However, his lack of power was on full display as he failed to hit a home run and had only two doubles. New York gave him 12 regular-season games to figure it out. Unfortunately, he posted a slash line of .195/.233/.268 and was subsequently released.

Overall, Canó played parts of three seasons with New York. Across 602 total at-bats he slashed .269/.315/.450. In total, Canó hit 24 home runs and drove in 72 runs. And as documented, the Mets are fully on the hook for the remaining $37.6 million he is owed. Interestingly enough, he also is reportedly expected to sign with the San Diego Padres in the coming days.

Díaz, on the other hand, has settled into New York terrifically. He did have a miserable first-year with the team, where he blew numerous saves, lost his closer role, and pitched to a 5.59 ERA.

Snippet via Baseball Savant.

However, after that, he has been as advertised. Since that 2019 season, Díaz has looked like the pitcher that he was back in 2018 when he put together one of the best seasons any closer has had in recent memory. Especially this season (Statcast metrics shown above), where he has been one of the league’s top relievers.

The Mariners 

As mentioned above, Seattle received five pieces from New York in the trade. The headliners of the deal were two top-100 prospects in Kelenic and Dunn. Kelenic, at the time, was by far the crown jewel of the trade. The former first round pick was later touted by many as a top-10 prospect in baseball. However, Seattle has yet to see the type of player that thought they were getting.

USA TODAY Sports

Kelenic has struggled once again this season as he did last year. He only has 12 hits over 86 at-bats (.140 average) and has struck out 39 times compared to only nine walks. His OPS+ of only 55 paints an even further alarming picture.

Kelenic is slashing a career .173/.256/.338 and has only hit 17 home runs and driven in 53 runs. He has struggled dearly to put the ball in play as his strikeout rate is 30.0%. The former sixth overall pick has a total bWAR of -1.8 up to this point.

Now, Kelenic is only 22 years old. He has yet to tally a full season’s worth of at-bats. So, there certainly is time for him to turn it around and be the player he was once touted to be. However, a less than ideal start.

The other two younger players that were in the deal are both no longer with the Seattle organization.

Former top-100 prospect Justin Dunn has largely battled injuries and in total only started 25 games for the Mariners. Over his Seattle career he registered a FIP of 5.61 and an ERA of 3.94. Dunn was since traded in a package to the Cincinnati Reds for Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez where he remains on the 60-day injured list.

Meanwhile, Gerson Bautista is playing professional ball in Mexico. The former flame-thrower was out-righted back on October 23rd of 2020 by Seattle. He briefly appeared with the Mariners again in March 2021 before going overseas. Overall, his Seattle career spanned nine innings where he allowed 13 hits and 11 runs.

As for the two veterans, Jay Bruce was later traded by Seattle to Philadelphia along with cash considerations for third baseman Jake Scheiner. Scheiner is still with Seattle playing at the Double-A level.

Lastly, Anthony Swarzak pitched 13 2/3rd innings with Seattle in 2019 posting an ERA of 5.27. He is currently a free agent. The 36-year-old was traded in 2019 to Atlanta for Arodys Vizcaino and Jesse Biddle. Biddle had a 9.82 ERA with Seattle in 2019 before being claimed on waivers by Texas. He is now pitching in Japan. Vizcaino did not appear in a game for Seattle and finds himself at the Triple-A level with the Kansas City Royal organization.

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Wrap-Up

When looking at the trade overall, of the seven players that were involved, really only one has made a pro-longed meaningful contribution, that being Edwin Díaz. Unfortunately for Seattle, although extremely early, Kelenic has yet to piece it all together. The bottom-line is the Mariners has yet to receive any major on-field production from the pieces involved and the Mets have.

Of course, there are other factors surrounding the deal. Examples being the dead money New York is now burdened with, as well as the return Dunn fetched for Seattle (Winker and Suárez). So, labeling a true winner in the trade is tricky, nor what this is all about. It was simply to check in on how each of the seven players involved in the deal have performed and examine where they currently find themselves.

The post How Have the Diaz-Cano-Kelenic Trade Participants Performed? appeared first on Metsmerized.

Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

With Jarred Kelenic and the Seattle Mariners coming to town, many will attempt to re-litigate the shocking trade which sent Kelenic to the Seattle Mariners organization as a part of a trade package for Robinson Cano and Edwin Díaz. Of course, 2022 performances invite revisionist history here.

This season, Díaz has clearly been the top performer in this trade. Through 14 appearances, he is 1-0 with seven saves, a 1.93 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, and a 15.4 K/9. He looks like he’s having a career year, but it’s important to note much of that is due to Jeremy Hefner.

