Dissecting José Peroza’s Promising Start

José Peroza is a name that any Mets fan may if they are familiar with the minor league system. Peroza has been in the Mets system since 2017 and was named Eastern League Player of the Week last week, which included a three home run performance. He has a .924 OPS to start the season in Double-A after beginning the season on the injured list and was ranked as the preseason best defensive infielder in the Mets system per Baseball America. He has been on the top 30 prospect lists throughout his career and has always been a streaky player, but to be a mainstay in the Mets lineup he will need to find consistency and success against both lefties and righties.

Let’s take a deeper dive into Peroza’s profile.

Short-Term Goal: Get Into Better Counts vs. RHP

He has had above average wRC+ numbers for each of his last three seasons in the minor leagues, which also included a 91st percentile swing rate on the first pitch. His walk rates were around average with high strikeout rates, and he is average at how hard he hits the ball and how frequently he hits it hard.

His swing rates and swing rates in the zone in general are also above the 90th percentile, indicating a trigger happy approach. Generally, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing so long as his strikeout-to-walk percentage isn’t too high. His results against right-handed pitchers, however, are poor, and this aggressive approach may be one of the reasons why. If he can improve his walk number and reduce strikeout numbers against righties, he will be much easier to palate as a future weapon in. Another important point about getting into better counts is that he will be able to take more aggressive swings and sit on pitches in those leverage counts as opposed to mis-hitting first pitch strikes.

Long-Term Goals: Improve Platoon Splits

Continuing on from his approach against RHPs, he needs to improve overall results. His success against lefties is impressive as he had a 96th percentile rate of exit velocities over 95 mph vs. southpaws. His rate of balls batted at over 95 mph at greater than a 12 degree angle (remember: you don’t want to be hitting the ball hard on the ground) was in the 93rd percentile in 2022, showing that he also had plenty of slugging potential against lefties.

His results against RHP are on the other side of the coin at 20th and 22nd percentiles, respectively. So far this year, his results have drastically improved against RHPs. Where he still falls short is his strikeout percentage against RHPs, which currently sits at 35%. His high chase and miss rates to start the season despite great batted ball results indicate a lack of two strike approach, so adjusting his swing to put the ball in play could be a solution there. His swings against righties to start the season are clearly improved. However, he should take less swings early in counts and look to reduce two strike misses. He is definitely on the right track in swing development and the next adjustment is likely more approach driven.

Summary

Peroza’s defense is impressive, especially on the difficult plays. He’s above average at making plays with 0%, 1-10%, 20-40%, and 60-90% chances of being made. He can still improve at the routine play, but that likely has to do with his below average range. That is likely an easier skill to continue developing than his talent.

He also has talent in regards to his swing, hitting balls hard at a high rate, and if he can reduce his strikeout percentage, then he seems to be on a great path to hitting well against both RHP and LHPs going forward. Improving his walk rate before getting to the show will really help his chances of staying there, but his start to the 2023 season has made him a relevant prospect and one to keep an eye on for trades this summer as the Mets have loaded infield depth at or near MLB readiness.