Series Preview: Mets End First Half in Chicago

The New York Mets are heading north to face the Chicago Cubs for a four-game series before heading to the All-Star break.

Buck Showalter’s team are coming into this series with a lot of confidence following a series victory over the Braves in Atlanta earlier this week. The Mets currently hold 2.5 game lead over the Braves, who are in D.C to face Washington Nationals this weekend. Jeff McNeil (paternity list) and Starling Marte (groin injury) could be in the lineup for the Mets as soon as tonight. The return of those two All-Stars would come as a major boost for the lineup as a whole.

The Cubs are trending in the other direction, as they are losers of their last six games. They currently own a 34-54 record on the season, good enough for fourth in the NL Central. This was the type of season the organization expected to have, as the club is moving more towards a rebuild for the future. The Cubs began the process by trading Javier Báez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant at the deadline last season. All-Star catcher Wilson Contreras will be the next to go, along with All-Star outfielder Ian Happ. The Cubs do have a lot of young talent showing signs of potential at the major league level, including infielder/outfielder Christopher Morel and shortstop Nico Hoerner. 

Thursday, July 14, 2022: RHP Carlos Carrasco (9-4, 4.55 ERA) vs. RHP Keegan Thompson (7-3, 3.04 ERA)

Carlos Carrasco has bounced back over his last two starts after struggling during June. The right-hander has pitched into the sixth inning in consecutive outings, giving up a total of three runs over that span. Carrasco was able to dance around trouble in his last start against the Miami Marlins on Saturday, only allowing two runs on seven hits while throwing 92 pitches. The home run ball has hurt the 35-year-old when things have not gone particularly well. Before his last start, Carrasco had given up at least one long ball in each of his last five outings.

Keegan Thompson was not expected to be a part of the rotation in 2022 but has been one of the more effective starters on the staff. The right-hander began the season as more of a long man in the bullpen but has transitioned well into becoming a starter. His last start was a good one, as he pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings while giving up just two hits and striking out eight. Thompson will throw a four-seam fastball, cutter, and curveball while mixing in an occasional changeup or sinker.

Friday, July 15, 2022: RHP Taijuan Walker (7-2, 2.63) vs. RHP Marcus Stroman (2-5, 4.91 ERA)

Walker is having another outstanding first half for the Mets. Following his start against the Philadelphia Phillies on May 5, the right-hander has lowered his ERA from 4.91 to 2.63 across 12 starts. Walker has given up three runs or less in each of his last six starts, which shows how well he is pitching right now. His last start against the Marlins on Sunday was one of his best this season, pitching seven scoreless innings while allowing just three hits and striking out seven.

Former Met Marcus Stroman will be facing his old team for the first time since leaving New York for Chicago in the offseason. The right-hander has had a really tough go of it in his first season with the Cubs. Injuries and the inability to pitch deep into games has troubled him in his first 10 appearances. The first-round draft pick has only pitched at least six innings in three of his starts. Stroman had made just one start since returning from the IL due to a shoulder injury that kept him out for over a month. The 30-year-old was limited to just four innings in that outing, giving up no runs on two hits while striking out three.

Saturday, July 16, 2022: RHP Max Scherzer (6-1, 2.15 ERA) vs. LHP Drew Smyly (2-5, 4.43 ERA)

Max Scherzer was excellent in his first two starts since returning from the IL due to an oblique injury. The right-hander carved through the Atlanta Braves lineup his last time out, pitching seven innings while giving up one run on three hits and striking out nine. The only mistake Scherzer made came in the seventh inning, as third baseman Austin Riley was able to get a hold of an inside changeup, putting it over the left field fence. The 37-year-old has great career numbers against the Cubs, holding a 5-2 record with a 2.81 ERA in 10 starts.

Drew Smyly is in his first season with the Cubs after spending last season with the Braves. This is the seventh team the left-handed starter has been on throughout his nine-year career in the majors. Smyly is set to make his second start since returning from the IL due to an oblique injury that force him to miss over a month. His last start did not go well, as he was only able to pitch two-plus innings while giving up four runs on five hits against the Los Angels Dodgers. Eduardo Escobar has great numbers against Smyly in a limited sample size, as the third baseman is 5-for-10 with three home runs against the left-hander.

Sunday, July 17, 2022: LHP David Peterson (5-2, 3.48 ERA) vs. RHP Adrian Sampson (0-1, 3.33 ERA)

Peterson has stepped up a big way at the backend of the rotation this season. Whenever he has been allowed to pitch, the left-hander has typically produced a quality start. Peterson is coming off a really good outing against the Braves on Tuesday when he pitched 5 1/3 innings while giving up two runs on just two hits and striking out nine. His only mistake came in the seventh inning when Matt Olson hit a two-run home run on an elevated fastball. The 26-year-old may have ended up on the short side that night, but it was a great performance against a deep lineup. Peterson has pitched well on the road this season, as he is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in eight appearances.

Sampson has been both a reliever and a starter throughout his five seasons in the big leagues. Four of his six appearances this season have come as a starter. Sampson has a five-pitch mix, and he goes to his four-seam fastball and sinker over 57 percent of the time. His last start came against the Baltimore Orioles at home, going. 5 1/3 innings and giving three runs on six hits while throwing 91 pitches. The longest outing for Sampson this season came on July 6 against the Milwaukee Brewers, when he pitched 5 2/3 innings in a 2-1 victory.

Prediction

With the potential that both McNeil and Marte could be back in the lineup as soon as tonight, the Mets should have a much deeper lineup for this series. The Cubs are not only struggling, but they are also missing some of their most talented players through injury. I would not be surprised if the Mets sweep the series, but I will go with the road team taking three of four this weekend.