Hefner has diligently worked with Diaz on his mechanics making sure his delivery has been repeatable, and he’s landing with his foot pointed towards home plate. He’s also helped Diaz create more break and spin on his slider leading to a 55% whiff rate this year. Really, it took four years for Diaz to be what the Mets expected him to be.

In many ways, Diaz is not the same pitcher he was in his first three years with the Mets. That’s very good to a certain extent because that Diaz was not the difference-maker he was advertised to be.

On that point, it is important to remember the trade to obtain him was a win-now deal for the Wilpons, who were nearing being forced to sell the New York Mets to the highest bidder. Really, the deal smelled like one last shot to try to win a World Series, and ironically, it was the trade that prevented the Mets from winning that World Series.

In 2019, Diaz was dreadful with a career-worst 5.59 ERA, 74 ERA+, and 4.51 FIP. He blew seven saves and lost seven games for a Mets team that missed the postseason by three games. Really, Diaz was a big reason why the Mets missed the postseason that year.

Canó might’ve been a bigger reason. Canó was the target as Brodie Van Wagenen sought to bring his former client back to New York as Canó wanted. Canó responded with a career-worst season with a 0.6 WAR and a 94 wRC+. This was supposed to be a key bat in the lineup, and Canó was terrible while Van Wagenen ensured Mickey Callaway batted his former client third.

With Cano, it is the gift that keeps on giving. Yes, he had a bounce-back 2020 season, but as we learned, he was using PEDs again. That cost him the 2021 season, and with him able to physically return, it was $40.5 million the Mets did not get to spend.

Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Instead of keeping Aaron Loup or further addressing the bullpen, the Mets were restricted to Adam Ottavino and Chasen Shreve. Instead of a Kris Bryant, Michael Conforto, or Seiya Suzuki, the Mets obtained Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar, who have so far underwhelmed this season.

Really, that has been the theme of Canó’s time on the Mets. It’s been the organization wasting resources on him that could have been better spent. The biggest example of that is Zack Wheeler desperately wanted to stay with the Mets, but they couldn’t keep him because the money was going to Cano.

As a result, the Mets dead weight became the Phillies ace. The Wilpons didn’t have any money to spend in the ensuing offseasons, and Steve Cohen has $20.25 million per year he can’t spend on better talent through next season.

There’s also the matter of this season. The Mets completely wasted plate appearances over the first month of the season trying to see what they had in Cano. The answer was nothing, and they were happy to part with him and his onerous contract. However, that came with a consequence with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis not getting the playing time they needed to succeed this season.

There were some who wanted to defend the trade because the Mets moved “untradeable contracts.” The Mariners had no problem trading Jay Bruce whatsoever. They also traded Anthony Swarzak, who helped the Atlanta Braves win the division.

Also, keep in mind the Mets parted with two Top 100 prospects in Kelenic and Justin Dunn. Certainly, Kelenic has struggled early in his career, and Dunn is dealing with a shoulder injury. Certainly, that is part of a very suspect Mariners player development system where we constantly ask why their prospects never seem to pan out.

However, this is also very much besides the point. Back in the 2018 offseason, that duo could have gotten the Mets anything they wanted. Teams would have been literally lining topping one another to get Kelenic and Dunn. Remember, this deal came in the same offseason the Miami Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto. Instead, the Mets hastily accepted a closer and an albatross.

That deal cost the Mets the 2019 postseason. It cost them the opportunity to compete in 2020. It cost them the ability to make deadline deals in 2021 because that trade and all of Van Wagenen’s trades cost them valuable prospect depth needed to swing the trades the Mets needed. It was also $40.5 million the Mets did not have to spend on free agents.

It will again impact the Mets at the trade deadline and this ensuing offseason. All told, this deal remains an unmitigated disaster no matter how great Díaz is or how much Kelenic struggles.

The post Opinion: Jarred Kelenic-Robinson Canó Deal Remains Unmitigated Disaster appeared first on Metsmerized.

Even before the regular season started, you could hear it in Mets’ manager Luis Rojas voice that the team couldn’t afford to stay with Edwin Diaz as the closer if he continued his struggles.

Well, the struggles continued big time –  and could’ve been much worse if not for a bailout from Paul Sewald – on Thursday night when Diaz came into the game with the Mets trailing 3-2 in the ninth.

