According to Evan Drellich of The Athletic, Major League Baseball and The Major League Baseball Players’ Association will meet Thursday for their fifth negotiating session since the lockout began on December 2.

In this meeting, the players are expected to make a counter-offer to the proposal the owners put forth on Saturday. While the meeting can be seen as a positive, the five day gap between meetings is highly curious, given the calendar. Pitchers and catchers were supposed to be in camps already, and the common thinking is that a deal is needed somewhere between February 21 and February 24 to allow for a full month of spring training and no missed regular season games.

In previous meetings between the two sides, we have often heard that one was “disappointed” or “underwhelmed” by the other side’s proposal. Each offer has tended to inch closer to compromising on key points, but progress has generally been minimal, and we are very close to having a shortened regular season.

In summary, the good news is that the players and owners have agreed on the universal DH, and agreed in principle on a draft lottery, a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, expanded playoffs (the exact number is still in debate), and some ways to avoid service-time manipulation.

The not-so-good news is that they have not agreed on the amount of money that will be in the bonus pool, the minimum salary, the number of teams in the draft lottery, and the specifics of how service time will no longer be manipulated. These issues should be able to be resolved fairly quickly, or at least more quickly than the biggest gap, the Competitive Balance Tax.

According to Bob Nightingale of The USA Today, here is the latest on the CBT after Saturday’s negotiations:

Major League Baseball slightly enhanced their proposals on several economic issues Saturday. MLB increased their luxury tax by $2 million, starting at $214 million for the first two years, $216 million in 2024, $218 million in 2025 and $222 million in 2026. They also lowered the penalties for exceeding the luxury tax. Teams will no longer lose draft picks unless their payroll exceeds $234 million, a figure that only four teams have ever eclipsed.

This one may take time to resolve, and time is something that MLB and the MLBPA do not have if they want to play a full season, or at least one as currently planned. The owners moved a little on the CBT in their last proposal, lowering the tax threshold slightly, and the tax levels from their previous proposal. The currently proposed tax levels are still higher than they have been in prior Collective Bargaining Agreements.

We will see what tomorrow brings. It’s possible, and probably likely, that the players’ offer follows the same pattern as the other offers have from both sides. There may be slight movement, that the owners will characterize as inadequate, and the session will end after an hour or so. The big question is what happens next.

If MLB and the MLBPA don’t want to miss regular season games, they can’t wait another five days to get together again. They can’t really afford to wait more than a day, as it will probably take several more sessions to arrive at an agreement. We all know that the clock is ticking, and seemingly more quickly now.

Generously, the players and owners have a week to come to a deal to have a full season. As Commissioner Rob Manfred said, missing games would be “disastrous” for the industry. The only people who can prevent that from happening will be meeting in New York Thursday.