Following a disappointing 74-win season in 2023 and an offseason that left some fans hoping for more, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA standings projected the Mets to finish in third place in the NL East with 83-84 wins.
PECTOA gave the Mets a 3% chance of winning the division for the first time since 2015 and a 49% chance at returning to the playoffs. They have a 2.3% chance of reaching the World Series.
The projections have the Braves taking the East with 100 wins, the Phillies in second at 84, followed by the Mets and then Miami (80 wins). Washington (57 wins) has the lowest projection in the majors.
PECOTA has the Dodgers—with Shohei Ohtani—leading the NL in wins with 101 and a 99.8 percent chance at making the playoffs for the 12th consecutive year. It has the Cardinals winning the Central with 85 wins.
The Astros (95 wins), Yankees (94) and Twins (88) were also pegged to win their divisions in the American League. Oakland had the lowest American League projection at 64 wins.
PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. It is a formula that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the season. The projections get extremely granular with its assignment of at-bats and innings, but is also cautious. For instance, it projects Mark Vientos to get 35% of DH plate appearances, 20% of first base PAs, and 5% of third base PAs. It also says Francisco Lindor will get 90% of shortstop PAs, though that number has been closer to 100% each of the last two seasons.
You can view those full projections here.
