Series Preview: Mets Look to Slow Down the Braves

After winning their first series of the season in Cincinnati, the New York Mets (3-6) are heading to Truist Park for a four-game set against the Atlanta Braves (6-2).

Over the weekend, the Mets made fewer mistakes compared to their homestand. Besides an untimely bullpen implosion on Saturday, the starting pitchers and relievers heavily contributed to a series victory. In addition, they finally saw their offense come alive. Namely, their struggling shortstop Francisco Lindor broke out of his shell with a 2-for-5 performance, headlined by his first home run of the season.

While this is a step in the right direction for the Mets, they must bring their best against the Braves. They sit atop the National League East Division and have won four of their last five games, including a series sweep against the reigning National League Champions. This series will serve as a major test for the Mets starting rotation, which has been relatively effective up to this point.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the pitching matchups for this week.

Monday, April 8, 2024: RHP Julio Teheran (2023 Statistics: 3-5, 4.40 ERA) vs. RHP Charlie Morton (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

Former Braves pitcher Julio Teheran will make his Mets debut on Monday. After spending spring training with the Orioles, Teheran decided to test the free-agent market. Consequently, the Mets sought his services after the injury bug depleted their rotation. The 33-year-old veteran offers a five-pitch arsenal that includes a curveball with a 32.8 whiff percentage in 2023. In his limited sample in 2023, he was adept at limiting walks, placing in the 96th percentile in walk rate. Teheran faced the Braves twice last season and saw very different results. While he tossed six innings of one-run ball in his first outing, the Braves collected nine runs in five innings in the next.

Familiar foe Charlie Morton will take the mound against the Mets on Monday. The 40-year-old starter looked like his usual self in his first start against the White Sox, where he pitched five 2/3 shutout innings with six strikeouts. Despite his increasing age, Morton continues to be one of the more dominant pitchers in baseball. He placed in the 88th percentile in whiff rate in 2023. Morton has seen the Mets 22 times in his career and has a 3.58 ERA against them. He did not allow any runs against the Mets in his last two starts, so the momentum is swinging in Morton’s favor for this one.

Tuesday, April 9, 2024: RHP Adrian Houser (0-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. RHP Reynaldo López (0-0, 1.50 ERA)

Adrian Houser will make his second start of the season on Tuesday. He excelled in his first start, allowing only one run in five innings with three strikeouts. Manager Carlos Mendoza pulled the plug a bit early, as Houser had only thrown 67 pitches. The Mets will need more length from Houser this time, as the bullpen can benefit from some rest during this four-game series. Like Teheran, Houser started two games against the Braves last season with varying results. While he struck out 10 in six innings in his first outing, he allowed six runs in four innings the second time.

Reynaldo López will get the start for the Braves on Tuesday. He is off to a good start this season, as he tossed six innings with five strikeouts and one run allowed in his first outing. López has earned a reputation as a strikeout pitcher, as he was in the 90th percentile for strikeout rate and the 80th percentile for whiff rate last season. While he spent the previous few seasons as a reliever, the Braves plan to use him in a varied role this season. López has a 3.77 ERA in six appearances against the Mets.

Wednesday, April 10, 2024: LHP Jose Quintana (0-1, 2.61 ERA) vs. TBD

Jose Quintana will get the ball for the Mets on Wednesday. Quintana looked much better in his second start of the season against the Reds. In 5 2/3 innings, Quintana struck out four while allowing only one run. He faced the Braves twice last season and saw varied results. In the first outing, he allowed one run in six innings. However, he allowed five runs in five 1/3 innings in the next. In each of these outings, he walked three batters. Quintana must limit the walks if he wants to survive against this potent lineup.

The Braves have yet to declare a starter for Wednesday’s game. They may either select an internal option or try to use their bullpen. That said, their bullpen has been instrumental in their early success. The bullpen tossed four 2/3 scoreless innings on Saturday after starting pitcher Max Fried allowed seven earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. This allowed the Braves offense to chip away at their large deficit, ultimately securing the come-from-behind victory.

Thursday, April 11, 2024: RHP Luis Severino (0-1, 3.60 ERA) vs. LHP Max Fried (0-0, 18.00 ERA)

Luis Severino will close out the series for the Mets. He has been better than the numbers reflect this season, with a 2.48 FIP. In each of his first two starts, there have been several defensive mishaps that impacted his performance. Despite this, he was highly effective against Cincinnati with seven strikeouts in five innings with one run allowed. Severino faced the Braves last season and allowed three earned runs in four innings with five strikeouts.

Max Fried will get the start on Thursday. Contrary to his usual production, he has been ineffective to begin the season. He has only pitched five innings in two starts and has allowed ten earned runs combined. Nevertheless, Fried is coming off an excellent 2023 season, where he was particularly adept at limiting hard contact. He placed in the 95th and 91st percentile in barrel percentage and average exit velocity. This success has translated to his performances against the Mets, as he has a 2.65 ERA in 22 appearances against them in his career

Players to Watch

Francisco Lindor (NYM)

Despite an anemic start to the season, Francisco Lindor hit his first home run of the season on Sunday. Consequently, Truist Park is the perfect place for Lindor to continue his hot streak. In six games last season in Atlanta, Lindor had eight hits, two long balls, and five RBIs. The warmer climate in Georgia could be conducive to a higher offensive output for Lindor.

Marcell Ozuna (ATL)

Braves slugger Marcell Ozuna has been solid to begin the season. In his last five games, he has nine hits, three home runs, and seven RBIs. Ozuna saw similar success against the Mets in 2023. In 10 games against the club, he collected 17 hits, 15 RBIs, and knocked out five home runs.