As you know, the Mets have traded left-handed starting pitcher Jon Niese to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for switch-hitting second baseman Neil Walker. From the reaction on social media it appears there’s a good chunk of fans who don’t like the deal. I’d like to point out six reasons why this was a fantastic trade for the Mets.
Neil Walker is really good at baseball
In 2010, his first full season, Walker finished 5th in Rookie of the Year voting. He has not let up and since then, Walker has a career .273/.338/.433 slash line, averaging 136 games, 16 home runs, 29 doubles, and 70 RBI per season. He also won a Silver Slugger award in 2014 for NL second basemen.
Last season was more of the same, as he hit .269/.328/.427 with 16 home runs and 71 RBI to go with a .325 wOBA and 108 wRC+. Slightly lower than his career average, but nothing to be worried about. He did appear in 151 games, and that consistent durability he has shown throughout his career is another reason why he is so valuable.
Defensively he is slightly below average, but definitely an upgrade over Daniel Murphy. He has never made more than 9 errors in a season, and in 2015 he made only 7 in 1,224.2 innings. The Pirates have many sinker-throwing pitchers such as A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Charlie Morton, and Tony Watson, so he’s had plenty of opportunities. He is very fundamentally sound and will rarely make an error.
Draft Picks
Because Daniel Murphy turned down the qualifying offer the Mets extended to him this offseason, the Mets will receive a compensatory first-round draft pick in the 2016 draft. If the Mets had re-signed Murphy, they never would have gotten that extra pick.
Furthermore, Neil Walker will be a free agent after the 2016 season. He should be one of the top second basemen on the market at only 31 years old. Considering he is almost an identical player to Ben Zobrist, except for the position flexibility, he would probably command a similar contract. From the sound of it, he’ll also get to play some third base for the Mets.
Taking all this into consideration, there’s a good chance that the Mets will extend Walker a qualifying offer following this season, which he will almost certainly reject. This means a compensatory draft pick in for the team in the 2017 draft as well.
$ Money $
Jon Niese will be paid $9 million this season, with club options for $10M in 2017 and $11M in 2018. Walker is expected to make $10-11 million in arbitration this offseason, which is more expensive in the immediate future, but also has no financial commitment in the long term.
After Walker walks, barring any setbacks, Dilson Herrera will almost surely be ready to take over as New York’s primary second baseman. He will be very cheap and Michael Cuddyer will be off the books as well, leaving the Mets plenty of money to possibly extend the contracts of one or more crucial players like Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Conforto, etc.
Dilson Herrera May Not Quite Be Ready
Many people think 21 year-old Dilson Herrera is ready to take over the role at second base, but this deal allows him another full season to develop without rushing. He could certainly be included on the Major League roster, maybe in a platoon with Walker against left-handed starters (more on that later).
If Herrera is not ready yet, however, the Mets could keep him in AAA Las Vegas knowing the keystone is manned for the season.
Four Young Guns, Five When You Count Wheeler
I’ve always been a fan of Jonathon Niese. He put in over 1,000 innings of work for the Mets which will not soon be forgotten. But unfortunately for him, the Mets have the four guys in that picture. They have four incredibly talented pitchers, all of whom are arguably capable of winning a Cy Young Award at some point. They all certainly have the potential to do so.
The Mets really don’t need Niese anymore. What they need right now is a stopgap for half a season until Zack Wheeler, another talented young flamethrower, comes back from Tommy John. They can go to the free agent market or use internal options like Logan Verrett or Rafael Montero, and won’t have to pay $9 million for that pitcher like they would have paid Niese.
The Mets also need better defense behind these guys. While Neil Walker is no Brandon Phillips at second base, he is definitely better than Daniel Murphy and will probably save some runs for the Mets this season.
Lineup Flexibility
Walker hit in every spot in the lineup except leadoff in 2015. His best and most frequent spot was second, where in 198 at-bats he hit .293/.344/.475 with 7 home runs and 2 stolen bases. He also batted 4th, 5th, and 6th quite often and has proven he can hit anywhere in the lineup.
The fact that he is a switch hitter also helps greatly. While he is far better as a left handed hitter against right handed pitching, he is no slouch batting righty against lefties.
Career against RHP: 2668 PA, .275/.343/.457, 87 home runs, 141 doubles, 13 triples
Career against LHP: 758 PA, .260/.317/.338, 6 home runs, 33 doubles, 1 triple
As you can see, he has little to no power from the right side of the batters box, but still hits for a decent average. Terry Collins could choose to sit him against lefties, either utilizing a straight platoon with Dilson Herrera at second base, or shifting Wilmer Flores to second and starting Ruben Tejada at shortstop.
I love this trade, but I don’t think the Mets are done yet, as I think they must continue to look for bullpen help and resolve the center field situation with an everyday player or a platoon partner for Juan Lagares. Regardless, this was a fantastic deal and absolutely helps the team. I don’t see any cons to the deal, but if you do, comment below I’d love to hear it. Let’s Go Mets!
