Positional Breakdown: Mets vs Padres

Friday marks the opening of the Wild Card Series between the San Diego Padres and New York Mets. As we draw closer to first pitch, let’s take a look at each position group and how they will look as well as how they measure up against one another.

Manager

A major factor in both teams being where they are today is because of their manager. Both Bob Melvin and Buck Showalter have led several different franchises to the postseason across their careers and are among the most experienced and successful skippers across the league.

Melvin was plucked away from the rebuilding Oakland Athletics, with whom he was with from 2011 to 2021, in November of 2021. During that period, he led the club to six playoff berths and three AL West titles. However, he never was able to get over the hump, advancing only once while failing to ever get past the Division Series. Still, he earned two Manager of the Year awards and accumulated 853 wins with the franchise, ranking second all-time behind Connie Mack.

Before his tenure in Oakland, Melvin began his managerial career with the Seattle Mariners in 2003 and eventually jumped to the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2005, replacing Wally Backman. He earned his first Manager of the Year award in 2007 after the D-Backs won the NL West with a 90-win season that was cut short in the NLCS by the rival Colorado Rockies.

Showalter has also had his fair share of postseason woes, never reaching a World Series across parts of 21 seasons as a manager. Like Melvin, Showalter has earned three Manager of the Year awards. He recorded his second 100-win season in 2022, with his first coming with the 1999 D-Backs.

Showalter and Melvin both rank inside the top 30 in all-time managerial wins at No. 19 and No. 27 respectively, and it should be fun to see these two operate in this type of setting.

Advantage: Even

Catcher

Let’s start with the Padres here. Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro took on the catching duties for a vast majority of the season, and the results weren’t exactly great. The two combined for 0.7 fWAR on the season, with Nola slashing .251/.321/.329 to go with an 89 wRC+ while Alfaro put up a 90 wRC+ and a slash line of .246/.285/.383.

The defensive metrics weren’t kind either, with the unit as a whole putting up -11 Defensive Runs Saved and the lowest caught-stealing percentage in the league. In addition, neither Alfaro nor Nola ranked above the 35th percentile in framing according to Baseball Savant.

As for the Mets, the offense was especially hard to come by at catcher. The position group finished the season with a collective wRC+ of 66, with starters Tomás Nido and James McCann putting up slash lines of .239/.276/.324 and .195/.257/.282 respectively. However, the narrative changes when looking at their defensive production.

Nido was among the elite defensive players at the position across MLB, finishing in the 93rd percentile for framing according to Baseball Savant, while also putting up eight Defensive Runs Saved. McCann was very solid as well, putting up two DRS while finishing in the 59th percentile in framing.

It’s fair to not expect offensive fireworks on either side from the catcher position, especially considering top prospect Francisco Álvarez likely won’t be getting any reps behind the plate. However, the Mets have a stark advantage defensively and could make their mark during the series.

Advantage: Padres

Infield

San Diego’s infield is one of the best all-around units across MLB and is headlined by MVP candidate third baseman Manny Machado. Machado hit .298/.366/.531 to go with a 152 wRC+ and 32 home runs all while putting up a 7.4 fWAR, good for third in the league. Joining him on the left side is shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, who has been the full-time starter all year and with Fernando Tatis Jr. out for the entire season due to injury and suspension. Kim has filled in nicely to the tune of a 3.7 fWAR and slash line of .251/.325/.383, all while playing elite defense. All-Star Jake Cronenworth has been a mainstay at second base for three seasons now and put up a line of .240/.333/.394 along with a 4.2 fWAR, which was helped by his superb baserunning and above-average glove.

First base has been the only real question mark on the infield all year for the Padres, with Josh Bell struggling as the replacement for Eric Hosmer at the trade deadline. Bell hit .192/.316/.271 following his move to San Diego, but the Padres also acquired Brandon Drury to get time at the position. Drury has also played limited time at second and third base for the Padres while hitting .238/.290/.435 in the brown and gold.

For the Mets, everything starts with Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso. Both players recorded over 100 RBI and were stalwarts throughout the season, with Alonso appearing in 160 games and Lindor in 161. Alonso was also one of three players in the majors to hit 40 home runs and did so with a line of .271/.352/.518. As for Lindor, he bounced back from a down 2021 campaign offensively and recorded a 127 wRC+ all while keeping up his Gold Glove level of play in the field.

Eduardo Escobar recovered from a rough start to his Mets career by earning Player of the Month honors in September and finished his season with a 2.3 fWAR and a 106 wRC+. Jeff McNeil should get a majority of the playing time at second base this series over Luis Guillorme with the return of Starling Marte taking away the need for him to play in the outfield. McNeil, coming off of a batting title, can do a little bit of everything and is one of the most important pieces on the roster.

