Series Preview: Mets Look to Cool Hot Pirates

After an impressive series victory against the Royals, the New York Mets (7-8) will host the Pittsburgh Pirates (11-5) for a three-game series.

Despite getting off to a horrific start, the Mets have picked it up as of late. They have won each of their last three sets against worthy opponents. Most recently, they just won two out of three games against the Royals in front of an energetic home crowd. The supportive home crowd will be pivotal for the Mets as they go up against a red-hot Pirates team.

Contrary to their usual performance, the Pirates are off to an excellent start this season. They enter this series tied for first place in their division. In their most recent game, they delivered an offensive onslaught to the Phillies, headlined by a Jack Suwinski grand slam.

The positive momentum of both teams should make for an exciting series in the sunny Queens weather.

That said, let’s take a look at the prospective pitching matchups.

Monday, April 15, 2024: LHP Martín Pérez (1-0, 1.89 ERA) vs. RHP Adrian Houser

Martín Pérez will open the series for the Pirates. He has been exceptional to begin the season, most recently pitching eight innings of one-run ball against the Tigers. The Pirates are reaping the benefits of signing Pérez to a one-year, $8 million deal in the offseason, as he can contribute to a playoff berth or serve as a trade asset to bring in young talent. Pérez has been dominant against the Mets in his career, with a 2.88 ERA in eight appearances. During the August 2023 series between the Mets and Rangers, Pérez tossed five scoreless innings out of the bullpen between two appearances.

Adrian Houser will get the ball for the Mets on Jackie Robinson Day. After a strong start to open the season, Houser struggled mightily in his second start in Atlanta. He lasted five innings but allowed five earned runs while only striking out one batter. While Houser generally does not profile as a strikeout pitcher, his pitch-to-contact strategy fell short against a stacked Braves offense. As a former Brewer, Houser is very familiar with the Pirates, with a 3.79 ERA in 14 appearances against them in his career. His latest performance against the Pirates was stellar, as he struck out five in six innings pitched.

Tuesday, April 16, 2024: RHP Jared Jones (1-2, 4.00 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (1-1, 3.45 ERA)

Rookie Jared Jones will take the mound on Tuesday for the Pirates. The right-handed pitcher profiles as a high-strikeout pitcher, as indicated by his placement in the 91st percentile in strikeout rate in the early part of this season. He is also in the 97th and 93rd percentile for whiff rate and chase rate. His slider has been his most deceptive pitch, generating a whiff rate of 48.4 percent when used. These metrics have translated to good performances for Jones, who has accumulated 25 strikeouts in just 18 innings to start the year. In his most recent start, he tossed 6 1/3 innings with eight strikeouts and three earned runs allowed.

Jose Quintana will pitch on Tuesday for the Mets. He has been close to his usual self to begin this season, providing consistent innings and results for the Mets. In his most recent outing, Quintana tossed 5 1/3 innings with four strikeouts and three runs allowed. At his best, Quintana is usually good for six innings, providing his bullpen with a cushion. As the weather improves and Quintana gains more reps, he should be back to his usual form. Quintana has seen the Pirates 14 times in his career and has a 3.33 ERA against them.

Wednesday, April 17, 2024: LHP Bailey Falter (1-0, 4.20 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Severino (1-1, 3.00 ERA)

Bailey Falter will close out the series for Pittsburgh. Aside from a poor start against the Marlins, Falter has been very effective in his last two starts. Among those two outings, he has tossed 11 innings of one-run ball with only five hits allowed. While his strikeout numbers have not been high, his slider has been highly effective, with a 40 percent whiff rate. Falter, who has a 2.76 ERA in his career against the Mets, most recently tossed 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball against them.

Luis Severino will take the hill for the Mets on Wednesday. In addition to passing the eye test, Severino has been highly effective to begin the season. Most recently, he tossed five innings against the Royals while allowing one run with four strikeouts. He uses his fastball nearly half the time, and it has looked very lively, with an average velocity of 96.2 miles per hour. Severino has pitched 11 innings against the Pirates in his career while allowing only one run.

Players to Watch

Harrison Bader (NYM)

After starting the season on a slow note, Harrison Bader has increased his batting average to .302 after a two-hit day against the Royals. One of those hits came in a timely fashion, as he broke the tie of a scoreless game on Sunday with an infield single. Since the Pirates are using two left-handed starting pitchers this series, Bader is due for a strong showing. This season, he is 5-for-14 against left-handed pitchers and had a .936 OPS against southpaws in 2023. His strong track record against left-handed pitching, combined with his recent hot streak, should set him up for a big series.

Joey Bart (PIT)

Since being acquired from the Giants, former top prospect Joey Bart has been off to a great start with his new team. He has played in three games with the club and knocked out two home runs in the process. While he may not be the heir apparent to Buster Posey that the Giants thought he would be, his recent performance shows that he has something left in the tank. Bart’s career .111 batting average against the Mets does not bode well for him, but perhaps the change of scenery will prove to be beneficial for the catcher.