Diaz last pitched on July 25, so Rojas felt it was a good spot to get him work in a high leverage situation. The inning started with a walk to Alex Verdugo followed by a Michael Chavis single and then a four-pitch walk to Andrew Benintendi. All of a sudden the bases were loaded with nobody out in a one-run game.

After striking out Rafael Devers for the first out, Diaz then hit Jose Peraza with a pitch. His 35th and last of the night, as Paul Sewald came into replace him. The line for Diaz would look much worse if not for Sewald getting both batters he faced without letting any inherited runners score.

1/3 IP, H, ER, 2 BB, K, HBP, 35 pitches/19 strikes

A whopping 35 pitches from Diaz to get only one out, leading Rojas to say, “We need to talk” after the game when asked about Edwin’s outing.

“That’s something that we’re going to do as a staff, me as the manager, and we’ll talk with the player. We want to keep him on track to what he showed us in camp that he didn’t show tonight. It’s something that, from our coaching standpoint, we’ve got to detect right away and just work on it, fix it quick.”

This poor outing from Diaz comes after he blew the save against the Braves in his previous appearance, when he gave up a game-tying solo homer to Marcell Ozuna in the ninth inning. A game the Mets ended up losing.

To be clear, I use the term closer because that’s generally what the Mets have used and it’s easier to say than high leverage reliever in the most important spots of the game. What we are really discussing is the changing of the bullpen pecking order in terms of who they trust more in big spots.

At this point, it’s tough to call the tenor for Diaz in Flushing anything but horrendous. His 2020 early season lumps follow a 2019 season in which he had a 5.59 ERA and allowed an ugly 15 home runs in 58 innings. Not at all what Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen had in mind when he agreed to trade two of his top prospects – outfielder Jarred Kelenic and right-handed pitcher Justin Dunn – to the Mariners for Diaz and second baseman Robinson Cano.

But let’s get away from what looks like a horrific trade for now, the Mets still have a chance to make the playoffs in this unconventional season. The good news for them is how Jeurys Familia pitched on Thursday night. The right-hander retired the side in order on 13 pitches, striking out J.D. Martinez and new-Mets killer Christian Vazquez on nasty sliders.

Familia threw seven sliders on the night, four of them produced swings and misses. He averaged 89.5 mph on the pitch and maxed out at 91. His sinker looked good as well, averaging 96.6 mph and had three of the six land for called strikes.

The former Mets closer has allowed two runs in 3 2/3 innings this year and has walked only one batter, he had a career-worst 6.3 BB/9 in 2019.

When Rojas was asked during Summer Camp about the closer/high leverage roles, he mentioned that Familia’s stuff was among the best in camp and certainly closer to his old self. Familia certainly has the experience of pitching high leverage with success in New York, he set a club record with 51 saves in 2016 and his 2.9 bWAR season in 2015 is one the best my a reliever in team history.

The Mets have another former closer as an option in Dellin Betances. The former Yankee does have two scoreless innings under his belt so far, but his fastball velocity is not fully back yet and I doubt the Mets feel he’s ready for that role already.

Mets relief ace Seth Lugo is another option and has one save on the season. Justin Wilson has previous closer experience as well. Should also note that reliever Drew Smith looked terrific on Thursday night and has yet to give up a baserunner in 2 2/3 innings.

With the assumption that Diaz gets removed from big spots, I would expect the trio of Familia, Lugo, and Wilson to be the guys the Mets lean on the heaviest.

With the Mets at 3-4 in a 60-game season, there’s no room to keep hoping that Diaz is flashing back to his days in Seattle. Rojas and the front office need to make a quick decision as to how they will handle high leverage spots going forward.

The post Time for a New Closer appeared first on Metsmerized.

The Robinson Cano/Edwin Díaz acquisition is already going down as one of the most one-sided trades in recent baseball history.

The Mets sent Jarred Kelenic, their recent first-round draft pick, packaging him with a couple of their top pitching prospects, in exchange for second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Díaz. Since the Mets took on most of Cano’s remaining deal, the Mariners received highly-paid veterans Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak as a form of salary relief.

So far, it’s pretty clear that Brodie Van Wagenen’s first big move as the Mets GM blew up in his face. Kelenic continued his assault on minor-league pitching and currently ranks among the top twenty prospects in the game. Meanwhile, Justin Dunn, one of the prospects that the Mets sent West, made his Major League debut in 2019 and should positively contribute to the Mariners’ pitching staff in 2020.

The two major-leaguers the Mets received didn’t fare well in their debut season in Queens. Cano floundered in his first year donning the orange-and-blue and doesn’t seem likely to drastically improve his performance in the coming years. However, the other piece that the Mets acquired in the trade seems primed for a rebound in 2020.