Advantage: Even

Outfield

On the surface, San Diego’s outfield was below-average offensively this season, finishing with a collaborative wRC+ of 96 and a slash line of .228/.312/.360. However, the equation changes when you consider the fact that Juan Soto arrived in August and only played two months with the team, all while in an elongated slump for most of his tenure up to this point. He is one of the most advanced and lethal hitters the game has to offer and will be a headache to the Mets staff all weekend long.

Joining him in center field is Trent Grisham, one of the best defenders in the league regardless of position. He ranked in the 98th percentile in Outs Above Average and is a fantastic base runner as well, but has had some trouble finding consistency at the plate.

Left fielder Jurickson Profar has had a career year as the leadoff hitter, putting up a 2.5 fWAR and 110 wRC+ along with a .722 OPS. Wil Myers could see some action in the corners at some point too, as he has helped himself out with a potent second-half OPS of .830 and wRC+ of 137 following a dismal first half.

Marte returning is huge news for the Mets, as he hit .292/.347/.468 on the year and put up 3.0 fWAR. Mark Canha and Brandon Nimmo will be starters as well. The defense could get a little spotty in the corners as it has all year, but otherwise, New York should have no concerns about the offensive firepower and output from this group, as they put up the highest combined wRC+ and wOBA of any outfield in the league.

Advantage: Mets

Designated Hitter

With Bell receiving a majority of his recent at-bats as the designated hitter, he is the leading candidate to remain in that role and start during the series. While his Padres numbers have been disappointing, he still ended the year with a slash line of .266/.362/.422 and a wRC+ of 123, so he isn’t someone to overlook. Drury could see some time as the DH too, but he has recently taken a majority of the work at first in favor of Bell.

Daniel Vogelbach has been the Mets’ designated hitter against righties since the day he was traded over, and there’s no reason for that to change in the playoffs. He finished the reason with an OPS of .879 and wRC+ of 150 against them and provides a dependable middle-of-the-order presence for New York. As for how who starts against lefties, Darin Ruf and Álvarez are the leading candidates. Ruf has had well-documented struggles as a Met, but his track record against southpaws is too good to simply ignore. Álvarez only has 14 plate appearances in his young career thus far, but he’s not on the roster to not play and very well could see the bulk of playing time in favor of Ruf if his struggles continue.

Advantage: Mets

Starting Pitchers

Yu Darvish and Blake Snell have been announced as the Padres starters for Games 1 and 2 respectively, with Joe Musgrove the obvious leading candidate to start a potential Game 3. Darvish has had a spectacular season, throwing 194 ⅔ innings over 30 starts for an ERA of 3.10. His strikeout numbers are down rather significantly from his career average, but his control is impeccable and he’s as effective as ever.

Snell has rebounded impressively from a disappointing 2021 season with an ERA of 3.38 and just over 12 strikeouts per nine innings. His control remains a concern, but his peripherals have been among the best of his career, and he has shown the ability to step up his game in the postseason in years past.

As for Musgrove, he has had his fair share of struggles against the Mets but remains a dangerous opponent. He ended 2022 with a sub-3 ERA along with above-average marks in essentially every category imaginable for a pitcher.

On the Mets’ side, Jacob deGrom is the key. Nothing appears to be completely set in stone just yet, but we will likely only see deGrom if the series comes down to an elimination game in either Game 2 or 3 for New York. The fact that he is coming off of a string of disappointing appearances shouldn’t discourage Mets fans or take anything away from deGrom either. He is still the best pitcher in baseball and is absolutely the guy you want on the mound in a crucial moment.

Max Scherzer will be starting Game 1 on Friday night, which will be his 22nd career start in the playoffs. His first season with the Mets went about as well as expected when healthy, as evidenced by his 2.29 ERA and underlying numbers.

Another Mets starter whose first year went as well as initially hoped for is Chris Bassitt, who will be pitching Game 2 in the event of a Mets win and Game 3 if they were to lose Game 1 and then win Game 2. This would be Bassitt’s third playoff start and appearance.

Advantage: Mets

Relievers

The Padres boast a deep bullpen that features the likes of Luis Garcia, Tim Hill, Robert Suarez, Nick Martinez, Steven Wilson, and Josh Hader among others. Sean Manaea, despite a down year as a starter, could factor in as well, which would add a whole other element as well. San Diego finished 14th on the year in terms of bullpen ERA and sixth in bullpen fWAR. Important to note that Hader has been back to his dominant self in September/October with a 0.87 ERA and allowed only one extra-base hit in 11 appearances. The Padres bullpen will feature four lefties.

As for the Mets, it all comes down to Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, and Seth Lugo. That trio has been the backend of the bullpen for almost the entire year, and if the starters can get them through six or seven innings, then New York has to feel pretty good about their chances. That’s far from a certainty though, and there are some concerns about the depth of the bullpen as compared to potential playoff opponents, especially the Padres.

Advantage: Mets

The Wild Card Series between the Mets and Padres is shaping up to be quite the battle as the two teams fight for the right to move on to the Division Series. Anything can happen despite who may or may not have an advantage on paper, and that’s the beauty of baseball.