The 60-game season in 2020 may be a challenge for the Mets reconfigured starting rotation.
During the original 2020 spring training in March, Mets starter Noah Syndergaard went down with an injury that required Tommy John surgery. As a result, Syndergaard will be lost for the abbreviated 2020 campaign.
Luckily for the Mets, GM Brodie Van Wagenen added depth to the rotation this offseason with the signings of Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello. The Mets will now rely on those two pitchers much more than they had originally planned.
In one sense, Van Wagenen deserves credit for adding two major league starters. However, both pitchers come to New York with large question marks attached to their potential 2020 production.
Wacha had injury-plagued seasons in 2016 and 2018, and though healthy in 2019, was removed from the Cardinals’ rotation after nine starts, posting a 5.59 ERA as a starter.
Porcello has had a strange ride over the past several years, winning the AL Cy Young award in 2016 with Boston. He proceeded to lead the AL in losses (17) in 2017, but rebounded in 2018, pitching to a 17-7 record with a 4.28 ERA. Porcello struggled in 2019, with a record of 14-12 and a league-worst 5.52 ERA.
Before Syndergaard’s injury, the prevailing thought was that Porcello would be in the rotation, with Wacha serving as a bullpen piece and spot starter. Now, the Mets must rely on both, as they will comprise 40% of the rotation. The 2020 season will add an additional layer of complexity for the Mets.
In a typical season, the fifth starter is occasionally skipped, particularly early in the season due to more frequent off days. The 2020 season will be compressed with 60 games in 66 days, meaning that teams will get less than one off day per week. Therefore, in a five-man rotation, all starters will be required to carry a fairly equal share of game starts.
In a 60-game season, each game will carry a greater weight, the equivalent 2.7 times the relevance of a single game in a 162-game season.
For context, a losing streak of four games will take on the impact of losing 11 in a row. With the increased importance of every game, teams will have a small margin for error from all of their starters. The Mets are well-stocked in the front of their rotation, with Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, and Marcus Stroman. The fourth and fifth starters are unknown quantities, and will have a big say in Mets 2020 season.
The 2020 season, to put it mildly, will be a season like no other. There will be new rules, no fans, and taxi squads. However, perhaps the most significant change will be the season’s length, just 37% of a normal season. The old line of, “it’s early, it’s just one game” will not apply.
The Mets will have to hope that Brodie Van Wagenen’s pitching acquisitions have set them up well for the sprint of a season that will begin in late July.
