If the New York Mets (34-22) are going to wind up winning the National League East, take advantage of the soft spots on the schedule will be key. So far, they are 16-12 against teams below .500 this season. In comparison, the Philadelphia Phillies, who they are trying to catch, are 23-8 against teams below .500. The Mets will look to improve that against the Colorado Rockies (9-47), who own the worst record in baseball by a significant margin. They are scoring a league-worst 3.16 runs per game. Their 5.61 team ERA is also ranks dead last. Not a good combination. A strong series against the Rockies will be key. Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups.

David Peterson (23) – Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

PITCHING MATCHUPS

  • Friday: Kyle Freeland (0-7, 5.86 ERA) vs. David Peterson (3-2, 2.79 ERA): Freeland, who has spent his entire career with the Rockies, is in the midst of another difficult season. He has really struggled in the month of May, going 0-3 with a 5.76 ERA over five starts. Freeland has good numbers in his career against the Mets, owning a 2-1 record with a 3.03 ERA across 29 2/3 innings. He has yet to record a win against them since June of 2018. Peterson has had a phenomenal start to the season and he is coming off his best start yet. 7 2/3 innings pitched, two runs allowed on five hits against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Peterson now has six straight starts with allowing no more than two earned runs. Developing into one of the aces in the Mets’ rotation.

Kodai Senga (34) Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

  • Saturday: Antonio Senzatela (1-9, 6.50 ERA) vs. Kodai Senga (5-3, 1.46 ERA): Senzatela’s win-loss record is not pretty. His nine losses leads the majors. Senzatela has also allowed a league-worst 90 hits this season. Seneatela has given up at least four earned runs in each of his five starts in May, owning a 8.03 ERA during that stretch. Senga is showing why his 2023 season was a just a sign of things to come. He has reminded everyone that when healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the game . In 55 2/3 innings pitched, Senga has allowed a total of nine earned runs. A big part of his success is that he has given up just two home runs this season. His 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings is way down from his 0.9 home runs allowed in 2023.

  • Sunday: Carson Palmquist (0-3, 8.78 ERA) vs. Clay Holmes (5-3, 2.98 ERA): Palmquist made his big league debut against  the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 16. Over his first two starts, he allowed 11 earned runs across 8 1/3 innings. His last start was much better. Five innings pitched, two earned runs allowed on three hits against the Chicago Cubs Monday. Palmquist has three primary pitches: a sweeper, four-seam fastball and a sinker. Holmes threw 63 innings as a reliever for the New York Yankees last season. He is sitting at 60 1/3 innings pitched as a starter for the Mets entering this weekend. Holmes has done well in his new role, providing more length in recent weeks. Since April 20, he has thrown at least six innings in five of his last seven starts.
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Last season, the Mets jumpstarted their season in June. A 16-8 record during that month helped them gain confidence and ultimately pushed them towards a playoff berth. Unlike last year’s team, the Mets have gotten off to a strong start. But in the same way, what they do in June could go a long way towards their fate in the division. The Phillies are rolling. The Braves have recently activated the duo of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider. As summer months near, the importance of each game will heighten. Important few weeks ahead.
PREDICTION
As we saw in Wednesday’s series finale against the Chicago White Sox, winning every game, even against the worst teams in baseball. That being said, I expect the Mets to dominate this series with the starters they have on the mound. Peterson, Senga and Holmes will flourish, helping New York sweep the Rockies at home.