The 2024 New York Mets turned in one of the bigger surprise seasons in franchise history, riding an incredible 100-game finish to the third National League Wild Card spot and two playoff series wins before eventually falling to the future world champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Not many saw a deep playoff run coming from the Mets, as the team entered the year with an over/under win total slightly above the .500 mark at most sportsbooks.
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Surprise playoff runs are no rarity in MLB, and someday there will be one more shocking than the 2024 Mets. What separates them from some of the others, however, is what they did to follow up their miracle finish. For comparison, look at the 2015 Mets, a team widely considered to be a fringe playoff contender entering the year who ultimately had a legitimate shot at a World Series ring. That group fell short, but the wide assumption in baseball was that they would be back and be led by their young pitching.
The winter of 2015 going into 2016, the Mets remained mostly quiet during the offseason. The team retained Yoenis Céspedes, which was their true major move. They also traded left-handed pitcher Jon Niese to the Pittsburgh Pirates for second baseman Neil Walker, and signed Asdrúbal Cabrera to play shortstop.
The Mets let postseason hero Daniel Murphy walk to the division rival Washington Nationals, however, and did not do much to supplement their roster otherwise. Their winter was largely quiet, focusing on retention rather than upgrading. On the premise that the team would improve with their young talent and other prospects on the way, the Mets’ only true upgrade came with the addition of Cabrera at short.
The 2016 Mets ended up sneaking into the playoffs as a Wild Card team, where they’d lose in historic and dramatic fashion to Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants, and would not make the playoffs again until 2022. Despite their loaded crop of young talent, strong job of retaining talent and a hungry roster, the Mets would never get “back” to where they were in 2015, which remains the team’s most recent pennant.
Across baseball, the Cleveland Guardians have failed to build off of multiple ALCS appearances as well as their 2016 AL Pennant, the Dodgers made the playoffs ten times in a row without winning a title during a full season before 2024, and teams like the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers have failed to capitalize on consistent playoff appearances at different points. The common denominator between all of these examples is a lack of championship-level moves in the offseason, whether it be via free agency or trade.
The one exception? Last year’s Dodgers. The team went out and acquired Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Teoscar Hernández, all of whom played major roles in their championship season.
Now to the Mets, who entered the winter of 2024 with major storylines and rumors surrounding them. The team was widely expected to be the eventual highest bidder for Juan Soto. Sudden ace Sean Manaea was hitting the market, as was Pete Alonso, who made up for his below-average walk year (by his own standards) with a playoff OPS of .999 with four homers. Essentially half of the team’s hit free agency too, and president of baseball operations David Stearns had plenty of work to do.
Prior blueprints for what a team should do in the winter following a magical playoff run is not exactly one that paints a picture of success. While it may lead to future postseason appearances, a lack of aggressive moves and hoping for the development of in-house players hardly ever leads to a championship.
The Mets, contrary to the blueprint they had been left, went all in on free agency. Beyond signing Soto, the Mets retained both Manaea and Alonso, added the services of A.J. Minter, returned important contributors in Jesse Winker and Ryne Stanek, and brought in other useful pieces such as starters Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes alongside center fielder Jose Siri.
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In total, the Mets have spent over $1 billion in total contract value this winter. Soto’s $765 million led the way by a significant margin, but the Mets did not shy away from spending afterwards either. The Mets had every excuse to ride the tail of their 2024 campaign, touting their success, fan interest, media attention and simple all-around fun they had. However, as teams have shown before, hoping those factors extend into a new season and are enough to help repeat and grow upon prior success rarely works.
Instead of hoping to build off of their achievements last year, some of which can be left up to random chance, the Mets took steps to make sure that they will be a better team entering 2025 than they were entering 2024. This does not guarantee year-over-year growth or a deeper playoff run for the Mets, but the team enacted the correct process. Every now and again, an inspiring one-off will win a ring while on a Cinderella run. Far more often, however, teams that utilize strong practices, implement good processes and make the playoffs routinely win championships.
Since 2015, only three teams have made the playoffs at least eight times: the New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Dodgers. The Yankees are the only club among that group not to win a ring, let alone two, and only have one pennant to show for their work.
Regardless, those three teams are the perfect examples of good processes: teams that built upon their upstart seasons, added star power when the timing was right, and for two of them, winnings titles was the result.
The Mets still have work to do and are not far removed from a 90-loss season. However, with the duo of Stearns and owner Steve Cohen in charge, the Mets found the perfect time to jump on the free agent market and execute an incredibly aggressive winter. In the end, the Mets walk away with likely the second-best offseason haul in baseball, next to the Dodgers.
The Mets used the right processes this winter by waiting out key markets and now figure to be one of the World Series favorites in 2025. It might not have always been the most fun winter, and it was assuredly more stressful than others, but they made every move they needed to make while compiling one of their most complete rosters in recent memory.
Will that translate to a championship? It’s too early to tell. As we know, nothing is guaranteed in sports. Despite that, if a team makes the playoffs more often than it misses, a ring will likely be in their future.
