The New York Mets finish their six-game road trip with three games against the Miami Marlins. It will be the second time this year the Mets will visit Marlins Park. On April 1-3, the Mets swept a three-game set against the Marlins and overall are undefeated against Miami so far in 2019 with a 5-0 mark. The Mets will visit South Florida once more this year for a weekend series July 12-14.
The Mets are coming off a disappointing series against their division foe, the Washington Nationals. After winning the first game of the series behind a strong performance by Noah Syngergaard, the Mets offense largely went to sleep as they lost the last two games to lose the series. The third game hurt more, literally, as two starters, Jeff McNeil and Michael Conforto, left with injuries. Conforto suffered a concussion and will not accompany the team to Miami but rather will fly to New York for further evaluation and will be placed on the seven-day concussion IL. The status of McNeil is uncertain but he said the tightness he felt in his abdomen was not severe and that he has had it in the past.
The Miami Marlins are currently in last place in the National League East with a 10-31 record, 13 games behind the first place Philadelphia Phillies. They are 1-9 in their last ten games, and have lost seven in a row. They are coming off a two-game intrastate series with the Tampa Bay Rays and were shut-out in both games. During their seven game losing streak, they have managed to score only eight runs.
Miami’s offensive woes have been a season long problem as they are last in the league in team offense. They have scored only 105 runs in their 41 games which averages to a paltry 2.6 runs per game. They have a team batting average of .218, with the highest average on the team belonging to Miguel Rojas who is hitting only .242. As a comparison, the Mets, who have their share of offensive problems themselves lately, are hitting nearly 30 points higher as a team with a .247 batting average.
As far as pitching, the Marlins rank 14th in the NL East with a .474 team ERA. Only the Colorado Rockies have a higher ERA (5.01) in the NL. Caleb Smith is the Marlins leader in wins with three and strikeouts with 64. His .92 WHIP and impressive 2.25 ERA also lead the team. Opponents are hitting .249 against Miami who have allowed 201 runs, which is interesting because the Mets have actually allowed nearly the same amount of runs with 202.
In team defense, Miami ranks ninth in the league having committed 24 errors. The Mets are finally out of the cellar in that category but are still a poor 14th in the NL with 33 errors, one less than the Chicago Cubs.
Friday, May 16: RHP Jacob deGrom vs RHP Trevor Richards 7:10 PM
2019 Stats: deGrom 3-4 record, 3.26 ERA (3.12 FIP), 1.106 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9; Richards 0-5 record, 4.46 ERA (5.20 FIP), 1.370 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 4.9 BB/9.
The Marlins starting pitcher for the first game of the series will be 26-year old Trevor Richards. The Illinois native is in his second year as a Marlin and will be making his ninth start of the year. His ‘out’ pitch is his change-up which he throws 35% of the time. The league is hitting just .200 against Richards’ off-speed change. He has recently added a cut fastball to his repertoire which he throws 13% of the time.
His last start was a loss to the Cubs at Wrigley Field. He went 5 innings allowing, four runs, seven hits with six strikeouts and two-walks. Overall this year, Richards has pitched 42.1 innings allowing 35 hits, 40 strikeouts and 23 walks to go along with his 4.46 ERA.
Richards, who will be making his ninth start of the year, has faced the Mets on four occasions including an April 3, 2019 loss to the Mets and Jacob deGrom, 6-4. Jeff McNeil is three for five lifetime against Richards and both Amed Rosario and deGrom have homered against the Miami right-hander.
Jacob deGrom will also be making his ninth start of the season. He last pitched on May 11, and earned the win in a 4-1 victory over the Marlins. He seems to have fully regained his Cy Young winning form form last year. In May, through 21 innings, he has a 1.29 ERA, striking out 21 and walking only four. Over that stretch, opponents are batting only .162 against Jake with a .469 OPS. De Grom’s 12.3 K/9 leads the National League.
Saturday, May 17: LHP Steven Matz vs RHP Pablo Lopez 4:10 PM
2019 Stats: Matz 3-2 record, 3.86 ERA (5.10 FIP), 1.200 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9; Lopez 2-5 record, 5.93 ERA (3.81 FIP), 1.293 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9.
The dust still may not have settled after Pablo Lopez’s last outing. The 23-year old had his worst start of his major league career on May 10 against the Mets where he allowed 10 runs (all earned) and 10 hits in just 3 innings in an 11-2 Mets romp.. Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil and Amed Rosario each homered off of Lopez in the game. Prior to that start, he had pitched fairly effectively not allowing more than four runs in any of his seven starts.
Overall this year, Lopez has thrown 41 innings allowing 42 hits, 42 strikeouts and 11 walks to accompany his 5.93 ERA.
Other than the offensive outburst on May 10, Lopez has only given up one extra base-hit to an active Met and that was in 2018, a home run by Todd Frazier.
Steven Matz will be making his eighth start of the year, his first since May 4 against the Milwaukee Brewers. He missed some time due to radial nerve discomfort in his left forearm a problem Matz has had off and on throughout his career.
On April 1, Matz had a no-decision against Miami in a game the Mets won 7-3. He pitched 5.1 effective innings allowing only one earned run. Steven has a 3-2 life time record against the Marlins.
Sunday, May 18: RHP Noah Syndergaard vs RHP Sandy Alcantara 1:10 PM
2019 Stats: Syndergaard 3-3 record, 4.74 ERA (3.61 FIP), 1.228 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9; Alcantara 1-4 record, 5.11 ERA (5.24 FIP), 1.636 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 4.7 BB/9
Sandy Alcantara will pitch the final game of the series for Miami. The 23-year old is in his third year in the majors, second with the Marlins. Alcantara faced the Mets on May 11 and was charged with the loss in a 4-1 Mets win. In that game he pitched 5.2 innings and allowed 4 runs, eight hits and two home runs, to Michael Conforto and Pete Alonso.
This year Alcantara has pitched 44 innings, allowing 49 hits, 28 strikeouts and 23 walks in eight starts. Wildness has been an issue for the young right-hander as his 4.7 BB/9 would suggest. Over his last three starts his ERA is 6.19.
McNeil, Conforto, deGrom and Frazier all have had multiple hits in their careers against Alcantara.
Noah Syndergaard has been the very definition of on again, off again, pitching well in one start and poorly the next particularly over the last month. In his last start in the series opener against the Nationals, Noah pitched eight innings and allowed two runs, four hits, with six strikeouts and only one walk. Syndergaard has never lost to the Marlins, owning a 6-0 lifetime record against them. This will be the first time he has faced Miami this year.
Prediction: The Marlins have, to put it nicely, been wretched especially as of late. There is no reason to think they will break their losing streak anytime soon. The Mets are not facing their best pitcher in Caleb Smith and have three of their best pitchers going and on paper, all signs point to a sweep. That said, the Mets will not go 19-0 against the Marlins this year, and after watching the last two games of the Washington series, some doubt creeps in. The Mets were inconsistent and unfocused through much of the last pair of games against the Nationals and with some uncertainty regarding McNeil and the absence of Conforto, the Mets could be ripe to get picked off a game here.
The pick here is that the Mets take two out of three from the Floundering Fish with high hopes that I hear a good dose of I told you so’s on Monday after a Mets sweep.