As Devan Fink of Fangraphs detailed in this excellent piece, it’s virtually impossible for Edwin Díaz to encounter worse luck in 2020.

Luck’s a fickle thing in baseball. Sometimes, players end up with 30-game hitting streak buoyed by a .427 BABIP; other times a 98-mph fastball on the black gets sent into the left-field bleachers. There’s nothing you can do about it and you never know when it’s going to change. Eventually, a player’s luck always to finds a middle ground.

Díaz still has a 97+ mph fastball with a 39% strikeout rate. With that velocity, it’s unlikely that 2020 will be a repeat of his ugly 2019 campaign.

Statcast Swing Take is the brainchild of Baseball Savant’s Tom Tango. It’s a way to measure batter success based on the swing and takes tendencies in four quadrants of the plate.

For a primer on Swing Take Profile, keep on reading. For a longer explanation, click here.

In Tango’s version of home plate, there are four distinct quadrants: the Heart Zone, the Shadow Zone, the Chase Zone, and the Waste Zone.

• The Heart Zone is located in the heart of the plate. 2019 average xwOBA: .376.
• The Shadow Zone shadows the strike zone. 43% of all pitches were thrown here during the 2019 season. 2019 average xwOBA: .263.
• Surrounding the Shadow Zone is the Chase Zone. Pitchers tend to use this zone to get opposing batters to chase pitches. Average 2019 xwOBA: .292.
• The final zone is the Waste Zone, which is used to “waste a pitch”. Average 2019 xwOBA: .436.

These images show Díaz’s 2018 and 2019 Swing Take Profiles.

2018:

2019:

These images show how many Run Values Edwin Díaz gained or lost in each zone in 2019. Run Values are calculated by taking the outcome of a plate appearance and determining how many runs it is worth. Baseball Prospectus defines it as the “number of runs to score from a particular event based on historical context.”

A major difference between let’s say, J.D. Davis‘s profile and Díaz’s profile is that Díaz’s Run Values are negative while Davis’s are positive. Run Values are negative for pitchers since the more outs a pitcher gets, the lower the Run Values.

There’s a couple of major differences in Díaz’s Heart Zones and Shadow Zones that could help explain his 2019 struggles.

Díaz’s Run Values in the Heart Zone increased from -8 in 2018 to +1 in 2019. His Swing Runs in the Heart Zone also went up from -4 Runs to +5 Runs.

Looking into it more, I wanted to see if his type of contact allowed impacted his Swing Runs increase. I decided to look at his line-drives and fly-balls numbers as the Batted Ball Events (BBE) characterized as such had a .582 wOBA last year. Díaz permitted 49 line drives and flyballs on pitches in this zone in 2019, compared to 35 similar results in 2018. Correspondingly, his barrels allowed in the Heart Zone rose from 4 to 11.

There was also a drastic increase in Díaz’s Run Values in the Shadow Zone. His -21 mark in 2018 was easily his best mark in his Swing Take Profile, but in 2019, it increased by 15 runs to -6. Although batters swung six percent in this zone more than the league average, it was unchanged from his 2018 mark.

His 2019 Swing Runs Value numbers in the Shadow Zone tanked, going from -19 Swing Runs in 2018 to -5 Swing Runs. However, the underlying reason for his increase in Runs in the Shadow Zone differed from his issues in the Heart Zone.

Díaz lost Runs in the Shadow Zone, not because of his skill, but rather, a factor he couldn’t control. His xwOBA in the Shadow Zone was virtually unchanged. Sure, his exit velocity and launch angle ticked up, but that wasn’t enough to warrant a .115 wOBA increase. His struggles were related to another phenomenon which I touched upon earlier in this article: luck.

There’s no perfect calculation that can totally encapsulate the amount of luck a player encounters, but there’s a number of metrics that can give some sliver in understanding if a player’s production is sustainable. One of the metrics I use to measure “luck” is HR/FB%. Fangraphs describes it as “the ratio of home runs a player hits out of their total number of fly-balls.” It’s calculated by taking the total amount of home runs a player hit and dividing it into the total amount of fly-balls hit.

HR/FB% is used to show if a home-run ratio is sustainable. The 2019 MLB average was 15.3%.

The average HR/FB ratio for all BBE located in Shadow Zone in 2019 was 18.8%. Díaz’s 2019 HR/FB ratio on pitches in the Shadow Zone: 40%. That’s ridiculously high and was a major contributor to his also-inflated .318 BABIP. For comparison, Díaz in 2018 had an 8.3% HR/FB rate along with a .211 BABIP.

