Opinion: Gio Gonzalez Would Fit Perfectly With Mets

After struggling to keep runs off the board last season, it was clear the New York Mets needed to make some significant changes to their starting rotation this offseason, as they couldn’t afford to open next season without adding at least one impact starter.

Though the process took several months to complete, the front office finally addressed the pitching staff and was able to acquire one of the top hurlers available through trade. Along with landing shortstop Francisco Lindor, which is a major accomplishment in itself, management also received pitcher Carlos Carrasco from the Cleveland Indians in exchange for a package of Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario, Josh Wolf, and Isaiah Greene.

Following this blockbuster trade, the Mets’ rotation is now expected to consist of Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, David Peterson, Steven Matz, and Carrasco. In addition, pitchers like Seth Lugo, Corey Oswalt, and potentially Robert Gsellman could also compete for the final spot in that group when spring training rolls around.

But considering Matz – who posted a 9.68 ERA and a 7.76 FIP through just 30 2/3 innings in 2020 – was demoted to the bullpen multiple times last season, it’d probably be wise for general manager Jared Porter and his staff to acquire someone capable of providing some much-needed length at the back of their rotation.

Since there are still several holes on this roster that need to be addressed, it’d also be very beneficial if this pitcher came at a very team-friendly price.

So who should the Mets target for this role?

Well, there are certainly a ton of options still available in free agency, but someone like Gio Gonzalez, 35, could be perfectly suited to join this team. Since he nearly signed with the Mets back in 2019 and would be reunited with catcher James McCann – who caught him throughout last season – there’d likely be plenty of mutual interest to make this transaction come to fruition.

Though he’s inching toward the end of his career, the left-hander can still perform at a reasonably high level and there’s a strong chance he’d be able to bring some stability to the club’s pitching staff. Considering the veteran hurler has compiled at least 150 innings in nine of his last 11 seasons, that type of reliability would certainly be a welcomed addition to this organization next season.

While Gonzalez has remained relatively healthy through the majority of his career, the lack of a full and uninterrupted spring training prevented him from staying on the mound during the 2020 campaign, as he was plagued by a nagging shoulder injury and also sustained a groin injury midway through the summer.

Unfortunately, being placed on the injured list multiple times didn’t allow the former Chicago White Sox to get into any sort of rhythm, which negatively impacted his limited results and ultimately caused him to lose his starting role.

Over his 31 2/3 innings, the two-time All-Star produced a 4.83 ERA, 5.54 xERA, 5.50 FIP, 4.80 xFIP, 112 ERA-, 1.86 WHIP, .303 AVG, .370 BABIP, 22.2% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate (highest since rookie season), 27.8% LD rate, 42.3% GB rate, 29.9% FB rate, 7.1% barrel rate, 32.7% hard-hit rate, and a -0.1 fWAR rating.

Despite these concerning metrics, things weren’t entirely disappointing for Gonzalez last season, as he was still able to enjoy a ton of success with both his low-80s changeup and mid-70s curveball. If not for the struggles he endured with his low-90s fastball, which allowed a .410 AVG, .365 xAVG, .538 SLG, .557 xSLG, .475 wOBA, and a .451 xwOBA, there’s a strong chance the soft-throwing lefty would’ve performed very effectively.

Starting with Gonzalez’s changeup, which is his primary offering, it doesn’t necessarily generate plenty of vertical or horizontal movement, although it makes up for that by creating a ton of spin. Utilizing its full potential, the former first-round pick’s primary off-speed pitch recorded a 98% active spin percentage in 2020, which was the third-highest percentage among all pitchers who threw at least 100 changeups.

Thanks to its deceiving spin rotation, it finished tied for allowing the fourth-lowest xwOBA (.217), the seventh-lowest xAVG (.177), the ninth-lowest xSLG (.267), the 12th-lowest AVG (.184), tied for the 12th-lowest hard-hit rate (23.5%), and tied for the 15th-lowest SLG (.306) among all pitchers who faced at least 50 batters last season. Additionally, it also generated the eighth-highest whiff rate (41.5%) as well.

As for Gonzalez’s curveball, which he utilized 19% of the time in 2020, it also generates a ton of spin but also creates plenty of vertical and horizontal movement. Even though it took a minor step backward regarding its movements last season, the Flordia native’s primary strikeout weapon still averaged 61.3 inches of drop (decreased by 5.6 inches from 2019), 11.9 inches of break, and also created an 87% active spin percentage.

In comparison to the rest of the league, the Monsignor Edward Pace HS standout’s curveball finished tied with the 12th-highest active spin percentage, the 20th-highest average inches of drop, and the 27th-highest average inches of break among all pitchers who threw at least 100 breaking balls.

As a result of these impressive spin rotations, it surrendered just a .182 AVG, .191 xAVG, .364 SLG, .361 xSLG, .263 wOBA, .263 xwOBA, and a 27.3% hard-hit rate. In addition, it also induced a 45.8% strikeout rate (highest among all of his pitches), 45.2% whiff rate, and a 31.3% chase rate.

If Gonzalez can stay healthy throughout next season, then he shouldn’t have any issues bouncing back during his 14th campaign in the major leagues, especially since both his changeup and curveball were extremely dominant in 2020.

While it’d be unfair to expect him to throw at least 180 innings and post a sub-3.00 ERA, which he accomplished in both 2012 and 2017, compiling around 120 innings and producing a sub-4.00 ERA should definitely be in his range.

From the Mets’ perspective, if they can sign him close to what he made last season, which was $4.5 million, the former Washington National could prove to be extremely useful next season. Though he’d likely start in the rotation, the veteran hurler does feature some prior experience as a reliever, meaning he could be moved to the bullpen once pitcher Noah Syndergaard returns from his Tommy John surgery.

While acquiring Gonzalez surely wouldn’t grab the attention of the fan base, there’s no question he could help improve New York’s rotation even further, which could serve as a major strength for this team moving forward.