Marcus Stroman has until Wednesday to make a decision that would have seemed obvious just one year ago. The 29-year-old starting pitcher has until then to either accept or decline the $18.9 million qualifying offer.

If Stroman declines, he will become a free agent for the first time in his career, but any team signing him will be forced to give the Mets draft compensation in return. On the other hand, Stroman could take the one-year contract and hit the open market next year without being tied to a qualifying offer.

Coming into the 2020 season, it would have seemed like a no-brainer for Stroman to decline this offer and test the open waters. He was slated to potentially be the top starting pitcher on the market and may have been able to enjoy a similar market as Zack Wheeler did last offseason. Wheeler cashed in on a five-year, $118 million deal.

Unfortunately for Stroman, the entire economics of baseball have been flipped upside down due to the losses MLB sustained with the pandemic, so team’s may not be spending this winter.

Also with Stroman missing the beginning of the season due to a calf tear and then subsequently opting out due to concerns over COVID, he is no longer slated to be the top starting pitcher on the market. Instead, Trevor Bauer is going to be considered the best starter in free agency, as he is likely to win the NL Cy Young Award.

This leaves Stroman with a really difficult decision. Try to find a lucrative long-term deal in a market that no one can predict, or stay in New York for one year and hit the market again ahead of his age-31 season in 2022.

According to an article by Mike Puma of the New York Post, Stroman is actually leaning towards declining the qualifying offer to become a free agent. Puma quoted an industry source in the piece, who said as much, but there are also some that caution Stroman against making that decision.

“I would accept the qualifying offer,” a National League executive told Puma. “He sat out a year, he’s not a big guy and he’s from [Long Island]. In a world where nobody claims a $10 million Brad Hand, it’s hard to turn your nose up to one year and $18.9 million.”

ESPN insider Buster Olney also believes that Stroman should strongly consider accepting the qualifying offer, before testing the market again next year.

“For Stroman’s agent, Brodie Schofield, there is an easy argument to be made to accept the qualifying offer. For 2021, Stroman could make really good money, and then hopefully get back out into the open market under more favorable financial conditions.”

Looking ahead to the free agent class of 2022, the list of starting pitchers is headlined by older veterans like Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. Noah Syndergaard may be the most attractive name in that class, but he still has to prove himself coming off Tommy John surgery.

If Stroman decides to bet on himself and take the qualifying offer, he could become most desirable pitcher in free agency if he has a big season. Then again, if Stroman were to get hurt again or have a down-year, he would be risking the long-term financial flexibility he might able to find now.

The clock is ticking, as Stroman and his agent have less than a week to decide what his market will be and if it makes sense to turn down $18.9 million for the 2021 season.