With that being said, these numbers were taken from a small sample size. However, the advantage of the data being extracted from the small sample size is that it should begin to stabilize. With a larger sample size, his HR/FB% rate should begin trending in the opposite direction in 2020.

It’s also interesting to note Díaz’s year-over-year decline of swinging strikes in the Shadow Zone.

In 2018, Díaz had one of the most effective sliders in the game. It dominated opponent batters to the tune of a .190 wOBA and had a 29.1% SwStr%. That slider was particularly effective in the Shadow Zone (0.070 wOBA and a 40.9% SwStr%).

However, his slider didn’t enjoy the same success in 2019. Overall, it had a .387 wOBA and a 23.7% SwStr%. In the Shadow Zone, his wOBA jumped almost 150 points to .337 and his SwStr% fell to 30.7%.

Since the Shadow Zone borders the Strike Zone, I think it would be safe to assume that pitches in the Shadow Zone would induce plenty of swings and misses. In Díaz’s 2018 season, he generated 111 swings-and-misses on pitches in the Shadow Zone. In 2019, it fell to 93 swinging strikes in The Shadow Zone.

In the Chase and Waste Zones, there wasn’t a ton of discrepancy compared to his 2018 numbers. The only major divergence from his 2018 numbers was that batters posted three more Swing Runs against Díaz in the Chase Zone.

Improving in the Shadow Zone is the key to Diaz’s 2020 success. If he can improve in that area, he could easily transform back into a dominant bullpen arm. However, if he doesn’t, the Mets will need to seriously consider finding a ninth-inning replacement.

The post Statcast Breakdown of Forgettable 2019 for Edwin Diaz appeared first on Metsmerized.

Good morning Mets fans! The New York Mets (76-70) completed a four-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks (75-72) with an 11-1 victory on Thursday afternoon at Citi Field. The Mets now play host to the NL West Division Champion Los Angeles Dodgers (94-53) for a three-game set as they currently sit two games behind the second Wild Card spot with 16 games to go.

Latest Mets News

Noah Syndergaard (10-7, 4.06 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets in the series opener, while Clayton Kershaw (13-5, 3.06 ERA) will do the same for the Dodgers. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT with game coverage on SNY, WCBS 880 and ESPN Deportes 1050.

The Mets ended Thursday having increased their home run total at Citi Field to 113 home runs. That set a new home record for home runs in a single season.

Dominic Smith‘s rehab is up to running and hitting off a tee according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Smith is striving to work himself towards a return for when he is first eligible to come off the injured list on Sept. 25.

Steven Matz was named the Mets’ nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award. The award is given to the MLB player who “best represents the game of baseball through extraordinary character, community involvement, philanthropy and positive contributions, both on and off the field.”

Pete Alonso announced that he will be at the Team Mobile located on West 46th and Broadway from 12:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. on Friday for a fan meet-and-greet.

Latest MLB News

The Los Angeles Angels announced that Shohei Ohtani will undergo surgery Friday to address a bipartite patella in his left knee. They gave a general timetable of 8-12 weeks for the procedure.

Luis Severino will meet the New York Yankees in Toronto and is set to start Tuesday’s game against the Angels, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. Hoch also noted that Aaron Boone said Giancarlo Stanton could rejoin the team for their series against the Angels which they open on Tuesday.

Justin Dunn, the Mets’ 2016 first-round pick, made his MLB debut with the Seattle Mariners. He allowed no hits, five walks, and two runs in 2/3 of an inning versus the Cincinnati Reds to start the game.

Mychal Givens plans to pitch for Team Puerto Rico at the World Baseball Classic in 2021, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Givens played for Team USA in 2017, but plans on playing for Team Puerto Rico in 2021 in honor of his great-grandmother who raised him.

Nick Senzel is out for the rest of the season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder according to C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic.

In the AL Wild Card race, the Oakland Athletics sit in the first Wild Card spot and hold a 0.5-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays who sit in the second Wild Card spot. The Cleveland Indians trail the second Wild Card by half a game.

In the NL Wild Card race, the Washington Nationals hold a 3.5-game lead while in the first Wild Card spot and both the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers hold a 2.0-game lead while in the second Wild Card spot. The Mets (76-70; 2.0 games back), Philadelphia Phillies (76-70; 2.0 games back) and Diamondbacks (75-72; 3.5 games back) are all in the hunt.

