Series Preview: Reckoning in Atlanta

It’s crunch time for the New York Mets (53-33) as they head to Atlanta to take on the Braves (52-35). The Braves had a historic month of June, going 21-6 and making up a ton of ground on the Mets, who once led the division by ten and a half games. The Mets’ lead is now down to a game and a half. At the end of this three-game series, the Mets will either find themselves still in first place in the NL East, or they’ll be looking up at the Braves.

The Mets are coming into this series having split a four-game series with the Marlins. The big issue for New York was the Marlins’ starting pitching. The Mets offense was held scoreless by the Marlins’ starters in games three and four and the Mets were shut out completely in game four.

Part of the problem for the Mets was that they are dealing with injuries and other absences. Starling Marte and James McCann both departed early from game three, Marte due to groin tightness and McCann due to an oblique injury. McCann is now on the injured list and expected to miss weeks, while Marte is day-to-day. The Mets will also be without the services of Jeff McNeil while in Atlanta. McNeil will be on the paternity list for three days, as his wife is due to give birth shortly.

While the Mets offense has definitely cooled off a bunch recently, they have still gotten some decent production over the last week, especially from their outfielders. Marte, Mark Canha, and Brandon Nimmo all have solid numbers over their last seven games. On the pitching side, Edwin Diaz has continued to be lights out, and the Mets got solid starts from Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams in the series against the Marlins.

The Braves are coming into this series off a three-game sweep of the Nationals. Atlanta followed up their 21-6 June by going 8-2 so far to start July. Their excellent run has been powered in part by their offense. And powered is definitely the right word; they have hit an NL-leading 133 home runs this season and are behind only the Yankees for the MLB lead. The Braves pitching staff has also been excellent this year; they are second only to the Dodgers in the NL for ERA.

Shortstop Dansby Swanson is the hottest hitter on the Braves right now. He’s slashing .302/.357/.491 and his OPS+ is 130. Third baseman Austin Riley has the team lead in homers and RBIs, with 23 home runs and 56 RBIs. On the pitching side, Max Fried and Kyle Wright have been the Brave’s best starters.

Like the Mets, the Braves are also dealing with injuries and other absences. Closer Kenley Jansen has been on the IL since July 4 because of an irregular heartbeat, something he has dealt with before. Second baseman Ozzie Albies is on the 60-day IL after fouling a ball off his foot and fracturing it. The fracture needed to be stabilized with surgery and Albies is not expected back until at least mid-August. Finally, centerfielder Adam Duvall was placed on the paternity list on July 8. Prior to going on the paternity list, Duvall was dealing with a hand injury he suffered after getting hit by a pitch on July 2.

Finally, news broke Sunday evening that the Braves acquired Robinson Cano from the Padres for cash considerations. According to Jon Heyman of the NY Post, Cano could be added to the major league roster as soon as Monday.

Monday, July 11, 2022: RHP Max Scherzer (5-1, 2.26 ERA) vs. LHP Max Fried (9-2, 2.52 ERA)

Scherzer returned from his time on the IL in fabulous fashion against the Reds. He tossed six scoreless innings, giving up two hits and striking out 11. Of course, the Reds are in last place in the NL Central, and historically Scherzer has always dominated the Reds. The Braves’ lineup will be a real test for Scherzer Monday night. In his career, Scherzer is 10-9 against the Braves with 3.88 ERA in 157 2/3 innings. At Truist Park in Atlanta, Scherzer’s has a 3.71 ERA against the Braves in 34 innings.

Fried has had a great first half of the season for the Braves this year and has made his first All-Star team as a result. In his last outing, against the Cardinals, Fried pitched six scoreless innings, giving up five hits and striking out four. Fried has generally pitched well against the Mets, and he has a 2.80 ERA in 74 innings against them in his career. Fried pitched against the Mets earlier this season on May 2. He went six innings, giving up two runs and striking out six.

Tuesday, July 12, 2022: LHP David Peterson (5-1, 3.48 ERA) vs. RHP Spencer Strider (4-2, 2.60 ERA)

Peterson’s start against the Rangers before he went on the paternity list was his best start of the season. He gave up three runs over six innings of work and he struck out ten, matching his career high. His first start after returning from the paternity list, against the Reds, was not as successful. Though his pitch count was similar (93 pitches vs. 90 against the Rangers), Peterson only made it through 3 2/3 innings, while again giving up three runs. In his career against the Braves, Peterson has a 5.84 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. He faced Atlanta earlier this season on May 3, and went five innings in that start, giving up four runs (three of them earned).

Strider has appeared in 19 games for the Braves this season, and he’s started eight of them. His ERA as a starter is 2.83, and he’s tossed 41 1/3 innings as a starter. As a reliever he’s pitched 24 1/3 innings and has a 2.22 ERA. Strider’s last outing was against the Cardinals. He went six innings in that start, giving up two hits and striking out 12. In his career, Strider has only faced the Mets as a reliever. In 2 1/3 innings of work across two relief outings against the Mets, Strider has a 3.86 ERA.

Wednesday, July 13, 2022: RHP Chris Bassitt (6-6, 3.94 ERA) vs. RHP Charlie Morton (5-3, 4.21 ERA)

Bassitt returned from the Covid-IL on July 8 to face the Marlins. That outing was his third in a row against the Marlins, but he pitched well despite the familiarity. He went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two runs on six hits and striking out three. Bassitt faced the Braves for the first time in his career earlier this season on May 2. He pitched well, even though he ultimately took the loss that game. He gave up three runs in seven innings of work, striking out eight.

Morton’s last outing was against the Nationals. He went seven innings, giving up two runs on four hits and striking out seven. In his career against the Mets, Morton has a 3.49 ERA in 80 innings of work. Morton faced the Mets earlier this season, on May 1. He went 5 2/3 innings, giving up five runs (four of them earned).

Prediction:

With their depleted roster and the pitching matchups they face in this series, it’s tough to see the Mets coming away with a series victory against the Braves. I think the Mets will leave Atlanta in second place in the NL East, but I would be thrilled to be wrong.