Opinion: Time Running Out to Extend Francisco Lindor

With less than two weeks until Opening Day, the window to extend upcoming free agents will be coming to an end very shortly and that could certainly make things very challenging for the New York Mets, who are currently attempting to extend multiple players before the 2021 campaign begins.

In total, the front office has been tasked with locating new deals for Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman this spring. But with the regular season just around the corner, all four of these players are still slated to hit free agency next winter and there hasn’t been significant progress with any of them so far, which is obviously less than ideal.

Though there’s still time for management to resolve this concerning issue, the clock is ticking for them to extend at least one of the names listed above and they definitely don’t have any time to waste. Considering this team wants to become a sustainable playoff contender over the next several seasons, re-signing Lindor before he’s eligible to hit the open market would be a major accomplishment, although locking him up hasn’t been an easy task up to this point.

Since Lindor has expressed an unwillingness to negotiate an extension during the season, the Mets are currently faced with an uphill battle and will need to do everything they can to keep the superstar shortstop in blue pinstripes long term. But as things stand right now, the two sides remain far apart on a new deal and have only exchanged one offer each, according to Andy Martino of SNY.

Martino also reports that the front office’s opening offer was slightly below $300 million and Lindor’s camp is currently seeking an extension north of that figure. While owner Steve Cohen is determined to keep the 27-year-old around for the long haul, the negotiating deadline is on the horizon and it’ll be extremely important to make significant progress over the next week or these discussions will likely be postponed until this season concludes.

Even though the former first-round pick hasn’t appeared in a single regular season game for the Mets just yet, he’s already become a crucial member of their team and his potential departure would create a massive hole on the roster, especially since management sent infielders Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez to the Cleveland Indians in exchange for him. Despite a disappointing 2020 campaign, at least for his standards, the switch-hitting shortstop is still considered one of the best infielders in the majors and is near the top in multiple different categories.

Over his 3,510 career plate appearances, the 5′ 11″ shortstop has produced the highest fWAR (29.2), the second-most home runs (138), the third-most RBIs (411), the fifth-highest AVG (.285) and the eighth-highest ISO (.202) among all qualified shortstops since the 2015 campaign, according to FanGraphs.com. Additionally, he’s also tied for the fifth-highest OPS (.833), tied for the sixth-highest wOBA (.351) and wRC+ (118), and is tied for the ninth-highest hard-hit rate (37.8%) during that span.

As for his defense, Lindor has created the second-highest UZR (54.0), UZR/150 (11.1), RngR (32.3) and defensive fWAR (87.3), and the sixth-most DRS (38) among all qualified shortstops since 2015. In addition, the generational talent has also generated the third-highest OAA (65) since 2016, which is when MLB started tracking OAA.

Along with Lindor, next offseason’s free-agent class could be flooded with some of the top shortstops in the major leagues, as Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez are all eligible to hit the open market after this season. With this in mind, it’s possible the former Indian’s price point could rise even higher if one of these All-Star infielders signs a lucrative extension before him, potentially raising the market value.

While his exact contract demands remain unclear, it’d make plenty of sense for the two-time Silver Slugger to command a similar deal to Fernando Tatis Jr.‘s 14-year, $340 million extension. But considering he’ll be entering his age-28 season in 2022, there’s a very good chance the proud native of Puerto Rico won’t receive an offer at that same length, however, it’d make much more sense to sign him to a slightly larger contract than the 10-year, $300 million deal Manny Machado signed in 2019.

Though the Mets will probably be willing to spend $300 million-plus on Lindor’s extension, which is a massive price to pay for just one player, agreeing to that enormous figure this spring rather than in the fall could provide several different advantages for the front office’s future plans.

For starters, president Sandy Alderson and his staff would be able to operate all season long without having to worry about the four-time All-Star’s impending free agency, taking a massive weight off their shoulders. As a result, they could focus their attention on extending Conforto, who hasn’t set a firm negotiating deadline, at least for now.

With just over $100 million on the books for the 2022 campaign, which will likely increase to $150-$160 million after contract tendering and arbitration hearings, determining Lindor’s salary before the regular season opens would undoubtedly provide this club with additional clarity regarding their future payroll. In turn, they would have a greater understanding of their financial flexibility moving forward, allowing them to conduct business more effectively next winter.

At that point, if the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is signed, the Mets would probably know exactly how much money they’d be able to spend on acquiring new players and potentially re-signing a few current ones as well. While this strategy wouldn’t guarantee a return for Syndergaard and Stroman, the lighter workload and financial clarity could certainly increase their chances of returning to Queens after this season.

Based on these factors, there’s no question the pressure is on the front office to find a solution to these contract negotiations within these next few weeks. But if they fail to accomplish that feat, then they’ll just be making everyone’s job significantly tougher over the next six months or so and will also be risking the chance of Lindor potentially joining another organization in the offseason.

Considering the trajectory of this team is largely tied to Lindor’s future, they definitely can’t afford to let him leave after the 2021 campaign, although the chances of that happening will only increase the longer he remains without a long-term extension.