Latest NL East News

The Atlanta Braves (91-57) remain atop the NL East standings, followed by the Nationals (80-64; 9.0 games back), Mets (76-70; 14.0 games back), Phillies (76-70; 14.0 games back) and Miami Marlins (51-95; 39.0 games back).

The Phillies beat the Braves 9-5, the Nationals beat the Minnesota Twins 12-6 and the Marlins fell to the Brewers 3-2.

Matz’s fellow Roberto Clemente Award nominees from around the NL East are Anthony Rendon from the Nationals, Charlie Culberson from the Braves, Martín Prado from the Marlins and Rhys Hoskins from the Phillies.

Latest on MMO/MMN

Michelle Ioannou wrote about Alonso who bought cleats for his teammates in honor of 9/11.

John Sheridan analyzed the chances each remaining National League Wild Card contender has to make the playoffs.

Tim Ryder wrote a piece on how the Mets’ starters currently have an opportunity to make a strong statement to the baseball world in this upcoming three-game series with the Dodgers.

Ryder also broke down Matz’s start from Wednesday.

Michael Mayer wrote about Francisco Alvarez and Corey Oswalt who were named to Baseball America All-Star teams.

This Day in Mets History

1963: Roger Craig lost his 21st game of the season after only allowing one run in nine innings to the Houston Colt .45’s at the Polo Grounds. It was Craig’s fifth time of the season in which he was charged with the loss in a 1-0 game.

1968: Jerry Koosman pitched his seventh shutout of the season which tied the National League rookie record for shutouts. The southpaw led the Mets to a 2-0 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates for their franchise-record 67th win of the season.

1983: Catcher Mike Fitzgerald hit a home run in his first MLB at-bat, becoming the 48th major leaguer to do so.

Birthdays: Daisuke Matsuzaka turns 39, Grant Roberts turns 42, Rodney McCray turns 56 and Tom Parsons turns 80.

The post Morning Briefing: Mets Resurrect Playoff Chances With Sweep Of D-backs appeared first on Metsmerized.

3 UP

1. Steven Matzux

Prior to Saturday night, Steven Matz had never gotten an out in the ninth inning. That includes when he was demoted into the bullpen prior to the All-Star Break.

On Saturday night, he’d not only get an out in the ninth, but on pitch 99, he’d complete the “Maddux“(complete game shut out on fewer than 100 pitches). His final line was 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K.

This was the best Matz’s slider has looked in quite some time, and he was spotting his change-up very well. This might have been the result of his moving to the middle of the rubber. If it was that, Matz may be a pitcher to watch in the second half.

2. Stay Home J.D.

There may be no rhyme or reason to it, but out of all the players on the Mets roster, J.D. Davis is their best hitter at Citi Field with a 201 wRC+. At Citi Field, he has a higher batting average than Jeff McNeil, a higher OBP than Michael Conforto, and a better slugging percentage than Pete Alonso. As we saw with him hitting a big home run on Saturday, you could actually argue that out of every player on the Mets roster, you want Davis up at Citi Field in a big spot.

3. Still Standing

Look, we keep talking about how the idea is ridiculous. Heading into the All Star Break, the Mets were 10 games under .500 with the second worst record in the National League. Just as they showed real signs of life and seemed primed for a big run to claim a Wild Card spot, they completely blew three out of their four games in San Francisco. Despite all of this, the Mets are very much alive.

As things stand at the moment, the Mets are five games under .500, but they are also just six games back of the second Wild Card. The Mets are about to embark on a six game road trip to Chicago and Pittsburgh. The White Sox have lost six of their last eight games including losing a series to the Marlins, and the Mets just beat up on the Pirates. After that, it’s three at Citi Field against the Nationals in what could suddenly be a huge series.

The Mets have also bolstered their rotation by adding Marcus Stroman, With Stroman in the fold, this is arguably the best rotation in the game, and the Mets have the second half schedule to make a 1973 or 2016 type of run. At this point, instead of doubting it, let’s just enjoy what promises to be a crazy ride.

3 DOWN

1. A Rare Slump For McNeil

With his versatility and throwback approach to hitting, Jeff McNeil has arguably been the Mets most valuable player this season. If the Mets are going to do anything this year or the next, they are going to need him to be front and center. Unfortunately, over his last five games he is really slumping going 4-for-20 at the plate. Even worse than that was his having to be removed from Sunday’s game after getting hit on the shin.

It is very possible McNeil just needs a day off in order to collect himself and get back on track, but with the Mets current position in the standings and the organization seemingly making a push this year, it will be difficult to find him that day. Hopefully, the Mets can find him a chance to catch his breath because they need him at his best.

