Series Preview: Mets Begin Homestand Against Athletics

After being swept by the Mariners to conclude their long road trip, the New York Mets (61-57) return home to face the Oakland Athletics (50-69).

The Mets struggled mightily against the Mariners over the weekend, only scoring one run among three losing efforts. They sit one game behind the Braves for the final Wild Card spot after winning four of 10 games on their road trip.

This series against the Athletics kicks off a crucial nine-game homestand that can have major Wild Card race implications.

Let’s preview the pitching matchups for this series!

Tuesday, August 13, 2024: TBD vs. RHP Paul Blackburn (5-2, 3.86 ERA)

The Athletics have yet to name a starter for Tuesday, as they have shaken up their rotation with off days last Thursday and this past Monday. Ross Stripling is a possibility, as he has not pitched since last Tuesday. However, he has struggled mightily since returning from injury on July 25, with a 5.40 ERA in three starts.

Paul Blackburn will go up against his former team for the first time on Tuesday. In the two starts Blackburn has made with the Mets, he has noticeably increased his cutter usage. In this span, opponents are batting just .177 against the pitch, part of an overall trend of success for Blackburn.

Wednesday, August 14, 2024: RHP Mitch Spence (7-8, 4.33 ERA) vs. LHP David Peterson (6-1, 3.34 ERA)

Mitch Spence offers a five-pitch mix headlined by a cutter and slider. His speedier pitchers hover around 92 mph, and his curveball is his best pitch. It has a 31.9 percent whiff rate, and opponents are batting just .193 against it. Besides that, Spence does not profile as a strikeout pitcher and is often susceptible to allowing hard contact. His 41.9 percent hard-hit rate places him in the 24th percentile among qualified pitchers this season.

David Peterson has impressed this season despite gaps in his game. He struggles with walks, as he walks 10.6 percent of opponents. Peterson has walked three or more batters in four of his five last starts. However, he makes up for it with his elite 90th percentile 52.6 percent ground ball rate. He will have to work on his control issues if he wants to make an impact in the postseason.

Thursday, August 15, 2024: RHP Joey Estes (5-4, 4.70 ERA) vs. LHP Jose Quintana (6-8, 4.10 ERA)

Joey Estes throws his four-seamer over half the time with several secondary offerings. He only strikes out 18.3 percent of batters and has a 20th percentile 9.4 percent barrel rate. Further, Estes has the worst ground ball rate in the league at 23.5 percent. Despite these poor numbers, Estes has been better recently, allowing two or fewer earned runs in his last five starts.

Jose Quintana struggled in his last outing, allowing five earned runs over 6 2/3 innings. However, he has been effective since the beginning of July, posting a 3.19 ERA across seven starts. He has walked 9.8 percent of batters in that span, highlighting an issue that has plagued him this season.

Players to Watch

Jeff McNeil (NYM)

Jeff McNeil was one of the lone bright spots amid a poor offensive series for the Mets, going 3-for-10 with a home run against the Mariners. He is also batting .299/.346/.588 in his last 30 games, marking a major turnaround from his early season woes. The Mets will need more than just McNeil’s production if they want to make this homestand count.

Brent Rooker (OAK)

Brent Rooker had a solid series over the weekend, going 4-for-9 with a home run against the Blue Jays. This is part of a larger trend where Rooker is batting .336/.409/.718 with 12 home runs in his last 30 games. Rooker has established himself as one of the best hitters across the league this year, eclipsing the 90th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. The Mets may be wise to take a cautious approach against Rooker.