Noah Syndergaard is still on the Mets, you guys. And thank goodness, because it would’ve really been tough to have seen him wearing any other jersey right now (or ever, really).
He turned in one of his most dominant performances of the season on the eve of the trade deadline against the Chicago White Sox: one run allowed on five hits, one walk, and 11 strikeouts in 7.1 innings of work. He didn’t get the win, but New York did in the end, and Thor made a statement while on the mound. Thankfully, that performance didn’t boost his trade value, as the right-hander was reportedly taken off the table in talks at some point Tuesday night.
While what Brodie Van Wagenen and the Mets did (or didn’t do) prior to the trade deadline passing after acquiring Marcus Stroman is a bit of a head-scratcher, this team has a better chance at accomplishing anything with Syndergaard on the roster. So it seems as if that was at least the right call. Although he’s had some ups and downs throughout this season, Thor has been quite good since returning from the All-Star break.
He’s put together four consecutive quality starts, which has included seven-plus innings at least eight strikeouts in each appearance. The 26-year-old entered the midsummer break with a 4.68 ERA through 105.2 innings but has come back from that respite to post a 1.91 ERA in his most recent 28.1 frames.
So what’s been different? One thing that easily jumps out is his slider usage.
When looking back at Syndergaard’s young career, the righty’s slider has been a huge asset. Between 2015 and 2018, that offering never produced a strikeout rate lower than 40.0%, while opposing hitters couldn’t muster more than a 32 wRC+ in any season. This year has been different, though — Syndergaard’s slider has produced a 37.7% strikeout rate (not too far off from what he’s done in the past) to go along with a 100 wRC+ (very far off from what he’s done in the past).
In talking about Edwin Diaz‘s struggles earlier this week, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello hit on something that’s seemingly been plaguing Syndergaard, too — the location of his slider has been drastically different in 2019 than compared to earlier seasons.
I wonder if this is true for Syndergaard too. SL zone rate:
16 — 38%
17 — 34%
18 — 31%
19 — 53% ?!This year, that's 50% in-zone to Ramos, 41.5% in-zone to Nido.
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) July 29, 2019
The decreased effectiveness of what was once a lethal weapon for Syndergaard led to him using it less than he ever had (outside of his rookie year) throughout the first half. Between 2016 and 2018, Thor’s slider usage hung right around 20.0%, but it was just 10.5% following his start on July 6th against the Philadelphia Phillies. In fact, after throwing it at more than an 11.0% clip through each of his first six starts, Syndergaard’s slider usage eclipsed 10.0% just twice over his next 11 starts.
As one can imagine, this has done a complete about-face since the break. In each of his last four starts, he hasn’t thrown his slider less than 18.1% of the time, with it eclipsing 20.0% in his last three. The change in value of this pitch has been drastically different when looking at these two time periods, too.
Through July 6th, Syndergaard’s slider had produced a value of -2.42 per 100 pitches, according to FanGraphs. Since July 13th, that number has jumped all the way up to 4.13. Obviously, the sample sizes are a bit lopsided, but this plus the increased usage is a pretty good indicator that he’s getting his confidence back in the pitch. The results have also followed when looking at the performance of opposing hitters. Here’s a quick snapshot of the opposition’s Isolated Power against Syndergaard’s slider on a monthly basis this season, via Brooks Baseball:
These are the kinds of numbers we’ve grown accustomed to seeing Syndergaard put up when he toes the slab. It’s awesome to have the dominant Noah come back in full force, and doing it in a way we’ve seen before.
Based off how they approached trade deadline day, the Mets think they can turn things around and legitimately compete for a playoff spot. Regardless of whether that’s actually true or not, they’ll need Syndergaard to be the guy he’s historically been to actually accomplish such a goal. It looks like New York will have that pitcher as they embark on a crucial stretch.