2. Pain In The Foot

Lately, we had seen Dominic Smith struggling, and we may have seen an explanation why with him landing on the injured list with a stress fracture in his foot. This is a big loss because with the injury, the Mets have just lost their third best hitter this season (128 wRC+).

The Mets also lost important depth. With Smith down, the Mets had to call up Aaron Altherr, who is hitting .154/.200/.385 in the majors this year. This means the Mets will have to play a lot more of Davis in left field (-3 DRS), or Juan Lagares in center field (40, wRC+, -5 DRS). That’s beyond less than ideal. It should also be noted Smith was the one guy you could trust at first in the event Alonso goes down with an injury.

On another front, the Mets are trying to really shake things up over the next few days. With Smith down, they might have lost a big trade chip.

3. Farm System Further Depleted

When Brodie Van Wagenen took over the Mets General Manager job the Mets farm system was in much better shape than advertised. Alonso, Andres Gimenez, and Jarred Kelenic were already top 100 prospects. Both Justin Dunn and David Peterson had previously been named top 100 prospects, and they were on the cusp of getting back on the list.

As this season has progressed, we have seen Anthony Kay and Ronny Mauricio crack the top 100. Additionally, Simeon Woods Richardson, Mark Vientos, and Shervyen Newton have been named as prospects who could crack the top 100 within a year or two with Luis Santana being named a sleeper on more than one occasion.

During Van Wagenen’s very brief tenure as the Mets General Manager, he has traded three first round picks, and he has traded a second round pick. To put things in perspective, from the Mets lauded 2018 draft class, only one of their top four picks remain.

In exchange for all of that, the Mets have a 36-year-old second baseman due $100 million, a closer who you wish would remind you of Armando Benitez, a bench bat without a position, and a bona fide second starter who is under team control for one year and may compel the Mets to trade Noah Syndergaard.

If the Mets don’t win this year or the next, none of this was worth it.

The post 3 Up, 3 Down: Mets Steal Fool’s Gold From Pirates? appeared first on Metsmerized.

@BigHaloFan72 asks…

Who do you think is more likely to be let go first, Mickey Callaway or Brodie Van Wagenen.

Rob Piersall answers…

Hey, thank you for the question!

I think that Mickey Callaway will be gone before Brodie Van Wagenen.

At this point, it seems as though Callaway will at least finish out the year at the helm for the Mets, but once the season is over they will let him go.

Callaway reportedly has a big backer in the organization in owner Jeff Wilpon, and has one more year left on his contract after this. With that being said, however, after two losing seasons (despite it being unfair to pin it all on him), I think Callaway gets the axe.

As for Van Wagenen, this offseason surely exploded in his face, and if Jarred Kelenic lives up to what he is expected to be, it will hurt even more.

However, I think that Van Wagenen is liked by the front office a great deal, and will get every opportunity to right the ship in the next year or two. I think he will also get to appoint the next manager, someone who is his choice and not left over from the previous regime.

@JoeyPavone2 asks…

Is there a dark horse minor league player that might get called up and produce? It seems like there’s two many Quad-A players in Syracuse now

Rob Piersall answers…

Hey Joey, thanks for the question.

Now that Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil are up in the majors, the list of potential prospects in the upper levels that could debut and make a difference has certainly thinned out a bit.

Had Justin Dunn not been traded to the Seattle Mariners this offseason, I think he would have been next in line to come up here and debut either this year or next.

Not a dark horse, but the next guy who is likely to come up and produce seems to be Anthony Kay. The Long Island native got off to a bit of a rocky start in Triple-A, but his most recent effort was solid.

Other than that, it seemed as though Andres Gimenez could come up sooner rather than later, but his stock has slipped due to a rough year as well as injuries.

Left-hander David Peterson is quietly having a good year for Double-A Binghamton, but I would be shocked if he got an opportunity this year. If we see the former first round pick in Queens, I don’t think it’ll be until next year at the earliest.

Reliever Ryley Gilliam seemed to be on a fast track to the majors after being drafted last year, but has hit a bit of a wall in Syracuse, so he will need to bounce back before he gets a shot. Though, I believe he will and we see him in Queens in 2020. Steve Villines is another guy who falls under this category.

Other than that, that’s about it in the upper levels right now. A lot of the Mets talent right now lies in the lower levels, which is exciting, but also won’t be of use to the big league squad for at least a couple years.

