MMO Fan Shot: Could We See a .400 Hitter in 2020?

Some analysts think that the .400 level will never be accomplished again (over an entire regular season schedule), due to higher and more consistent levels of competition — as well as specialization such as the rise of relief pitchers. We have seen some near misses including Rod Carew’s .388 in 1977 and George Brett’s .390 in 1980. More recently, Larry Walker reached .379 in 1999.

It is notable that one of the highest batting averages in history came during 1994’s strike-shortened season — when Tony Gwynn batted .394. Reaching the .400 level is such an elusive milestone that it often takes a unique mix of events to achieve that mark. The long baseball season has a way of causing a “reversion to the mean” (or at least drop back to more realistic levels, as even the best batters cannot sustain averages above.350 for very long). Thus, anything that reduces the “number of at-bats” can improve a player’s chances. This might include a higher number of walks, missing a few games — or in this case, a shorter season.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

One approach to analyze the odds of someone batting .400 this season is to study summary statistics such as standard deviation, and averages, as a function of sample size (including the shorter season and lower expected number of at-bats). Statistics and probability distributions can be used to describe a variety of events.

Over the past 25 seasons, the MLB batting average leader has averaged a .355 batting average, with a standard deviation of .013 points. During this time, the range has seen a high of .379 from Larry Walker in 1999 and a low of .335 (several times).

With a shorter season, we expect the league leader to bat higher than .355, and the standard deviation of that result to also be higher. Probability fans may recall that the standard deviation of a sample is a function of the square root of sample size.

Depending on our assumptions, we expect that the top MLB batting average will be in the .375-.380 range during the shortened 2020 season. With the standard deviation of results also higher, the summary statistics predict that a .400 hitter will be just under a “a 1.5 standard deviation event” — or roughly a 7.5% event. This is just one method of analyzing results; below we aim to triangulate results by using Monte Carlo analyses.

HISTORICAL RESULTS

While we have not seen a .400 hitter over an entire season since Ted Williams’ 1941, results show that several batters have accomplished this feat during 60-game stretches.

The Elias Sports Bureau highlights Jose Altuve (2017), Joey Votto (2016), Andrew McCutchen (2012), Hanley Ramirez (2009) and Albert Pujols (2003).

Some analysts have focused on “the first 60 games” of the season — and the fact that hitters fare worse during the beginning of the season. However, it is noteworthy that the “normal first 60 games” are during the colder months of April and May. This year’s start, in late-July (near August) — could be helpful not only to home run hitters, but hitters in general.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS

In a series of articles for the New York Times a few years back, we applied Monte Carlo simulations to model the tennis U.S. Open. We apply a model using a random process (or probabilistic event) to obtain a better understanding of potential outcomes.

https://straightsets.blogs.nytimes.com/author/carlton-j-chin/

We can apply a similar approach to the varying size of a baseball season. For this study, we set up Monte Carlo analyses to simulate over a hundred thousand baseball seasons for top batters.

Indeed, we see that the probability of any batter attaining a .400 average over an entire 162-game MLB season is less than 1%. If we recognize that certain factors can result in fewer at-bats for certain players, this figure climbs to just above 1%. (For example, in 1980, Brett played in just 117 games; in 1941, Williams had a huge number of walks: 147).

These results mean that in the “current” world of MLB, we would see a .400 hitter about once every 100 baseball seasons (entire 162-game season)!

But what about this year’s shortened season? Depending on assumptions, our Monte Carlo results show an 8–11% chance that we might see “some” batter stay hot over 60 games and achieve that .400 mark.

SUMMARY

Based on a variety of methods, we estimate that the probability of seeing a batter eclipse the .400 level over the “official 60-game season” is on the order of 8–10%. We applied several methods and triangulated results to get to this answer. As a final check, we compared our results to the sportsbooks to see if we can find value on either side of the “bet.” One sportsbook offered 8–1 odds for a .400 hitter (Yes); the overall “implied probability” (for the Yes and No, and eliminating the “vig”) is about 9%.

No matter what happens, we hope that sports fans will enjoy the 2020 baseball season — and that our world will see better days ahead.

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This Fan Shot was contributed by diehard Mets fan Carlton Chin

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