The New York Mets begin their second half of the season with a trio of games against the Miami Marlins. They then play a pair against the Minnesota Twins and complete the nine game road trip with four versus the San Francisco Giants. This road trip will be the last three city excursion the Mets will embark on this year.
The Mets will be meeting the Marlins for the fourth series this season, the third and final time at Marlins Park. The two teams will play a three game set in July and a four game series in August, both at Citi Field, which will complete the season series between the two teams. So far the Mets are 5-3 against the Marlins.
It’s hard to look at positives for the Mets in the first half of the season who are not named Pete Alonso or Jeff McNeil. The Mets went 40-50 in the first half and are closer in the standings to the last place Marlins than the third place Philadelphia Phillies. They just completed an eight game home stand going an uninspiring 3-5. They were 10-18 in June and find themselves at their low point of the season, ten games below .500. The Mets are 15 games below .500 against teams that are at or better than .500 (27-42).
Of course there are other Mets who have had decent first halves including Dominic Smith, Jacob deGrom and Jason Vargas who has been a very pleasant surprise. But the team has been carried by Alonso, and his 30 home runs and 1.006 OPS and by McNeil who begins the second half batting .349. McNeil will be in pursuit of an NL batting title which was last won by a Met in 2011 by Jose Reyes.
And as far as the bullpen, it has been the single leading cause as to the Mets lack of performance in the first half of 2019. Since this is a preview and not an indictment, it’s sufficient to say that since May 27, the Mets bullpen has 13 losses, a .314 opponent average, a 7.68 ERA, 6.08 FIP, and 1.81 WHIP which all rank last in the majors. For those who prefer to read the gory details, the report card of the Mets bullpen is here.
The Miami Marlins have actually fared worse than the Mets and find themselves in the cellar in the NL East with a 33-55 record. They went a respectable 13-14 in June and are 1-5 so far in July. They are coming off being swept at the hands of the red hot Washington Nationals followed by taking only one of three against the Atlanta Braves. Among their many problems is run differential and runs scored. Their run differential is -87 and they’ve plated only 312 runs in 88 games, an average of 3.5 runs per game. They are last in the league in both of these categories.
Fittingly then, the Marlins are last in the league in team batting with a BA of .240 and a .655 team OPS which also is last in the league. Shortstop Miguel Rojas leads the team with a .295 BA. Brian Anderson, the Marlins’ third baseman, leads the team in home runs with 11, runs scored with 34 and RBIs with 38. Since they are destined to be sellers before the July 31 trading deadline, the team is looking for an offensive infusion and to discard players with expiring contracts such as Sergio Romo, Neil Walker, Starlin Castro and Martin Prado just to name a few.
The Marlins have spent the better part of the last two years stockpiling young pitching. Sandy Alcantara was an All-Star for the Marlins this year. Overall, Miami ranks a decent seventh in the NL in team pitching with a 4.28 team ERA. For comparative purposes the Mets are ranked thirteenth in team pitching (4.68 ERA). Pablo Lopez leads the team with five wins. Alcantara’s 3.82 ERA is tops on the team while Trevor Richards and Caleb Smith lead the Marlins in strikeouts with 88. Sergio Romo has 16 saves for Miami.
One thing Miami can do is get the ball and field their positions. They rank fourth in the league in team defense committing only 45 errors. The Mets on the other hand are last in the NL in team defense with 65 errors.
The Marlins are managed by Don Mattingly who is well-known to New York fans due to his exploits on the field with the Yankees. He did about all a player can do except win a championship. He started managing the Marlins in 2016, after a five year stint as the skipper of the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his first year as Marlins’ manager, he led the team to 79 wins, which was the most they’ve had since 80 wins in 2010.
Friday, July 12: LHP Jason Vargas vs LHP Caleb Smith 7:10 PM
2019 Stats: Vargas 3-4 record, 3.77 ERA (4.37 FIP), 1.312 WHIP, 7.9 K’s/9, 3.8 BB/9; Smith 4-4 record, 3.50 ERA (4.38 FIP), 1.190 WHIP, 11.0 K’s/9, 2.6 BB/9
Jason Vargas hasn’t given up more than three earned runs since April 13, a span of 12 starts. Since then he has is 2-4 with a 2.76 ERA with 60 strikeouts. He has made one start this year against the Marlins, on April 2, earning the win in a 6-5 Mets victory.
