Ranking Priority of Mets Free Agents

After an abrupt and anticlimactic end to their 2022 season, the New York Mets now face an important offseason in which many key contributors will reach free agency. Owner Steve Cohen’s pockets are deep, but it’s going to be a tough task for the team to keep up at their current pace without payroll going up rather significantly, which also makes things tougher on Billy Eppler and company as they make those roster decisions. As a result, we are going to look at each of the Mets upcoming free agents and the order in which a return for each player should be prioritized.

1): Jacob deGrom, SP

There was a debate for the next two players on this list to be at this spot, but at the end of the day it’s hard to justify anyone else but deGrom being the main priority for the front office assuming he goes forward with his plan of opting out. There has been plenty of chatter about him potentially being ready to move on from the spotlight in New York and going to another destination where he is more comfortable, however that’s all it is at this point in time: a rumor. It’s not going to stop the Mets from aggressively pursuing him, and it shouldn’t either.

DeGrom took a step back, at least on paper, from previous seasons after returning from injury in early August, finishing the season with a 3.08 ERA over 11 starts to go with 2.2 fWAR. However, his peripherals and advanced statistics all line up with where he has been in the past, plus his strikeout and walk rates are largely better than those of his recent campaigns. The only cause for concern in his numbers would be the drastic rise in HR/9 to 1.26, which was up from 0.59 in 2021.

Regardless, he remains the best starting pitcher in baseball by a healthy margin and would be the hardest player out of the upcoming free agent class for the Mets to replace. The injury concerns are real and are certainly a factor that will have to be taken into consideration in contract talks, but that shouldn’t deter the team from making a serious run at retaining one of the best players in franchise history.

2): Edwin Díaz, Closer

It should be a no-brainer for the Mets to retain Díaz. Aside from all the fanfare that comes with having him, he’s just simply the epitome of an elite, lockdown closer. He closed out the season with 32 saves and a 1.31 ERA over 61 games along with an absurd 17.13 K/9, 0.90 FIP and 3.0 fWAR, all of which led the league among qualified relievers.

There appears to be a general sentiment across the league that you shouldn’t shell out big money to relievers and that it is easier to replenish bullpen arms than any other position, but Díaz is an exception. The Mets won’t find anyone quite like him elsewhere and should do everything in their power to retain him, even if it means giving him a record-setting deal.

3): Brandon Nimmo, CF

Nimmo is coming off of his best full season as a major leaguer and thus has set himself up for a nice payday. Over 155 games, he slashed .274/.367/.433 and finished the year with a 134 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR. He recorded six Outs Above Average as well, which continued his ascent into becoming an above-average defender at one of the most important positions on the field.

With the center fielder market being rather barren this offseason, there’s no doubt Nimmo will have his fair share of suitors. With a lack of outfield talent in the upper minors, the Mets should do what it takes to bring him back into the fold for 2023 and beyond.

4): Chris Bassitt, SP

The narrative on Bassitt has shifted over the past couple of weeks compared to where it was beforehand due to two mediocre starts in crucial situations against the Braves and Padres. The reality though is that he was a consistent starter and has a long track record of success. He pitched to a 3.42 ERA and 2.7 fWAR over 30 starts this year while also averaging about six innings per outing, showing just how efficient he was. The Mets and Bassitt have a mutual 2023 option for $19 million that Chris is likely to decline for a longer deal.

Every team could use a pitcher like Bassitt, so naturally he will have a robust market, but he’s continually shown his talent across his career and proved he could pitch in New York. The rotation for next year currently has a lot of question marks, and re-signing Bassitt would go a long way in providing stability and production.

5): Adam Ottavino, RP

The bullpen has a chance to look completely different next season with many of the key arms from this season reaching free agency. There a lot of different ways the Mets can choose to restructure that part of the roster, but Ottavino should be a top target no matter what route they choose. Primarily pitching from the set-up role, he put up a 2.06 ERA and 1.1 fWAR over 66 appearances. A big part of his success was cutting his BB/9 rate down to 2.19 after it had been above 4.00 every season since 2017. Overall, his experience and success as a late-inning reliever is invaluable and should make him a priority to bring back this winter.

