Series Preview: Mets Return Home to Face Phillies

Headed home after a 3-3 road trip to Denver and San Francisco, the Mets return to Citi Field on their first “losing streak” since April 10-11, when the club dropped consecutive games against Washington and Philadelphia. Now, it’s important to note that “losing streak” is in quotations because the Mets have not dropped three consecutive games all season. In fact, they’ve only dropped back-to-back games on two occasions this season, including this past week when the Giants took the final two games of their three-game set. The rubber match was San Francisco’s all along, who jumped out to a 5-0 lead after the first inning and sent rookie starter Thomas Szapucki packing to Syracuse after just 1 1/3 innings.

Despite the recent mini-slump, the Mets are still rolling. They sit at 29-17, tied for the second-most wins in the National League, and retain a comfortable 7.5 game lead in an otherwise weak NL East. Highlights of last week included: a dominant pitching performance in a 2-0 shutout win at Coors Field; a 13-3 drubbing of the Giants backed by home runs from Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Mark Canha; a 13-12 dramatic loss to the Giants, but one that saw the Mets take leads of 11-8 and 12-11 in the eighth and ninth innings, respectively, continuing their 2022 theme of unbelievable late-inning comebacks.

Over in Philadelphia, the Phillies continue to play sub-.500 baseball, and are tied for second place in the NL East with the Braves. They most recently split a four-game series in Atlanta, and earlier in the week went 1-2 against both the Padres and Dodgers. The good news for the Phillies this weekend is that Kyle Schwarber has been one of the best hitters against the Mets in recent memory. In his career against the Mets, Schwarber has an amazing 16 home runs and 32 runs batted in while slashing .321/.407/.716. If you’re a bettor, you’d be wise to back Schwarber hitting a home run at least once this weekend. Already this season, Schwarber has three homers against his favorite opponent.

On an interesting scheduling note, the Mets will play the Phillies for already the fourth series this season, despite not having played division rival Miami once yet all year.

Friday May 27, 2022: RHP Carlos Carrasco (4-1, 3.50 ERA) vs. LHP Bailey Falter (0-1, 3.75 ERA) 

Carlos Carrasco has surprisingly not faced the Phillies all season, despite the Mets three series against the Phils’ already this year. Nonetheless, Carrasco has had an impressive bounce-back start to 2022 after a disappointing start to his Mets career last season. In his latest start, Carrasco allowed just one run in 5 1/3 innings in the thin air of Denver, picking up his fourth win of the year. After a rough end to April, Carrasco has posted a 2.59 ERA in four May starts.

Bailey Falter, the second-year pitcher who has been used almost exclusively as a reliever during his brief Major League career, will make just his third big league start on Friday evening. In his first start of 2022, Falter lasted 4 2/3 innings, allowing one run on five hits while walking none and striking out four. As a reliever, this season, Falter has closed out three games, although two of which the Phillies already had a substantial lead. In his rookie season, Falter posted a 5.61 ERA across 33 2/3 mostly-relief innings.

Saturday, May 28, 2022: RHP Taijuan Walker (2-0, 2.70 ERA) vs. RHP Zach Eflin (1-3, 3.65 ERA)

Taijuan Walker is another Mets pitcher who has rebounded very nicely after a rough 2021 – specifically, a very rough second half of the season – as he currently holds a 2.70 ERA this season and is coming off a marvelous seven inning shutout start in Denver. Over his last three starts, Walker has been even better, with a minuscule 1.42 ERA. His only blemish of 2022 was allowing nine hits and seven runs (six earned) in just four innings against these same Phillies on May 5.

After throwing four shutout frames in his first start of the season against Oakland on April 10, Zach Eflin has emerged as one of the Phillies better pitchers this year. He’s lasted at least six innings just three times, but those were all within his past four starts. Over his last two starts, Eflin has allowed just three runs, while striking out 17 batters across 13 innings. His last start against the Dodgers was by far the best of the season, as he struck out 12 Los Angeles batters in seven strong innings.

Sunday, May 29, 2022: TBD vs. Zack Wheeler (3-3, 3.38 ERA)

The Mets have yet to announce a starting pitcher for Sunday evening’s game, though it could be Chris Bassitt.

Outside of one rough start against the Marlins in which he allowed eight hits and seven runs in three innings, Zack Wheeler has picked up from his dominant 2021 season that saw him almost win the NL Cy Young award. In May, Wheeler has started four games, posting a 1.69 ERA, with all four of those outings being quality starts. He most recently struck out a season-high ten batters against the Braves on May 23, allowing two runs and walking no batters en route to his third victory of 2022. In his previous start, he set a season-high (at the time) with nine strikeouts, that time in seven innings against the Padres.