After dropping two of their last three, the New York Mets (11-7) will be happy to return home. They were unable to take advantage of the struggling Minnesota Twins, losing the final two games of their series this week. That being said, the Mets still remain at the top of the NL East. They will start their homestand against the St. Louis Cardinals (9-9), a team caught in between as a whole. The NL Central is wide open, as it has been in recent years. A failed trade of Nolan Arenado dominated the offseason for the Cardinals. If the team is out of it come the trade deadline, talks should come back to the forefront, but for now, the Cardinals are looking to compete and win now. Let’s take a look at the four pitching matchups for this series.

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Pitching Matchups

  • Thursday: Andre Pallante (2-0, 2.20 ERA) vs. Griffin Canning (1-1, 4.20 ERA): Pallante has been utilized primarily as a reliever throughout his career. Since making his debut in 2022, he has made 141 appearances in the big leagues. Just 33 of those outings have come as a starter. For now, Pallante is looking to break through in the Cardinals’ rotation. He is 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA in eight career appearances against the Mets. Canning would have started the series finale in Minnesota, but illness forced him to get pushed back a day. He earned his first win as a Met last weekend against the Athletics, despite giving up four runs on seven hits. One thing to watch? Opponents are hitting .600 with a 1.736 OPS the third time through the order against Canning.
  • Friday: Miles Mikolas (0-2, 9.00 ERA) vs. David Peterson (1-1, 2.70 ERA): Mikolas was an All-Star in 2022 for the second time in his career. Since then, he is 19-26 with a 5.18 ERA across 70 starts – far from good. Mikolas’ numbers in 2025 are a bit misleading. He has allowed three runs or fewer in two of his first three starts. Nine runs allowed (eight earned) in 2 2/3 innings on April 6 against the Boston Red Sox have inflated his overall numbers. Peterson had his best start of the year last time out, despite earning his first loss of the young season. He pitched six innings, allowing two earned runs with five strikeouts, but most importantly, no walks. Peterson will make his first career appearance against the Cardinals in this series.
  • Saturday: Matthew Liberatore (1-1, 3.93 ERA) vs. Kodai Senga (2-1, 1.06 ERA): Like Pallante, Liberatore has worked both as a starter and reliever for the Cardinals. Of his 94 big league appearances since 2022, 27 of them have come as a starter. Liberatore, once ranked as high as the second-best prospect for the Cardinals, is looking to break out in 2025. He earned his first win of the season on Sunday, throwing six scoreless innings against the Phillies. Senga is getting more and more comfortable with each start. The right-hander was excellent against the Athletics on Sunday, throwing seven scoreless innings to earn his second win. Senga, a critical x-factor for the 2025 Mets, is reminding people of the talent he showed as a rookie in 2023.
  • Sunday: Sonny Gray (3-0, 3.13 ERA) vs. Clay Holmes (2-1, 3.66 ERA): Gray is in the second year of a three-year, $75 million deal with the Cardinals. The clear ace of the rotation has delivered early on, allowing two runs or less in three of his first four starts. Most importantly, the Cardinals are 4-0 when Gray starts. He is 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA in four career starts against the Mets. It has been far from perfect, but Holmes’ transition from reliever to starter has gone well. He got into some tough situations against the Twins on Monday, but managed his way through it. Holmes has won each of his last two starts, gaining more and more confidence. The next step for him is to complete six innings, potentially pitch into the seventh inning. There is still more to come.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

The Mets have had a good start to the season, largely due to their pitching. Their 2.38 team ERA is the best mark in all of baseball. Pete Alonso has been one of the best hitters in the game to start the year, but as a whole, the team’s offense has got to improve. The Mets’ .166 batting average with runners in scoring position ranks second to last, only ahead of the Seattle Mariners. That has to improve and quickly. The Mets have too many quality hitters to be as ineffective as they have been in those situations. No reason to panic given their overall record, but that is something important to keep an eye on over the upcoming days and weeks.

PREDICTION

The Mets enter this series losing back-to-back games for the first time this season. They are 5-1 at home, including a three-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays. I like the Mets to take three of four this weekend in front of the home crowd. Juan Soto has a big series, a much-needed one at that. The pitching continues to roll, but the story will be Mark Vientos. He had a big, walk-off home run last year against the Cardinals. I think he has a few important swings this weekend, kickstarting his season.