6): Seth Lugo, RP

A long-time stalwart as a starter and reliever for the Mets, the notion of Lugo no longer being a part of the team feels strange. He’s regressed from his borderline elite level of play in 2018 and 2019, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t still useful. He pitched to a 3.60 ERA and 0.2 fWAR over 62 games this season while pitching in some crucial spots and has a good body of work over his career as a whole. It remains to be seen if Lugo tests his ability as a starter once again somewhere else, but the comfort levels between both parties could lead to a potential reunion.

7): Taijuan Walker, SP

It was once again a tale of two halves for Walker in 2022. After earning an All-Star nod in 2021 due to a strong first half, the workload became too much in the second half and his season unraveled quickly. This year, Walker finished the first half with a 2.55 ERA and the second with a 4.80 ERA, which raises obvious questions about his consistency and long-term durability. He did finish the year with a 2.5 fWAR and 3.49 ERA overall and can be a solid back-end rotation arm, but the Mets should proceed with caution here.

Walker has a $7.5 million player option that comes with a $3 million buyout, so he will certainly decline and become a free agent.

8): Trevor Williams, SP/RP

Williams turned in a great season under unique circumstances, used as a long reliever in mop-up duty or as an in-game injury replacement while also starting games due to other injuries in the rotation. He appeared in 30 games, nine as a starter, and threw 89 2/3 innings while finishing with a 3.21 ERA and 0.6 fWAR along with good peripherals. The Mets should have interest in bringing him back in some capacity, but there’s a chance another team can offer him a guaranteed rotation spot or more substantial role in general.

9): Trevor May, RP

May had a good 2021 after signing a lucrative two-year deal the offseason prior, but he never got going this season due to injury and struggled to produce results when he was on the field. There is a chance he regains form next year due to his solid peripherals, but it’s hard to see that coming with the Mets.

10): Mychal Givens, RP

While his tenure in New York got off to a rocky start, Givens settled in nicely as the season winded on and he had some nice outings during the playoff push.  He has carved out a nice career as a solid middle reliever and would be a useful part of next year’s bullpen if the Mets decide to bring him back. Givens and the Mets have a $3.5 million mutual option for 2023 that has a $1.5 buyout, meaning Mychal is very likely to decline the option.

11): Joely Rodríguez, RP

Things didn’t go perfectly for Joely after a trade from the Yankees, as evidenced by his 4.47 ERA, but the underlying numbers show that he was a bit unlucky. He was very effective against lefties and could provide value to the Mets next year as a result, but likely won’t be a priority for the front office.

12): Tommy Hunter, RP

Hunter produced a 2.42 ERA in 18 appearances this season, but his peripherals tell a different story about the kind of year he had. His best days are likely behind him, and while he seems to be a good clubhouse guy, it’s probably for the best if the Mets move on and pursue different options this offseason.

13): Tyler Naquin, OF

After arriving from Cincinnati at the trade deadline, Naquin burst on the scene and was a major contributor in his early days as a Met. Unfortunately, he ultimately came back to Earth and would end up slashing .203/.246/.390 in New York, culminating in him being left off the Wild Card Series roster. It’s hard to see either side pushing for another go here with there being better options for both sides.

Right-handed starter Carlos Carrasco has a $14 million club option with a $3 million buyout for the 2023 season. Given the uncertainty surrounding the Mets rotation for the 2023 season, the Mets could decide to pick up the option to guarantee they have a roster spot covered.

The Mets also have cheap options on Daniel Vogelbach ($1.5 million) and John Curtiss ($775K) that are very likely to get picked up.

Reminder that the qualifying offer is still in play for this offseason and we’re likely to see the Mets give it to multiple players on this list.

The Mets front office has a daunting task ahead in trying to reconstruct the roster with so many players reaching free agency, and it remains to be seen how many of those said players are brought back as they look to take that next step next season.