Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
The starting pitching market is thinning out by the hour and it’s especially scarce for left-handed options. The Mets are slated to have a five-man rotation made up of all right-handed pitchers but what if there was a lefty last season who had nearly identical underlying stats as Marcus Stroman?
Stroman departed the Mets this offseason, choosing to sign a three-year, $71 million deal with the Chicago Cubs. Stroman was New York’s most reliable starting option with a league-high 33 games started and a 3.02 ERA in 179.0 innings.
But Stroman is expected to heavily regress in 2022 after having an xERA of 4.30 in 2021. Steamer projects the righty to have a 4.43 ERA in 188.0 innings with a strikeout rate under 20%.
Stroman is a sinker-ball pitcher who wins by inducing loads of ground balls. Out of 521 batted balls, half of them went into the dirt. By all accounts, Stroman’s traditional box score stats paint an image of excellency but his MLB Statcast percentile rankings paint a different story.
Stroman was in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xERA, xSLG, and K%. Here’s the full look.
Now, who is a free agent who the Mets were interested in at the trade deadline last year? Unless you’re an expert on 32-year-old left-handed pitchers in the Pacific North West then you likely weren’t able to guess the player in the top image.
Tyler Anderson is searching for a new home after splitting time between Pittsburgh and Seattle last season. Anderson’s traditional box score numbers don’t come close to Stroman’s (5-8 record, 4.35 ERA, 103.1 innings) but the Statcast paints a different story.
The two pitchers were nearly identical in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and BB%.
Where the pitchers differ is how they get guys out. While Stroman uses his sinker and slider to induce ground balls, they are usually hit pretty hard. Anderson uses a primary four-seam, cutter, changeup mix that leads to soft contact with an average exit velocity of 87 miles per hour. In 2016, Anderson ranked in the top 1% of the league with an average exit velocity of 84.9 miles per hour.
The Mets were one of the best defensive teams in baseball last year, ranking ninth in defensive runs saved. The Mariners and Pirates were in the bottom third of the league at 20th and 21st, respectively. They each finished with negative runs saved as a team, with the main culprit being the outfield.
New York has made an effort to improve their defense again with plus-defender additions like Starling Marte, that moves Brandon Nimmo to a corner outfield spot.
New York needs a lefty starter. The only one on the 40-man right now is David Peterson who is coming back from an injury. Anderson won’t cost much (although Steve Cohen is willing to spend) and an improved defense behind him could lead to the same success that Stroman had in 2021.
If he’s able to turn his changeup into a reliable out pitch then Anderson could slot in as a reliable back-end starter, just to give teams different looks.
