Outlook On Mets and MLB Non-Tender Candidates

The non-tender deadline is today at 8:00 p.m. ET, meaning that teams have to make a decision on whether or not to give a contract to eligible players for the 2023 season. We often see a host of different players that get non-tendered go on to have a substantial role on their new teams, such as reliever Jason Adam last season and Kyle Schwarber in 2021. With that, we’re going to take a look at how the deadline impacts the Mets as well as what notable names around the league are in jeopardy as a result.

The Mets have seven arbitration-eligible players, all of whom will be listed along with their projected salaries by MLB Trade Rumors for the 2023 season:

Tomás Nido, C: $1.6 MM
Dominic Smith, 1B/OF: $4 MM
Jeff McNeil, 2B: $6.2 MM
Joey Lucchesi, SP: $1.15 MM
Drew Smith, RP: $1.2 MM
Pete Alonso, 1B: $15.9 MM
Luis Guillorme, UTL INF: $1.5 MM

From that group, only Dom Smith would appear to be at risk of being non-tendered. His $4 million-dollar projected salary is likely too hefty for New York considering the fact that there’s no real path toward playing time in any capacity as things currently stand. He slashed .194/.276/.284 with 0 home runs over 152 plate appearances in 2022 after a disastrous campaign in 2021 where he slashed .244/.304/.363 while putting up -1.0 fWAR and -11 Outs Above Average in 145 games.

It’s all in all a sad reality for both parties, as Smith seemed to have finally had things clicking on all cylinders during the shortened 2020 season in which he received MVP votes and slashed .316/.377/.616. He should have suitors once he hits the open market due to his pedigree and prior success at the plate as well as his recent defensive turn-around at first base.

As for elsewhere in the league, rumors have been swirling about some of the more prominent names that are likely to be non-tendered. Let’s see who is likely to hit the open market and how they profile as free agents.

Cody Bellinger, CF, Dodgers

Cody Bellinger is one of the more high-profile non-tender candidates in recent memory. Once the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year and 2019 NL MVP, Bellinger also notched two All-Star appearances and a Gold Glove award over his first three seasons while slashing .278/.369/.559 with 111 homers during that time frame. Since 2021 though, he has dealt with a slew of injuries and subsequent changes to his swing that have left him as a shell of his former self at the plate. He’s slashed just .193/.256/.355 to go with 0.7 fWAR over the past two seasons with his batted ball data and both his strikeout and walk rates trending in the wrong direction.

As for the positives, Bellinger remains an incredible baserunner and defender. He recorded 7 Outs Above Average in 2022 and was a Gold Glove nominee for the third time in his career while also swiping 14 bags. It all comes down to whether or not he can regain form at the plate and return to being a five-tool player, and it’s the $18.1 million-dollar question for the Dodgers. They could opt to tender him a deal and then keep him on the roster or trade him, which could get tough considering how much money he would be owed. The far more likely scenario is that he gets non-tendered and reaches free agency, where he could be in line for a nice pay-day as teams convince themselves that they can help turn things around for him.

Brian Anderson, 3B/OF, Marlins

Brian Anderson has long been a staple and consistent producer for a Marlins roster that has undergone quite a bit of change during his tenure there. The high point of his career up to this point was his two-season stretch from 2018 to 2019 where he slashed .268/.350/.430 with 5.6 fWAR, 31 home runs and a top-five finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting. Recently though, he has taken frequent trips to the Injured List and did not appear in 100 games in either 2021 or 2022. His offense has also faltered during that time, slashing .233/.322/.359.

Anderson’s strong suit is his arm, which ranked in the 99th percentile according to Baseball Savant and has resulted in many defensive highlights. It has also been the genesis of his playing time in the corner outfield spots over his career, where he hasn’t fared well as shown by his combined -3 Outs Above Average last season in left and right. He remains a good defender at the hot corner though, and if the Marlins decide that his projected $5.2 million price tag is too much, that combined with his ability to punish lefties could make him an enticing add in free agency.

Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Tigers

Jeimer Candelario was sneakily one of the league’s best third basemen in both 2020 and 2021 when he combined to slash for .278/.356/.458 while putting up 5.8 fWAR and playing good defense with 3 OAA. That was all forgotten about though with a dreadful 2022 campaign that saw him slash .217/.272/.361 with an 80 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR as well as -6 OAA. His advanced stats and batted ball data took significant steps back as well, and while his prior body of work would suggest that 2022 was an anomaly of sorts, his $7 million projection may be a bit too pricy for Detroit.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS, Yankees

After arriving in a blockbuster deal from the Twins this offseason, Isiah Kiner-Falefa was slotted in as the Yankees’ starting shortstop and instantly became a polarizing figure. He slashed .261/.314/.327 with an 85 wRC+ and 1.3 fWAR while his defense is what surprisingly drew the ire of many fans. He made 16 errors and put up -4 OAA, which was a disappointment after being acquired for his prowess in the field. He did, however, record 10 Defensive Runs Saved and continued to build on his reputation as an elite bat-to-ball skills player with an 89.8 Contact%, 13.6 K% and 11.2 Whiff%. Kiner-Falefa is a tough player to figure out, but there’s no denying that his versatility and presumed defensive ability are valued and will bring interest if the Yankees opt to non-tender him at his $6.5 million projection.

Alex Reyes, RP, Cardinals

Alex Reyes burst on the scene in the first half of 2021 after dealing with numerous significant injuries that derailed his promising career up to that point, putting up a 1.52 ERA over 41.1 innings on his way to an All-Star nod. From there, he struggled mightily in the second half with a 5.52 ERA and would ultimately finish the year with a 3.24 ERA and 0.2 fWAR along with 29 saves.

Reyes’s stuff is among the best in the game, as he struck out 11.82 batters per nine in 2021 while allowing very little quality contact and having a slider that was one of the best pitches in the game. His downfall is his ability to beat himself, as his walk rate sits at 15.5% for his career, and he also can’t stay healthy, as he did not appear in a single game in 2022 due to labrum damage in his right shoulder that required surgery.

He is projected to earn $2.85 million in arbitration this year, and should the Cardinals non-tender him, his high-end potential should garner plenty of opportunities and interest despite concerns about his durability.