One Call Away: Mike Vasil Deep Dive

Mike Vasil has been off to a dominant start in the first half of the 2023 season in Double-A. He had an impressive spring training and he is far and away the organization’s top pitching prospect. He had an impressive and encouraging MLB spring training start and it was an important moment to demonstrate some composure in a pressure filled environment.

His current arsenal features a mid-90 mph fastball, a slider in the upper-80 mph range, a sharp low 80s mph curveball, and a developing split changeup. Vasil’s fastball averages 94.2 mph and has topped at 97.1 with slightly above average vertical break (VB) at 16.5 inches. His fastball usage of 50 percent may be a bit high if it was at the big-league level, however, his ridiculous swing and miss numbers on it so far this year are justification that it “ain’t broke.”

Entering last season, his curveball was his primary offspeed pitch but his slider has taken that crown through this point in the season. The 87 mph “gyro” slider has over a 20 percent usage rate and a profile of 4 inches of VB and -1 inches horizontal break (HB).

His third pitch now is the changeup with good depth at 85 mph. He kills 9 inches of VB off of his fastball which in itself is well above average but even better for a third pitch.

His signature curveball averages 82 mph with -12 inches of VB and will be an important strikes pitch in Queens to keep hitters off of the slider, to set up the high fastball, and to get him back into counts.

In terms of his results so far this season, all four pitches have a total miss rate above the 80th percentile individually and combined his arsenal sits in the 97th percentile for total misses. He has a 33.3 strikeout rate to go along with an equally impressive 4.3 walk rate which are outlier stats that will propel him to the show.

The batted ball results are equally as favorable. He has a 47 Trackman RPG- meaning he is inducing damage and exit velocity at a rate 53% better than normal (100 being Double-A league average).

All of his pitches profile well against both righties and lefties. He can strikeout both types of hitters with all four pitches which is highly unusual. While the vertical working pitches are falling slightly less out of style with the sinker making a return, Vasil has a balanced enough arsenal to have long-term success working up and down more than side to side.

Of course, his changeup and slider can work to both sides of the plate well along with his fastball. So, he can adapt if needed down the line. While his fastball and curveball miss numbers are slightly lower against lefties, his fastball whiffs are still well above average. His slider has almost equal results against both types of hitters and, as expected, he smartly increases the usage to 35 percent against left-handed hitters.

He has at least five innings pitched in each of his last five starts and his last two have both been over seven innings. With José Butto, Dylan Bundy, and others struggling in Syracuse (Triple-A) right now, Vasil might be getting a call up soon.

In terms of MLB rotation depth, behind Joey Lucchesi and David Peterson, Vasil looks to be in the running as the third option. He should be added to the Syracuse roster in short form and will continue to make his case for a 2023 debut.