It is paramount to preface the fluidity and the precariousness of the day-to-day state of the Mets when taking this next leap. As of the morning of July 5, the boys in blue are 12.5 games back in the division, 6.5 in the Wild Card, nine games under .500, and are on the precipice of sell-mode heading into sweeps week hosting the crosstown juggernaut.

In short, it’s not good. But whether you are among the few hanging true to Tug’s “Ya Gotta Believe” or the masses that believe the season is lost, there may be a case to lock up one of the few valuable trade chips in Zack Wheeler.

Let us also lay forth two quick disclaimers before making the case to keep Zack. First, if any team offers a haul of assets, say 2-3 shiny new toys near-ready to make an impact, you listen.  Second, if there happens to be any chance of a wink-wink agreement between Zack and Brodie in that even after a trade he would still return to the Mets in the off-season, you listen.  Otherwise, here is the case to extend Wheeler.

State of Mets Pitching

Bonafide ace, Jacob deGrom, is here through 2022, potentially 2024 (if he and the club exercise their respective options). Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are here through 2021 pending further discussions with regards to extensions of their own (fodder for future compositions). Jason Vargas, (kudos that he’s even being discussed here, thanks to his recent return to stability in the rotation) has a club option next year. He’s due another $8,000,000 in 2020 unless the club declines and pays him the $2,000,000 buyout.  (In April, you would have gone all-in on the latter. But with each solid start, the Mets may be more likely to chance the former.)

Farm hopeful Anthony Kay is likely next in line to crack the future five, though the jury may still be out based on some inconsistencies since his recent promotion to Syracuse, sporting an ERA over nine, a WHIP of two, and 4.5 BB/9 in his first four starts. And we all know where Future Stars participant Justin Dunn has been shipped off to (and for whom).

Thus, the 2020 rotation is looking like deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, and potentially Vargas, with several curious question marks after that. Sure, Van Wagenen can easily secure a starter in FA. But can we trust management to pony up for the likes of Madison Bumgarner or Gerrit Cole? Or do they settle for one of the litany of second/third tier starters of the Vargas ilk? The point is, after starters #1, 2 and 3, there are serious vagaries all the way down the organization’s pipeline.  Wheeler could prove all the more significant.

Recent History of Selling

Ironically, you’d have to look back to the acquisitions of Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard to spot their most recent successful sales. Since then, their selling has been more dumping, ie: Curtis Granderson, Addison Reed, Jay Bruce, etc.

Sadly, the fans of Flushing have grown appropriately wary of management’s intentions come sell time. If Brodie proves the contrary, he could seek to convince Fred & Jeff to eat the salary of the departed in order to seek a more profitable return. History has shown us otherwise. Wheeler’s staying put could prove all the more profitable.

Wheeler’s Value

During a brief interview at the beginning of the season, Zack was pretty transparent about his future, telling SNY in May, “It’s everybody’s number one goal to make it to free agency, that’s where you really make your money and sort of set your career.”

He also went on to self-advocate candidly in stating that he’d like to remain a Met but being this close to free agency, it would cost the club virtually what he feels he’d garner come the ensuing off-season. Translation: the Mets will have to cough up a few shekels if they want to lock Zack up.

Assessing one’s market value has grown increasingly murky given the collective reluctance of MLB executives these past few off-seasons. If you asked even as recently as three years ago, you’d have to think Zack could warrant a minimum of 5 years at $20,000,000 annually. But with the exception of the fortunate few, executives have made it clear they are looking for lesser commitments, both in terms of years and dollars.

One could hazard to guess the ceiling for Zack could be Patrick Corbin’s prize of 6 years at $140,000,000. But this type of player-friendly deal has become more the exception than the norm. Throw in Wheeler’s injury history and start-to-start inconsistency and you’d have to guess his value is lower. If Zack was a free agent after his 2018 second half, he may have cashed in big, but he’s trended back to normalcy, mixing flashes of brilliance with head-scratching clunkers.

If Brodie could pull off a Cashman and snag Zack for the price paid for J.A. Happ this past off season, 3 years at $51,000,000 (including a vesting option), it would be a coup for the club. Happ was coming off an exemplary run with the Yanks, pitching to a 7-0 record in 11 starts, an ERA of 2.69 with a 10.3 K/IP in 11 starts in pinstripes. But you could argue the dud he laid in the ALDS left a sour last impression. Wheeler is also 29 years of age to Happ’s 36, thus you’d have to expect a higher demand.

If management would be willing to find a few dollars, crafting a creative contract could be enticing enough to keep Zack around before a bidding war ensues among the 29 other buyers. How about this: five years, $85,000,000, ($70,000,000 guaranteed). This would include an opt-out after year three, giving him another chance at free agency at the reasonable age of 32. The fifth year could be a team option with a reasonable buyout.  Thus:

2020 – $14,000,000

2021 – $15,000,000

2022 – $17,000,000 (player opt-out after 2022)

2023 – $18,000,000 (club option after 2023 with buyout of $6,000,000)

2024 – $21,000,000

It may take more, perhaps upwards of $90-$100 million over 5 years to secure Zack. Anything higher, the juice may not be worth the squeeze.

There is certainly a wheel of chance when it comes to Zack. He’s been inconsistent. He’s been brilliant. He’s had injuries. He’s been healthy. He could demand more. He could opt for security. He’s grown comfortable in the bright lights of Queens. He’s grown up a fan of Atlanta. He likes the Mets. He likes free agency.

Securing Wheeler before the 29 other diners sit at the table could ensure the Mets have their younger four hurlers through the next few years.  Wheeler’s presence could prove all the more stabilizing.