Well, guys, looks like I jinxed it, so before I say anything else, I’m very sorry.

Earlier this week, I mentioned the New York Mets had mostly escaped dealing with significant injuries during Summer Camp while discussing how fragile the rotation depth was. But of course, I had to open my big mouth and now Marcus Stroman is on the shelf with a calf tear for who knows how long. Hopefully, the right-hander will be back sooner rather than later. With just a 60-game season starting Friday, though, this feels like a significant blow — regardless of how New York decides to fill the void.

MLB teams typically anticipate using at least seven starters throughout a given year, but the Mets are already at that point without playing a single regular season game. At the start of Spring Training, it seemed like Michael Wacha was on the outside looking in before a spot opened up for him because of Noah Syndergaard’s Tommy John surgery. That wasn’t cool, but a Jacob deGrom-Stroman one-two punch was still attractive for the rotation.

Now that Stro is on the injured list, look who has magically slid into the rotation’s number-two spot: Steven Matz. You know, the guy that is suddenly hitting mid- to upper-90s with his fastball as Opening Day approaches.

He’ll be starting Game 2 of 60 on Saturday against the Atlanta Braves. It’s hard to believe that the southpaw has been in the big leagues since 2015, but here we are. And since he posted an impressive 3.16 ERA and 3.44 FIP during his first 168 big-league innings from 2015-16, we’ve been waiting for a true breakout that everyone thought would be when he was ranked among the top 20 prospects in baseball according to multiple outlets entering 2016.

I know I’ve been waiting for it and have tried to justify that it’s been imminent on more than one occasion. Honestly, though, this would be the perfect time for it all to come to pass. And maybe — just maybe! — the right things are in place for it to actually happen.

While I’m nervous about jinxing things again, I’m going to have to say the following anyways. After dealing with a number of IL trips during the early parts of his professional career, Matz has finally displayed consistent health over the past couple seasons. Between 2015 and 2017, the lefty compiled a total of 234.2 innings of work. In 2018 and 2019, he’s managed to surpass the 150-inning plateau on both occasions, setting a new personal high in each instance.

Although the shortened season won’t allow Matz to try topping the 160.1 frames he tossed last year, it’s important to note that he’s finally found a way to take the ball every five days. When it comes to production, he’s also shown flashes of what he’s capable of upon starting to toe the slab more consistently.

The past two seasons have been on each end of the spectrum from an ERA standpoint. After posting a 3.38 mark in the first half of 2018, that number went up to 4.97 following the All-Star break despite a slight drop in opponent wOBA (.318 to .315). One positive from this progression was a noticeable rise in strikeouts while also improving his control. Matz’s walk rate went from 9.1% to 8.5% over this period of time, and his strikeout rate took a significant jump from 20.9% to 27.1%.

That lift in whiff rate didn’t continue in 2019 (22.1% last year), but his walk rate continued to decrease (8.0% in first half, 7.0% in second half) as his ERA went from 4.89 pre-All-Star break to 3.52 post-All-Star break. This was highlighted by a dominant stretch in July and August, spanning 53.2 innings. He went at least six innings in six of his nine starts (which included a complete-game shutout) and posted a 23.2% strikeout rate with a 4.6% walk rate, 1.08 WHIP, and a 2.68 ERA.

So the flashes of brilliance is there, it’s just a matter of sustaining it over a longer period of time. That’s where new pitching coach Jeremy Hefner comes into play. We can presume he’s been a main driver in this reported uptick in velocity from Matz based on the work they’ve already done together.

Matz had always been a little skeptical of analytics and how he can incorporate what’s shared with him to what he does on the mound, but that’s something Hefner excels at. Having some new information is great, but it’s useless unless a hurler knows how to actually take advantage of it when they’re performing. It seems like Hefner has found a way to have it all make sense for his lefty.

Is Matz ready to be a front-of-the-rotation starter? Who the heck knows, but we’ll soon find out. Let’s hope this is the year he finally puts together a breakout campaign. Partially because we’ve been waiting and hoping for it to happen, and partially because the Mets could use it now more than ever.