Series Preview: Mets Begin Road Trip Against the Reds

After a disappointing series defeat over the weekend, the New York Mets (17-18) are headed to Great American Ball Park for a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds (14-20). The Mets are entering this series upon losing five out of their last six games to the Detroit Tigers and the Colorado Rockies, who are teams that they are generally expected to dominate. Similarly, the Reds have only won two out of their last six games against the Chicago White Sox and the San Diego Padres. With both teams coming into the series on a cold streak, the resilience of each club will be tested as they try to start their week off on the right note.

Despite the unsatisfactory results for the Mets, one bright spot has emerged during their previous games. Rookie catcher Francisco Álvarez has been swinging a hot bat as of late, with a batting line of .313/.389/.438 in his last seven games. In addition, he is in the 85th percentile for pitch framing, according to Baseball Savant. This combination of a potent offense and solid pitch framing should provoke Mets’ manager Buck Showalter to include his name in the lineup card more often going forward.

Tuesday, May 9, 2023: RHP Max Scherzer (2-2, 5.56 ERA) vs RHP Luke Weaver (0-2, 7.88 ERA)

After returning from his 10-game suspension, Max Scherzer struggled mightily in his previous start against the Tigers. In 3 1/3 innings pitched, Scherzer allowed six earned runs including two home runs while striking out three batters. Scherzer admitted to the New York Post that he’s not 100%. Consequently, the Mets are hoping for Scherzer to regain his dominant form on Tuesday, as he possesses a 1.67 ERA in his career against the Reds. In his most recent start against them in July of 2022, he pitched six shutout innings while tallying an impressive 11 strikeouts.

On the other side, Luke Weaver has also struggled to begin the season. In his most recent outing, he only pitched 4 1/3 innings while allowing four earned runs including nine hits and three strikeouts. This lackluster performance demonstrates a recent trend for Weaver, as he has allowed four or more runs in all three of his starts this season. Weaver has two starts against the Mets in his career, and they both came in his rookie campaign in 2018 when he was with the St. Louis Cardinals. Overall, he is 1-0 with an ERA of 4.66 in those two appearances.

Wednesday, May 10, 2023: RHP Justin Verlander (0-1, 3.60 ERA) vs RHP Hunter Greene (0-2, 3.74 ERA)

Justin Verlander made his highly anticipated debut against the Tigers last week, and he was solid in five innings as he struck out five batters while allowing two runs. Despite some first inning woes, Verlander was able to bounce back with four shutout innings against his former club. Consequently, the Mets are hoping that Verlander looks more like the pitcher that they saw in the last four frames as opposed to the first inning. In two starts against the Reds in his illustrious career, Verlander has a 4.15 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 13 innings.

While Hunter Greene has been excellent to begin his 2023 campaign, he struggled in his previous outing against the Chicago White Sox. In 5 2/3 innings pitched, he allowed five runs including two home runs while accumulating seven strikeouts. In a similar fashion, Greene pitched 5 1/3 innings in his only career start against the Mets in 2022 while allowing six earned runs. That said, the Mets would greatly benefit from a comparable performance from Greene on Wednesday.

Thursday, May 11, 2023: RHP Kodai Senga (4-1, 3.38 ERA) vs LHP Nick Lodolo (2-1, 6.29 ERA)

Despite being a newcomer to the MLB, Kodai Senga has been one of the few consistent performers for the Mets this season. This has been especially useful in the wake of injuries and other circumstances that have derailed the Mets’ starting rotation. Senga’s early success was evident in his last start, as he pitched six shutout innings while striking out four batters. However, he walked four batters, which has been a common theme for Senga to begin his Mets career. While the control issues did not ruin his performance against the Rockies, they could hurt his chances at success down the road. This will be his first start against the Reds.

Like a number of his teammates, Nick Lodolo has struggled to start the season. This did not change in his previous starts against the White Sox, as he only pitched 3 2/3 innings while allowing three earned runs including two home runs while striking out three batters. He also hit three batters, which could be an indication of control issues. Although 2023 has not been promising for Lodolo, his only career appearance against the Mets was characterized by dominance as he pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings while striking out eight batters.