Starlin Castro is 4-9 (.444 BA) with a home run lifetime against Vargas. Miguel Rojas is the only other current Marlin with multiple hits against Vargas with two.
Caleb Smith has made just one start since coming off the IL with left hip inflammation. He made the one start count as he earned the win in a 5-4 victory over the Braves. Smith game up three earned runs on only four hits. Smith has faced the Mets once this year, on April 1, and got a no-decision in a 7-3 Mets victory.
Smith has made 13 starts this year and in nine of those outings, struck out at least seven batters. His season high for K’s is 11 against the Chicago Cubs on May 7. His 11.0 K’s/9 is impressive.
Saturday, July 13: RHP Noah Syndergaard vs RHP Zac Gallen 6:10 PM
2019 Stats: Syndergaard 6-4 record, 4.68 ERA (3.98 FIP), 1.278 WHIP, 8.6 Ks/9, 2.6 BB/9; Gallen 0-1 record 4.50 ERA (2.87 FIP), 1.417 WHIP, 12.0 Ks/9, 2.8 BB/9
Whether by good fortune or dumb luck, the Mets have won in each of Syndergaard’s last four starts. In his last three outings, Noah has allowed 11 runs on 20 hits over 16.2 innings. He is pitching to a near 6.00 ERA in those starts.
Syndergaard has faced the Marlins once this year and took the loss in a 3-0 Miami win. Miguel Rojas has been the biggest thorn in Noah’s side, batting .333 (4-12) against the Mets right-hander.
Rookie Zac Gallen will be making his fourth lifetime start against New York. He is also looking for his first win. Gallen is another young Miami pitcher who throws hard and has already amassed 16 strikeouts in 12 innings. His last start was cut short after only two innings due to a lengthy rain delay.
None of the current Mets has faced the young Miami rookie.
Sunday, July 14: RHP Jacob deGrom vs RHP Sandy Alcantara 1:10 PM
2019 Stats: deGrom 4-7 record, 3,27 ERA (3.14 FIP), 1.091 WHIP, 11.2 Ks/9, 2.0 BB/9; Alcantara 4-8 record, 3.82 ERA (4.61 FIP), 1.401 WHIP, 6.2 Ks/9, 4.2 BB/9
De Grom has only one win since a 4-1 victory over the Marlins on May 11, a span of 10 games. Jacob has a more than respectable 3.29 ERA in those games, but is only 1-3. He is 2-1 versus the Marlins this year, but over his career is only 6-7 against Miami with a un-deGromlike 3.55 ERA.
Several of the Marlins have has some success against deGrom. Jorge Alfaro, Brian Anderson and Starlin Castro each are hitting over .300 lifetime against the Mets ace with Alfaro and Anderson each homering off of Jacob as well.
Alcantara is 1-1 against the Mets this year. The win was a complete game 3-0 shutout over the Amazins, the only complete game pitched by a Miami starter this year. He is coming off two consecutive losses to the Nationals to lower his record to 4-8. He has good stuff, but can be wild as his 4.2 BB/9 suggests.
Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto have each homered off the Miami All-Star, while J.D. Davis is hitting .333 off the right-hander.
Both deGrom and Alcantara pitched a 1-2-3 inning in Tuesday’s All-Star game for the National League. This should be a compelling match-up to conclude the series.
Prediction: The last time the Mets went to Marlins Park, they were swept out of town, losing all three games, the last two being shut-outs. And although a repeat of that aberration seems unlikely, respect has to be given to the Miami pitchers and defensive prowess. They can’t hit, but they are rarely blown out and are competitive in most games.
The Mets are facing an easier part of their schedule at last. It would be nice to see them make a statement against this team. But the Mets haven’t won a series seemingly since the Last Crusade (April actually) and it would be nice if they can put a halt to that skein starting Friday. The pick here is that the Mets begin the second half on a positive note and take two out of three from the Fish. Although the Mets have been lousy on the road, (17-31), it’s put-up or shut-up time for the New York Mets.
