On Thursday morning, Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections for the 2019 season. Yesterday, I broke down their projections for the National League East. Here is how they have things shaping out (prior to the J.T. Realmuto trade):
- New York Mets 89-73
- Washington Nationals 89-73
- Atlanta Braves 84-79
- Philadelphia Phillies 84-79
- Miami Marlins 66-96
After a busy offseason, they have the Mets finishing the season with a 89-73 record, which is tied with the Washington Nationals atop the National League East. Last season, they projected the Mets to finish with an even 81-81 record.
Now let’s take a look at the PECOTA player projections:
Despite being 36-years old, they are very high on newly-acquired second baseman Robinson Cano. He is projected to slash .276/.343/.438 with 18 home runs and 73 RBI, while being a 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP).
They also are projecting big years from the Mets young stars. Michael Conforto is projected to post a .806 OPS with 25 home runs, Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 18 home runs and lead the team as a 3.6 WARP, and Jeff McNeil is projected to lead the team with a .435 on-base percentage.
As for rookie first baseman Peter Alonso, he is projected to hit .218/.309/.453 with 18 home runs and be a 1.2 WARP over 351 plate appearances.
On the other side of the ball, the Mets are projected to allow just 630 runs on the season, which is the third lowest total in baseball.
And as you can see above, all five members of the Mets rotation are projected to make at least 25 starts, and finish with a WHIP that is 1.25 or lower.
Jacob deGrom is projected to follow up his Cy Young season by winning fourteen games and posting a 2.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 221 strikeouts to make him a 3.9 WARP over 31 starts. He and Noah Syndergaard are projected to lead the Mets rotation, and account for a combined 7.1 WARP.
BA is also very high on Steven Matz this season, as they project him to win nine games, and post career lows with a 3.44 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while contributing as a 1.8 WARP.
In the much-improved Mets bullpen, Edwin Diaz is projected to lead the way with 38 saves, 93 punch outs, a 1.81 ERA, and a 0.96 WHIP. Jeurys Familia, Robert Gsellman, and Justin Wilson are projected to form a nice bridge to Diaz. And long man Seth Lugo is projected to throw 90 innings, starting six games, and posting a 3.67 ERA.
These projections can certainly be wrong, but there is no denying this season is looking bright for the New York Mets. What are your thoughts on the 2019 PECOTA player projections, and which players do you think will come up big for the 2019 New York Mets?