***

Have a question for us? Feel free to Tweet at us: @MetsMerized, or shoot us an email at GetMetsMerized@aol.com.

The post Mailbag: Future of Callaway and Van Wagenen, Prospect Talk appeared first on Metsmerized.

When the deal was made, New York Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen — as did many other fans — championed the move, touting Robinson Cano‘s well-documented track record of consistency (despite a 2018 suspension for performance-enhancing drug use) and the sky’s-the-limit ceiling of young right-handed closer, Edwin Diaz.

Sending off Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak‘s inflated contracts off-set Cano’s bloated salary to an extent, but the price of Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn — as well as right-hander, Gerson Bautista — to acquire Diaz, 25 and the American League’s save leader in 2018, was almost immediately seen as too costly.

Anyone with a rooting interest in the Mets minor-league system knew Kelenic was something special, and he’s proven as much thus far. Through 64 games between Single-A West Virginia and Advanced-A Modesto, the 19-year-old centerfielder is slashing .296/.375/.558 with 13 homers, 16 doubles, and 37 RBIs. Clearly, the Wisconsin native is well on his way to a bright future in this game. Baseball America recently ranked him as the No. 25 prospect in baseball.

Dunn, 23, has pitched well with Double-A Arkansas this season. Over 13 starts (65 innings), the right-handed Freeport, LI native owns a 3.46 ERA with 1.26 WHIP, 81 strikeouts, and 20 walks. His fastball still sits in the mid-to-high 90s, and his offspeed stuff all rates well. He’s another potential difference maker in the works.

As for Bruce, now with the Phillies and healthy, his power prowess is at the highest it’s been since before he re-signed with the Mets ahead of the 2018 season (three years, $36 million).

Over 256 plate appearances between Seattle and Philadelphia, the 32-year-old has 21 homers, 48 RBIs, 15 doubles, but sports a paltry .236/.293/.571 slash line.

In any case, his value is apparent. His 1.1 wins above replacement (FanGraphs) is good for 37th among qualified MLB outfielders. If that’s what a line like that can produce, one could argue that the juice is worth the squeeze.

Swarzak, 33, is having himself a resurgent season with Atlanta. Since being traded from Seattle to the Braves on May 20, the veteran left-hander has a 0.54 ERA over 16 relief appearances (16.2 innings) with 20 strikeouts and six walks. Looks like someone found their stuff, huh?

So, as we watch Seattle’s (and now Philly’s and Atlanta’s) return prosper, making Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto look like a darn genius for starting negotiations asking for Jeff McNeil and “settling” for Kelenic and Dunn, we in Flushing have the distinctly sour privilege of watching things unfold from another perspective.

Cano’s first season in Queens has been marred by injury and underperformance. Despite a brief hot stretch early on (.400/.449/.600 over 49 plate appearances from April 12 to April 26), the 36-year-old came into Thursday’s series finale versus the Phils with an anemic .223/.271/.360 slash line and just four home runs.

For someone who’s set to make somewhere in the ballpark of $100 million over the next five seasons, this dropoff is incredibly alarming.

What’s happening with the true centerpiece of Van Wagenen’s initial move at the helm of the Mets, Edwin Diaz, is, in this writer’s opinion, simply a speed bump in the road for an incredibly talented young hurler.

The 25-year-old righty entered May with a 1.54 ERA over his first 13 appearances (11.2 innings), looking every bit the player he was advertised as. But once the calendar turned, so did Diaz’ fortunes.

Since May 1, Diaz has pitched to a 4.74 ERA with a .303/.357/.487 slash line against, 29 strikeouts, and six walks over 19 innings of work (19 games). That’s not including his blown save/implosion on Thursday afternoon, capping off a nightmarish four-game sweep at the hands of the Phils.

Things are bad at the moment, make no mistake about it. But there’s still time for Diaz to become the player this organization thought they were acquiring. In all honesty, I’m fully confident he’ll get back there in short order.

As for Cano, he’s going to need some sort of second half to win back some of his staunch critics here in Flushing. For what it’s worth, he looks just as disappointed in himself as we are in what we’ve seen thus far. Onward and upward.

Van Wagenen’s splash, while gutting the Mets’ farm system of two of its top talents, could have theoretically worked out for all parties involved. Though no one anticipated Cano’s productivity to drop so sharply or Diaz to struggle so mightily after an elite start to his Mets tenure.

Hopefully, there’s still time to tip the scales back in the Mets’ favor.

The post Mets’ Trade For Cano And Diaz Keeps Looking Worse appeared first on Metsmerized.