Series Preview: Surging Mets Finish First Half in San Diego

The New York Mets (41-46) just finished off a three-game sweep of the first-place Arizona Diamondbacks, extending their winning streak to five. Max Scherzer, Kodai Senga, and Carlos Carrasco gave the team quality innings, while Francisco Álvarez and Francisco Lindor provided the power at the plate. It was a great few days for a Mets team that is looking to finish the first half of the season on a strong note.

Buck Showalter‘s team will be going up against the San Diego Padres (41-46), who are 8.5 games out of first place in the National League West. A case can be made that the Padres have been the most disappointing team in baseball, especially when you consider all the individuals they have. San Diego is led by Fernando Tatís Jr., Manny Machado, and Juan Soto, three of the most electrifying position players in the game. Will either of these teams be able to make a push for a spot in the postseason down the stretch? Here are some important notes to look for in each of the three pitching matchups.

Friday, July 7, 2023: RHP Justin Verlander (3-4, 3.66 ERA) vs. RHP Yu Darvish (5-6, 4.84 ERA)

Justin Verlander is coming off his most dominant performance in a Mets uniform. On Jul. 1 against the San Francisco Giants, the veteran allowed a single run while striking out six in seven innings. Verlander was able to utilize his breaking stuff to near perfection, giving hitters fits all afternoon. The right-hander has yet to flourish in consecutive starts this season, so that will be on the minds of many in the opening game of the series. Verlander has impressed in his limited opportunities against the Padres, going 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA in two career starts. He will look to improve on his 5.67 ERA on the road, something that has held him back so far in 2023.

Yu Darvish has not pitched since Jun. 21 against the Giants due to what has been described as a non-COVID-19-related viral illness. Before his absence, the right-hander was in the middle of a difficult stretch, giving up 14 runs over his last three starts. Darvish may not be having one of his best seasons, but his numbers against the Mets throughout his career are strong. He is 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA in nine career starts against the New York. Darvish will look to reignite his season in his eighth home start of the season, going 2-3 with a 3.64 ERA in the previous seven.

Saturday, July 8, 2023: LHP David Peterson (2-6, 6.61 ERA) vs. LHP Blake Snell (5-7, 3.03 ERA) 

David Peterson has returned from Triple-A Syracuse with much more consistency than previously seen, giving the Mets quality innings from the backend of their rotation. On Jun. 27, the left-hander threw six scoreless innings against the Milwaukee Brewers. Five days later, Peterson gave up one run on three hits in four innings against the Giants. The Mets would certainly like to see him pitch at least five innings, but other than that, the 27-year-old has provided a huge lift to a pitching staff that has underperformed for a large part of this season. Peterson has appeared against the Padres twice in his career, going 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA in 6 2/3 innings.

Don’t get fooled by his overall record. Blake Snell has been the best pitcher for the Padres in 2023, despite having seven losses through 17 starts. For the first time in a few years, the left-hander is showcasing the dominance he had as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Snell’s changeup and curveball have kept hitters off-balanced, using each of those pitches to play off his four-seam fastball. He was remarkable in the month of June, pitching to a 3-1 record with a 0.87 ERA in 31 innings. Snell will look to continue his success against the Mets, a team he is 3-4 against with a 3.08 ERA throughout his career.

Sunday, July 9, 2023: RHP Max Scherzer (8-2, 4.03 ERA) vs. RHP Joe Musgrove (7-2, 3.56 ERA)

Max Scherzer is not having the type of season he would have liked, but to his credit, he has given the Mets a chance to win in almost all of his starts. At the end of the day, that is the most important thing for a pitcher of his caliber. It does help that the offense is averaging 5.05 runs per game when the veteran is on the mound, so the run support has certainly helped him. That was on full display against the Diamondbacks on Jul. 4, as the Mets scored eight runs in the opening game of that series. Scherzer will look to lower his ERA against a team he has a lot of success against in his career. The right-hander is 7-3 with a 2.76 ERA in 18 starts against the Padres.

Joe Musgrove had a slow start to this season, finishing the month of May with a 5.64 ERA. But since then, the right-hander has been much more consistent, going out there and giving the Padres length every fifth day. Musgrove is coming off his best start of the season, allowing one run to score on three hits while striking out 11 in seven innings against the Los Angeles Angels on Jul. 4. In order for the Padres to reach their ultimate goal, the former Pittsburgh Pirate needs to perform like an ace. Despite his success against the Mets in Game 3 of the Wild Card series, Musgrove does not have good career numbers versus New York. He is 1-5 with a 5.83 ERA in 29 1/3 innings across six appearances.