Update 9/26

On Tuesday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic speculated on his podcast “Fair Territory” that the bidding for Shohei Ohtani would ultimately come down to the Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers. Noting that he could not see Steve Cohen “simply passing” on bidding on Ohtani this offseason.  Rosenthal also included the Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, and Seattle Mariners as teams who may enter the mix for Ohtani, but he noted that he felt the bidding ultimately would come down to LA vs. New York for the likely 2023 AL MVP.

Update 9/18

Mets owner Steve Cohen is expected to make the biggest offer for Ohtani, John Harper of SNY reported on Monday. This is even with the caveats that Ohtani might not pitch in 2024 and that the Mets might not be going all-in as a team next season.

According to Harper, though,  a rival team executive said the Mets’ thinking on that might change if Ohtani says he’ll come to New York.

“I can’t even imagine what the payroll would be in that case, since they’re still paying off the (Max) Scherzer and (Justin) Verlander contracts, but Cohen is obviously willing to do whatever it takes,” the executive said, per Harper.

Cody Bellinger is another name in the conversation as the Mets look to improve their offense. With Ohtani as the main attraction and Bellinger as a worthy back-up option, a team executive believes the Mets will “slow-play it” next season if they miss out on both players. Regardless, a priority will be continuing the develop the team’s next young core. But with Cohen in the owner’s chair and new president of baseball operations David Stearns taking over, it’s too early to rule out a big splash like Ohtani or Bellinger.

Original Article

Los Angeles Angels two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani is set to enter free agency after the 2023 season wraps up. His impending free agency has drummed up many questions about what will motivate Ohtani’s decision, including factors such as geography and winning. In an article by Jim Bowden of The Athletic, the former GM talked with executives across the league to get the pulse on the Ohtani Market.

Before the news of Ohtani having a tear in his UCL, there had been reports circulating all season about how much he would fetch in the open market, with some venturing a number over $700 million. While talking with said MLB executives, Bowden relayed that the majority think he will get a contract (value-wise) in the same ballpark as Yankees’ slugger Aaron Judge, who received a $360 million deal this past offseason, with the possibility of escalators into the $500-600 million range. However, it was noted that when talking with executives from larger markets, that $500 million would be the floor even with injury concerns. The Japanese superstar brings in so much global appeal that he would bring great financial value to a franchise, and it still is worth taking a risk on him returning to his prior pitching status.

Photo by Roberto Carlo

While the number that Ohtani will demand in free agency will play a big part in where he lands, geography has been a big player in the forecasting of where the former MVP will go. When Shohei originally came to the MLB, there were reports that the Angels main leg up was Ohtani’s want to play for a West Coast team. Despite that, this time around, it seems as though winning is at the forefront of his mind, as an industry source tells Bowden, “Although he prefers the West Coast, the potential to win championships will be given more weight than geography.” While the article mentions that Ohtani may still prefer the West Coast, his want to win opens up the board for big-spending teams like the Mets, Yankees, and Cardinals.

Bowden wrapped up the article by ranking the ten most likely landing spots for the biggest free agent in MLB history, where he slotted the New York Mets at number four. Only trailing the Dodgers, Rangers, and Mariners, the former GM’s reasoning had a lot to do with Steve Cohen’s wallet. Billy Eppler, who originally brought Ohtani to Los Angeles, could also play a role in recruiting him to New York, as they have kept in contact since Eppler left the Angels.