Talk about going from the frying pan into the fire. The New York Mets, who just finished an emotionally charged and exciting series with the Washington Nationals, take their hot streak on the road to take on the Atlanta Braves. The Braves lead the National League East by 6.5 games over the Nationals and by 8 over the Mets.
The three-game series with the Braves will begin a six-game trip for the Mets which will culminate with a set in Kansas City.
The Mets (61-57) are coming off a 6-1 home stand, sweeping four from the Miami Marlins and taking two out of three from the Nationals. They have won 15 of their last 17 games and are 21-7 since the All-Star break which is the best second half mark in the Majors. The Mets are one game behind a Wild Card spot as they begin play on Tuesday.
New York as a team have risen steadily against the rest of the National League in both team batting and team fielding. Before the break, they languished near the bottom of the league, especially in pitching, but are currently ranked seventh in the NL in both categories. Even their team defense, which at times in the first half was rated dead-last, as improved somewhat to 11th.
Mets pitching, in fact, has been a strength in the second half with an ERA below 3.00. Only the almost equally hot Cleveland Indians can boast a sub-three ERA since the break. And as fate is a funny thing, the Indians will be visiting Citi Field August 20-22.
But first the Mets have to take care of business on the road, where they have largely struggled this year compiling a 27-36 record. First up, the Braves.
The Atlanta Braves are twenty games over .500 at 70-50. They are coming off a span where they played 13 of 17 games on the road. They were 10-7 (8-5 on the road) during that tough stretch. Since the break, they are 16-13. They begin a nine-game home stand with these three against the Mets followed by a compelling series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and finishing up with the Marlins.
The Braves are a young athletic team that has a dynamic offense which has scored 647 runs in 120 games, which averages to nearly 5.4 runs per game. That ranks them second in team offense in the NL. Only the Dodgers, with 648 runs scored, have tallied more runs than the Braves. Atlanta has a team batting average of .263 and an OPS just under .800. Their run differential is +62 which is fourth best in the NL.
First baseman Freddie Freeman, and left-fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. lead the Braves in most offensive categories. Freeman, who’s in his tenth year with Atlanta, leads the team (and the NL) with 95 RBIs. His .309 batting average also tops the team. Some pundits say that the perennial All-Star is having perhaps is best year.
Acuna, Jr. shows the way in runs scored with 99, home runs with 33 and stolen bases with 28. Acuna Jr. leads the league in stolen bases and runs scored and his fourth in home runs. His batting average is just under .300 at .298. Rookie of the Year in 2018, Acuna, Jr. is having an MVP caliber second season.
As far as pitching, the Braves rank ninth in the NL with a 4.41 team ERA. They have a .258 BAA. Max Fried, who will pitch the opening game of the Mets series, leads the team in wins with 13. Mike Soroka tops the team in WHIP (1.08) and ERA (2.32). Soroka’s ERA is second lowest in the league. The strikeout leader on the Braves is Julio Teheran with 126 and closer Luke Jackson has 18 saves.
In terms of team defense, the Braves rank fifth in the NL, having committed 60 errors. Their fielding percentage is .986.
Atlanta is managed by Brian Snitker. Snitker, 63, has been in the Braves organization in different roles since becoming a minor league player in 1977. He’s never been part of another organization. On May 17, 2016, Snitker was named Atlanta’s interim manager, replacing Fredi Gonzalez who was fired. He was named full-time manager on October 11, 2016. Snitker was named NL Manager of the Year in 2018.
Tuesday, August 13: RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Max Fried 7:20 PM
2109 Stats: Wheeler 9-6 record, 4.20 ERA (3.44 FIP), 1.220 WHIP, 9.6 Ks/9, 2.3 BB/9; Fried 13-4 record, 4.11 ERA (3.76 FIP), 1.371 WHIP, 9.1 Ks/9, 2.6 BB/9
Max Fried, 23, is in his third year as a Brave and is coming into his own. He has won four straight starts to improve his record to an impressive 13-4. His has a 3.32 ERA over the stretch. He owns a victory over the Mets this year, on June 19 at SunTrust Park. Fried allowed two runs over six innings in that outing. J.D. Davis is 4-6 against Fried, while Jeff McNeil is 3-6.
