Series Preview: Mets Head to D.C. for Five Games

What a difference a week makes.

Last Friday night, the Mets dropped their series-opener against the Nationals 2-1, another lackluster offensive performance by a struggling lineup that seemed to lack any energy.

After Sunday’s win, Javier Baez was the center of attention, but not for a good reason. He commented that he, along with other teammates, were booing the fans in response to the fans booing the Mets. Not a good look for the Mets, whose players soon thereafter apologized.

And earlier this week, news broke that acting GM Zack Scott was arrested on DWI charges, the same night as attending an event at Steve Cohen’s house.

In essence, things could not have gotten worse for the Mets. But then, something good finally happened.

The Mets swept the Marlins in three games, with the fourth game of the series being postponed until later this month. Technically, it was only a two-game sweep, because one of those wins – the most dramatic of them all – was actually the completion on an April suspended game.

In that win, the Mets scored an incredible five runs in the bottom of the ninth with Báez sprinting around the bases to score from first on a Conforto base hit. Not only was this was one of the best comebacks in team history, it produced one of the most legendary Gary Cohen calls you’ll ever hear.

Over in Washington, it’s been a looooong second-half. The Nats did what everyone expected them to do after trading most of their star players away in July – they’ve lost many games. Currently, Washington is on a five-game losing streak and with no end in sight. The Nats were swept by the Mets in mid-August, and then managed just a single victory in Queens last week. Juan Soto and Josh Bell continue to be the team’s two clear stars. In fact, in the Nats 9-4 loss last Sunday, those two players accounted for all three Washington hits – and all three of those hits went for home runs.

Five game series are not common, let alone five game sweeps. But the Mets do have the potential to take all five games this weekend, given the current track records of both ball clubs.

Friday, September 3, 2021: RHP Rich Hill (6-6, 4.11 ERA) vs. LHP Sean Nolin (0-2, 6.57 ERA)

Rich Hill has not allowed more than three runs in an appearance since July 31. That being said, his August ERA was 4.15, which isn’t awful, but certainly isn’t great either. Since joining the Mets in late July, Hill has pitched exactly five innings in five of his seven appearances. Look for Hill to reach that mark again tonight, in what hopefully should be a stress-free game for the bullpen. Last weekend against the Nationals, allowed five hits, two runs, and struck out eight batters in, you guessed it – five innings.

Sean Nolin doesn’t have much of a sample size to gauge his talent. He’s pitched just three games this season, and that is after not pitching in the major leagues at all since 2015. However, Nolin’s earned run totals have decreased in each of his three starts. After allowing eight hits and four runs in three innings versus the Mets in his first start of 2021, Nolin improved to allow six hits and two runs in 5 1/3 innings, also against the Mets, in his last start. So this means that after today, 75% of his season starts will amazingly have been against the Mets.

Saturday, September 4, 2021 (1): RHP Marcus Stroman (9-12, 2.85 ERA) vs. RHP Erick Fedde (6-9, 5.08 ERA)

Marcus Stroman pitched two excellent games against the Nationals in August. On August 12, he allowed three hits, one run, two walks, and struck out eight batters in earning the win, in 5 1/3 innings. Last weekend on August 28, Stroman went six full innings, allowing seven hits, two runs, a walk, adding on five strikeouts. In August, Stroman posted a 3.60 ERA in six starts.

Erick Fedde had a solid day in his August 12 start versus the Mets. Fedde allowed just two runs in four innings. Facing the Mets again last weekend, he allowed six runs (five earned) in 5 1/3 innings, taking the loss. Overall in August, Fedde posted a 5.17 ERA across six starts.

Saturday, September 4, 2021 (2): RHP Tylor Megill (2-3, 4.04 ERA) vs. TBD

After posting a stellar 1.04 ERA in July, Megill’s August ERA rose to 6.44. This number includes an alarming seven home runs, four of which were allowed in one start against the Giants. Despite his struggles last month, he ended August on a high-note, earning his first victory since July 23. Last weekend against the Nats, Megill went a full five innings, allowing just one hit, two runs, three walk, while striking out five batters.

The Nationals have to yet to announce a starting pitcher for the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader.

Sunday, September 5, 2021: RHP Taijuan Walker (7-9, 3.89 ERA) vs. RHP Josiah Gray (0-2, 4.73 ERA)

Walker was one of the few Met pitchers who actually did not face the Nationals at all in August. After a rough end to July, Walker bounced back in August to turn in three quality starts. His lasting outing was a six inning, three run start against the Giants. Despite a not-too-bad 4.15 ERA last month, Walker still went 0-4, in part due to the Mets inability to score runs. In fact, the Mets managed to score a total of just eight runs in Walker’s five August starts. This start against the Nationals is a great opportunity to find the All-Star form he so often showed earlier this season.

The rookie RHP Josiah Gray pitched very well in his first five starts since being acquired by the Nationals mid-season. In that span, Gray posted a 2.89 ERA with 29 strikeouts. However, his last start against the Phillies was his worst of the season. He allowed seven hits, six runs, and three walks across four innings, earning his second loss of 2021.

Monday, September 6, 2021: RHP Trevor Williams (4-2, 4.27 ERA) vs. LHP Patrick Corbin (7-14, 6.26 ERA)

Williams has started just two games for the Mets since coming over from the Cubs, but he pitched exceptionally well in both starts. On August 12 versus the Nationals, Williams went 4 1/3 innings, allowing three hits, one run, two walks, while striking out a pair of batters. Earlier this week against the Marlins, Williams allowed four hits and one run (zero earned) in another 4 1/3 innings. He also struck out four batters compared to no walks. Williams is not a pitcher that will go deep into games, but he’s proven that he can be a shutdown pitcher for the first half of a game before handing things over to the bullpen.

Patrick Corbin has really struggled on the mound this season, and August was no different. In six August starts, Corbin went 1-5 with a 7.88 ERA. He allowed 11 home runs, including four separate starts allowing two or more home runs. The Mets are not typically a team to wow you with their power, but against Corbin, this team has the capability to blast a few long balls into the seats. However, Corbin did allow just two runs across six innings, striking out seven batters the last time he faced the Mets in June.

Prediction: This is the series that will make or break the Mets season. Falling flat against the lowly Nationals will all but end their chances of winning the division. But continuing to pick up victories against bottom-feeder teams will allow the Mets to not only climb back above .500, but it will put them in line with the Braves and Phillies for first place in the East.

Given the Mets recent hot streak, the Nationals recent struggles, and the Mets having everything to play for in this series (not to mention the pitching advantage in basically all five of these games), I think the Mets win the weekend, 4-1. Mets win Friday, split the Saturday doubleheader, and close out the holiday weekend with wins on Sunday and Monday.

If all goes right, the Mets may enter Tuesday’s game in Miami just a couple of games behind first place.

This series has all the makings of producing a memorable moment similar to David Wright‘s famous slide home in the Mets 2015 September sweep in D.C.