
There may be more snow getting dumped in the northeast right now, but the sights and sounds of spring can’t be ignored.
Like pitchers partaking in PFPs, catchers doing their own receiving drills, and media sessions taking place. Spring training for the New York Mets has officially begun in Port St. Lucie, and it’s impossible to not feel excited about everything going on. Whether your team is projected to win the World Series or be a cellar dweller for an upcoming season, the arrival of spring in the form of pitchers and catchers reporting brings a special kind of energy to the table.
Even for those frustrated by how the offseason has gone the last few weeks, there should be some fun stuff that lies ahead for the Mets in 2021. I’m always excited for New York when pitchers and catchers report, but the excitement I’m currently feeling seems to be far outweighing what I’ve felt in the recent past.
It’s amazing how the presence of one person — looking at you, Steve Cohen — can change the entire perception of an organization when it comes to the on-field product.
The Projection Darlings
We shouldn’t put too much stock in preseason projections. However, the Baseball Gods are making it real hard to not get extra excited as we continue getting more information from various areas.
The first one came from Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, which projects the Mets to win the National League East. That projection alone wasn’t anything new since this is the third year in a row New York is projected to finish as a first-place squad. The actual eye-opening part was recording 95 wins and finishing a full 10 games ahead of anyone else in the division.
FanGraphs’ win-loss projections also have the Mets winning the division, but with what feels like a more reasonable total of 91 wins and just a couple of games ahead of the next-closest NL East foe. But then, they released their preseason 2021 playoff odds, which currently has New York sitting at a very healthy 81.8%. The Mets own the fourth-highest playoff odds in baseball, and it’s the highest New York’s preseason odds have been since entering the year as reigning NL champs in 2016 (80.4%).
Lastly, it’s also eye-opening to see reports of the Mets easily being the most bet on team to win the World Series, according to BetMGM sportsbooks nationwide.
I mean, this is the Mets we’re talking about. We’re not used to seeing them get this much love leading up to a season. It’ll only intensify the “good pressure” manager Luis Rojas mentioned on Wednesday. However, at least the second-year skipper has a vastly different roster in order to try fulfilling these high expectations.
The Proof Is In The Roster Turnover
The last few weeks of winter haven’t gone the way New York was hoping it’d go since they whiffed on top free agents like George Springer and Trevor Bauer. When looking at the offseason overall from an acquisition standpoint, though, it was a huge success.
No, the Mets aren’t perfect and still have holes to fill, but they addressed major needs in the rotation and bullpen, along with upgrading the team defense (and offense) with the additions of guys like James McCann and Francisco Lindor. Team president Sandy Alderson also oversaw a rather significant turnover of the 40-man roster, which is an attempt to improve organizational depth.
#Mets have changed 17 of their 40-man
Carlos Carrasco
Joey Lucchesi
Jordan Yamamoto
Sean Reid-Foley
Yennsy Díaz
Trevor May
Aaron Loup
Jacob Barnes
Sam McWilliams
Stephen Tarpley
James McCann
Francisco Lindor
Jonathan Villar
Jose Martinez
Kevin Pillar
Albert Almora
Khalil Lee— Joe DeMayo (@PSLToFlushing) February 16, 2021
Is this a normal amount of offseason turnover of the 40-man? I’m honestly not too sure. It feels like a lot, though, especially since New York is still in the midst of attempting to make upgrades (hopefully to the bullpen). These are not the same old Mets just getting some random love from projection systems and sportsbooks. This is an organization that has legitimately changed its personnel heading into 2021, and others — both humans and algorithms — are taking notice. It’s OK to feel more excited than usual about the Metsies this season. It’s almost impossible not to.
The only thing left to do now, of course, is the hard work of turning these projections and bets into reality. There’s a long way to go, but the excitement and optimism around the Mets and the 2021 season are just hitting differently this year. Don’t fight it. Enjoy it and everything that comes with it, knowing there will be peaks and valleys along the way throughout the regular season.
Let’s just hope New York is better equipped to minimize the valleys and maximize those performance peaks over the next few months as all good teams do. You know, like the type of team they’re currently projected to be.





