Series Preview: Struggling Mets Host the Struggling Dodgers

The New York Mets (22-30) will host the Los Angeles Dodgers (33-22) for a three-game series to start the week.

While the Mets have continued to disappoint on the field, they are coming off a dramatic walk-off victory on Sunday. The team entered the bottom of the ninth inning with a two-run deficit and pulled off the unlikely victory with contributions from Harrison Bader and Omar Narváez. The Mets will need any momentum they can get against the formidable Dodgers team.

The Dodgers enter this series on an uncharacteristic five-game losing streak. Despite their recent poor performance, they are still atop the National League West Division, showcasing their overall success as a unit. They will look to take advantage of a Mets team that already has their back against the wall in late May.

With the rain out on Monday, the Mets and Dodgers will now play three games in about 27 hours. That said, let’s preview the pitching matchups for this series!

Tuesday, May 27, 2024, Game 1: RHP Tyler Glasnow (6-3, 3.09 ERA) vs. RHP Tylor Megill (0-2, 3.00 ERA)

Tyler Glasnow has continued to showcase his elite repertoire this year. His 33.3 percent strikeout rate places him in the 95th percentile among qualified pitchers. He relies on four pitches, with his curveball being his most effective pitch. He uses it 17.3 percent of the time, garnering a whiff rate of 46.5 percent and an opposing batting average of just .095. While Glasnow does allow hard-hit contact at a 40.4 percent rate, he generally keeps runners off the bases, with a WHIP of just 0.91.

He tossed eight shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against the Mets earlier this year in the Dodgers’ only win in a three-game series in April.

Tylor Megill will make just his third start of an injury-riddled season. Megill’s adjustment of incorporating a split finger more frequently has warranted positive results, as he has an 85.7 percent whiff rate with the pitch. His average fastball velocity has increased from last year’s figure, now clocking in at 95.8 mph. The uptick in velocity combined with Megill’s elite extension has made it difficult for opposing hitters to track his pitches.

Tuesday, May 28, 2024, Game 2: RHP Gavin Stone (4-2, 3.60 ERA) vs. LHP Jose Quintana (1-4, 5.13 ERA)

Gavin Stone does not profile as a strikeout pitcher, with just a 16.3 percent strikeout rate. Instead, he relies on a six-pitch arsenal that has been adept at limiting hard contact. His average exit velocity of 86.5 mph and hard-hit rate of 31.6 percent both rank in the 88th percentile of each respective category. Stone’s most effective pitch has been his primarily-used changeup, featuring a whiff rate of 36.4 percent and an opposing batting average of just .192.

Jose Quintana has displayed a lot of regression this season. This has most notably emerged through his increase in barrel and hard-hit rate. While he had a 5.1 percent barrel rate and 32.5 percent hard-hit rate last year, he has a seven percent barrel rate and 46.2 percent hard-hit rate this season. The influx of hard contact has proved disastrous for Quintana, who is on pace to have arguably the worst season of his career.

Wednesday, May 29, 2024: LHP James Paxton (5-0, 3.49 ERA) vs. LHP David Peterson (2023 Stats: 3-8, 5.03 ERA)

While James Paxton’s traditional statistics appear solid, his peripherals indicate that he has benefited from some luck. Most notably, his strikeout rate and walk rate are the same at 13.5 percent, which is not an indication of effectiveness. Also, his 5.47 xERA is nearly two whole points higher than his actual ERA, which shows that he may be due for some regression. It is important to understand that statistics like xERA should be interpreted as predictors of future performance, as one shouldn’t overlook Paxton’s solid performance.

David Peterson will finally make his season debut after recovering from offseason surgery. He tossed four innings with six strikeouts and two earned runs allowed in his most recent rehab outing. Peterson looks to bounce back from a rocky 2023 season and establish his value in a crowded rotation. Perhaps he figured out a refined approach during his extensive rehab process.

Players to Watch

Mark Vientos (NYM)

Mark Vientos has taken full advantage of his limited opportunity with the club this season. In his last 25 at-bats, he is hitting .320/.414/.720 with two home runs, four RBIs, and four walks. His 19.2 percent barrel and 50 percent hard-hit rate indicate that these numbers are not a fluke. Furthermore, Vientos has limited his strikeout rate to just 16.7 percent while he is walking at an exceptional 11.1 percent rate. Although this is a small sample size for Vientos, it is promising to see this performance from him, and he should gain more playing time from it.

With a doubleheader today and a lefty going Wednesday, Vientos should see at least two starts.

Teoscar Hernández (LAD)

Teoscar Hernández has been on a hot streak in recent play. In his last seven games, he is batting .381/.519/.667 with eight hits, a home run, and five walks. This performance is part of a larger trend, as the slugger features a 13.8 percent barrel rate and 50 percent hard-hit rate this season. Although he was quiet during the first series between the Mets and Dodgers this season, he has enjoyed success against the Mets in his career with four long balls in 13 games. With two left-handed starting pitchers taking the mound for the Mets this series, Hernández will look to add to his .304/.328/.661 batting line against southpaws this season.