Last out, he went 5.1 innings allowing three runs on six hits versus the Minnesota Twins. Tuesday’s start will be his 25th of the year.
The Mets decided not to trade Zack Wheeler at the trade deadline and he’s responded by tossing 15 consecutive scoreless innings. He’s won his last three starts and has a season low 4.20 ERA.
Wheeler is 1-1 this year against the Braves and 6-4 lifetime with a 3.42 ERA.
Several Braves have has success against Zack. Brian McCann is 4-4, Freeman is hitting .444 with five RBIs and Josh Donaldson is 6-10 to name a few.
Wednesday, August 14: LHP Steven Matz vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel 7:20 PM
2019 Stats: Matz 7-7 record, 4.49 ERA (4.72 FIP), 1.396 WHIP, 8.5 Ks/9, 2.8 BB/9; Keuchel 3-5 record, 4.83 ERA (5.23 FIP), 1.358 WHIP, 6.9 Ks/9, 3.0BB/9
Dallas Keuchel has not been the pitcher the Braves they were hoping to get when he opted out of Houston to sign with Atlanta. His last start was his shortest as a Brave when he went only 3.2 innings allowing eight runs and ten hits against the Marlins. The poor outing raised his ERA almost a full run to 4.86, the highest it’s been since late June. The eight runs was the most he’s given up since 2017.
Only Wilson Ramos has faced Keuchel on the Mets current roster, going hitless in two at-bats.
Steven Matz has been inconsistent for the Mets, but he has produced quality starts in three of his last four outings. He’s done well against the Braves, owning a 5-1 lifetime record, 1-1 this year. He has a 3.61 ERA against Atlanta. His lone loss to the Braves was this year, on June 19.
Last out, Matz picked up his seventh win as he pitched 6.2 innings of two run, seven hit ball against the Marlins.
Johan Camargo, Freddie Freeman, and Josh Donaldson have each homered off of Matz.
Thursday, August 15: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Julio Teheran 7:20 PM
2019 Stats: Stroman 6-11 record, 3.20 ERA (3.60 FIP), 1.227 WHIP, 10.5 Ks/9, 4.4 BB/9; Teheran 7-7 record, 3.35 ERA (4.42 FIP), 1.277 WHIP, 8.3 Ks/9, 4.3 BB/9
Julio Teheran has had his fair share of trouble with the Mets this year. In three starts, he’s 1-1, but has allowed nine runs over 13.1 innings. He’s 10-8 lifetime against New York with a fine 2.68 ERA.
He’s done better against other teams this year as he has not given up more than three earned runs since June 24, a span of eight games.
Pete Alonso is 4-6 with a homer against Teheran. Jeff McNeil is hitting .385 with 2 RBIs and Wilson Ramos has collected four RBIs and a home run off of the hard throwing Braves’ hurler.
Marcus Stroman makes his third start for the Mets on Thursday. So far he has pitched to a 6.10 ERA for New York. He has shown grit in his two starts, and the Citi Field crowd gave him a warm ovation as he left the mound after 6+ innings against the Nationals on Friday. Stroman gets to face another tough NL East opponent in the Braves.
Several of the Braves have faced the former American League product. Adam Duvall is 2-3 against Stroman with one of the hits a home run. Ozzie Albies is also two for three lifetime against the newest Met pitcher, while Matt Joyce is 3-6.
Prediction: It would be nice to imagine the Braves looking past the Mets in this spot and plan instead for their weekend set against the Dodgers in a possible playoff match-up. The problem is the Mets are the hottest team in baseball and impossible to ignore at this juncture. The Mets and Braves have nine games to play against each other still in 2019 so they’ll get to know each other well. These three games will be the last at SunTrust Park with the remaining six at home including a set during the next home stand. The Mets are 4-6 against the Braves this year.
Tough call here. The Mets need the games more, but the Braves have always given the Mets fits especially in Atlanta. The Braves are returning home after spending much of the last three weeks on the road. The thought here is that with no deGrom or Syndergaard, the series tips in the Braves’ favor and they should take two of three from the Mets. It would come as no shock if the Mets grabbed two, but with six games remaining at Citi Field against the Braves, there will be another day for the Mets.
