The Mets had just taken a 2-1 lead thanks to a two-run single off the bat of J.D. Davis as they headed to the bottom of the seventh inning. Mets starting pitcher Steven Matz actually started the rally with a two-out single.
Matz hit for himself because Mickey Callaway‘s intention was to leave him in the game for the bottom of the seventh inning. In fact, when Matz went up to plate, Seth Lugo had yet to start warming up in the bullpen.
Matz was at only 79 pitches and hadn’t allowed a baserunner since the second inning. Moreover, Matz is a guy that has actually fared well later in outings with a .688 career OPS against him from pitches 76-100. Compare that to .872 OPS for pitches 1-25, .679 OPS for pitches 26-50, .760 OPS for pitches 51-75, and actually his best (though small sample size) is .670 OPS against 100+ pitches.
Despite having thrown only a few warm pitches, Lugo entered the game to start the bottom of the seventh inning.
Lugo is the Mets best reliever, there’s no doubt about that and he’s been one of the best in baseball for the last month or so. His failure was unexpected, but it was a questionable move even without hindsight for multiple reasons.
Given that Lugo clearly didn’t have enough time to warm up, the better course of action would’ve been to let Matz start the seventh inning with Seth continuing to get ready.
Lugo would give up five runs and record only one out. Mets manager Mickey Callaway still felt he made the right move, “I’ll make that move 100 times out of 100.”
The Mets were in a tight game meaning that Lugo was highly likely to pitch, that’s not really where the second guessing is coming from, it’s about when he should’ve pitched. Matz was in cruise control, at only 79 pitches, and Lugo didn’t have ample time to warm up. Why not try to push Matz further so there would be the potential for the Mets to only need Lugo out of the pen?
By bringing in Lugo to start the seventh you also insured that you would have to use at least one more reliever in the game. That might have been unnecessary had Callaway given Matz the seventh. Callaway noted after the game that his pre-game plan was to use Lugo for the seventh and eighth inning then some combination for Edwin Diaz and Justin Wilson for the ninth.
The other part of bringing Lugo in at the time was Callaway double-switching out Davis – one of his best hitters – with a high likelihood of him getting another at-bat in a tight game for Aaron Altherr.
Sure enough, the spot where Davis was hitting came up in a huge spot in the ninth inning with the Mets now trailing. Luis Guillorme hit in that spot as the tying run. Now, Guillorme came up clutch again with an RBI single, but there’s a far better chance than Davis (.519 SLG) has an extra base hit in that situation than Luis (.286 SLG).
In the end, the Mets suffered a heart-breaking defeat for their third straight loss and dropped them three games out of the second Wild Card spot.
