The sense around Mets camp seems to be that while a breakthrough in Francisco Lindor’s extension talks could come at any moment, there’s less optimism about a new deal for Michael Conforto. Today in The Athletic, Jim Bowden predicted that Lindor would sign for ten years and $320 million — but that Conforto, represented by Scott Boras, would reach free agency after the season.

Lindor, obviously, is the Mets’ top priority, the star of a blockbuster trade that some have said won’t be worth it unless the Mets extend him. But hopefully, the Mets aren’t working exclusively on Lindor at the expense of getting a deal done with Conforto. The Mets can’t extend everyone, and sometimes there are better options outside the organization, but the Mets need to work hard on an extension for Conforto for a very simple reason: who else is going to play right field?

Sure, there are free-agent options. Here’s MLB.com’s breakdown of the 2021-22 free agent class of outfielders: Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber (mutual option), Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, Nick Castellanos (opt-out), Charlie Blackmon (player option), Andrew McCutchen (club option), Jackie Bradley Jr. (opt-out). The full list of free agents is a little longer, but this one captures the best names available.

Among the group, you have:

-Michael Conforto

-Players who probably aren’t as good as Michael Conforto (Dickerson, Castellanos)

-Players who definitely aren’t as good as Michael Conforto (Schwarber, Rosario, McCutchen, Bradley)

-Players who are at least four years older than Michael Conforto (Pham, Marte, Blackmon)

There’s no free agent outfielder in Conforto’s class who combines youth and talent as well as Conforto does. Arguably besides Blackmon, Conforto is probably the best hitter of the bunch. He has an .864 OPS over the last four seasons; other than Blackmon, that’s the best mark on the list. The various defensive metrics — UZR, DRS, and OAA — all rate Conforto around average in right field over his career, which is more than some outfielders on the list can say. Right now, it’s not really debatable: if the Mets don’t sign him to an extension, Conforto will be the best outfielder on the open market.

Of course, two things can be true at once. On the one hand, Conforto will be the most attractive outfield free-agent option available if the Mets don’t extend him. On the other hand, he’s coming off a monstrous season — batting .322/.412/.515 in 2020, powered in large part by an unsustainable .412 BABIP — so he’s probably overvalued right now. It will be difficult or impossible for Conforto to sustain his superstar-type numbers over full seasons going forward.

Say the Mets extend Conforto tomorrow with a George Springer-type deal, about $25 million a year for five to seven years. They should do so fully aware of two things: 1) Conforto won’t continue to put up the superstar-level numbers he did in 2020, but 2) he’ll still be a very good hitter and a solid defender. An extension right now might be an “overpay” in the traditional sense, but it’s not like the Mets could let Conforto walk and spend that money on a better outfielder instead: there simply won’t be a better free-agent outfielder on whom to spend it.

 

There are two other factors to consider. For one, after 2021, the National League is likely to adopt the designated hitter. If Pete Alonso becomes the Mets’ primary DH, Dominic Smith is likely to move to first base, shifting Brandon Nimmo to left field and opening another outfield slot. Thus, if the Mets lose Conforto, they’ll probably need to find two new outfielders in a free agent class that’s already fairly thin.

For another, the Mets don’t have much depth in their farm system. Khalil Lee is a legitimate prospect, but he hasn’t shown much power and is far from a sure thing; other than that, the Mets next-closest outfield prospect is probably Pete Crow-Armstrong, who won’t be MLB-ready for years.

So if the Mets lose Conforto, the best-case scenario for the starting outfield is either A) Brandon Nimmo, Khalil Lee, and an outside acquisition, or B) Brandon Nimmo and two outside acquisitions. These acquisitions, remember, probably won’t be as good as Conforto.

If Conforto leaves as a free agent after 2021, the Mets’ outfield will take a large step backwards. Meanwhile, Conforto’s value may never be higher, which is why it’s somewhat surprising that Conforto’s representatives aren’t pushing harder to get a deal done right now. Maybe the Mets are gambling that they can re-sign Conforto more cheaply after 2021, and that there won’t be much of a bidding war in free agency. They may be right, but those bets are also risky.

Right now, Conforto’s age and outfield talent are irreplaceable. The Mets can gamble on a regression in hopes of saving a few dollars, but if they lose him, the dollars saved won’t be remotely worth it.