NL East Farm System Analysis: Philadelphia Phillies

The first two editions of our trip around the NL East’s farm systems took us to the warmer climates of Atlanta and Miami, so it’s time to head back north. While it might be colder there, it’s always sunny. And recently, for some reason, always drinking raw milk. Weird. Anyway, let’s get to it.

LEAGUE RANKINGS

As with the previous editions, we’ll be using the most recent farm system rankings from MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and FanGraphs, and this time the newly released ranking from Keith Law at The Athletic will also be included.

Baseball America: 14
MLB Pipeline: 16
FanGraphs: 13
The Athletic: 11

The Phillies have simultaneously managed to make the playoffs in three-straight seasons and build a strong farm system. It’s not top-tier, but it’s strong. Headlined by perhaps MLB’s top pitching prospect and one of the strongest bats from the 2023 draft, the Phils have a couple of true studs leading the way for them in the minors

TOP PLAYERS TO KNOW

Far and away the best player in the Phillies’ system is Andrew Painter, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. He is a supremely talented arm who has dealt with injuries in recent years and hasn’t thrown a pitch in a minor league game since 2022. When on the mound though, he’s been dominant.

In 2022, Painter made 22 minor league starts across Single-A Clearwater, High-A Jersey Shore and Double-A Reading and dominated at every level. In 103 2/3 total innings across the three levels, Painter posted a 1.56 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with an absurd 155 to 25 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

He features a fastball with elite velocity that Pipeline and Baseball America each have as a 70-grade pitch. Both sites also have him with a 60-grade slider, 55-grade changeup and 50-grade changeup, and while they differ slightly on his control grade (65-grade from Pipeline and 70-grade from Baseball America), both are well above-average.

In spring training ahead of the 2023 season, Painter injured his elbow. He underwent Tommy John surgery a few months later, which cost him the next two seasons. This past fall, he made his return to action in the Arizona Fall League. Over 15 2/3 innings, Painter gave up four earned runs with 18 strikeouts and four walks, earning him AFL Pitcher of the Year honors.

Painter was selected No. 13 overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, just three picks after the Mets chose Kumar Rocker. Drafted out of high school, Painter will turn just 22 on April 1 despite pitching in, or being injured for, parts of four minor league seasons. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be a big part of Philadelphia’s rotation for a long, long time.

After Painter, Philly’s other top farmhands are bats. Leading the way is Aidan Miller, an infield prospect who is a shortstop right now but could very well move to third base by the time he reaches the majors. Miller being the successor to Alec Bohm at the hot corner in a year or two while keeping Trea Turner at shortstop seems like a natural course of action.

A first-round pick in 2023, Miller had a strong showing this past season in his first full year of pro ball. Over 102 games between Single-A, High-A and Double-A, Miller hit .261/.366/.446/.812 with 11 home runs, 28 doubles and six triples. His wRC+ (133) was in the top 10 among players 20-years-old or younger who played at least 100 minor league games in 2024, and he was one of only five of them to reach as high as Double-A.

Miller is a high-ranked prospect across the board, clocking in at No. 27 on Pipeline and No. 36 on Baseball America, but no one is higher on him than Law. Miller ranks No. 13 on The Athletic’s list, just one spot behind Painter. Law raved about Miller’s bat and his ability to make quick adjustments while also saying his defense has been good enough to move Turner off of shortstop when he’s ready for the big leagues.

Also making an appearance on the top 100 lists is Justin Crawford, son of longtime MLB outfielder Carl Crawford. Like his dad, Justin projects to be both a plus outfield defender and a menace on the base paths. Both Pipeline and Baseball America have Crawford with an above-average hit tool and below-average power, and his 2024 season reflects just that.

In 110 games between High-A and Double-A, Crawford hit .313/.360/.444/.804 with nine homers, 25 doubles, four triples and 42 stolen bases. He was one of just five players age 21 or younger to hit over .310 in at least 100 minor league games, as was Mets prospect Nick Morabito. Crawford and Morabito were the only ones of the five to steal at least 40 bases, with the latter leading the way with 59.

Rounding out the group of the best Phillies prospects is Eduardo Tait, an 18-year-old catcher who has really impressed in his first two seasons of pro ball. Tait tore up the Dominican Summer League in 2023, moved stateside in 2024 and didn’t miss a beat. In 79 games between rookie ball and Single-A, Tait hit .302/.356/.486/.842 with 11 home runs and 18 doubles. His 127 wRC+ was the best among 17-year-olds who played at least 60 minor league games, and was one of just three players his age to even reach the 60-game mark.

Both Pipeline and Baseball America have Tait with a 50-grade hit tool and 60-grade power to go with a plus arm and below-average backstop defense, but with how young he is, there’s plenty of time for his glove to improve. He’s far, far out from the big leagues, but if he has another good season in 2025, don’t be surprised to see him skyrocket up prospect lists.

One other name to keep an eye on this season is outfielder Griffin Burkholder, a second-round pick in 2024. Burkholder signed for well over slot value as the Phillies lured him away from his commitment to West Virginia. A recent draftee, he obviously has no legitimate track record to point to in pro ball, but he has some serious helium as a prospect. A strong 2025 would put him firmly in all top 100 lists.

ANY 2025 IMPACTS?

Philadelphia’s lineup is mostly set heading into 2025 and it will feature all the familiar faces from the past few years plus free agent acquisition Max Kepler. The rotation is mostly set too, especially after trading for Jesús Luzardo from the Marlins. However, everyone knows you need way more than five starting pitchers to make it through a 162-game season, and the Phillies are well-equipped to call on their minor league depth when needed.

It all starts with Painter. Yes, his recent appearance in the Arizona Fall League was his first in-game action in over two years. And yes, he’s only thrown 28 1/3 innings at Double-A and zero innings at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. But his stuff is so nasty, and he’s dominated every place he’s been, so he might as well just throw some major league innings at this point. The Phillies will certainly want to carefully manage his workload after not pitching for two seasons, and as discussed, their starting rotation is set, so Painter could find a temporary home in the big league bullpen. Let him contribute in 2025 — he’s definitely good enough to face MLB hitting — and then stretch him out to be part of the 2026 rotation.

In terms of who could make spot starts for the Phillies, that list begins with Mick Abel. A highly regarded prospect heading into 2024, Abel had a dreadful year at Triple-A. In 24 starts, he posted a 6.46 ERA and 5.47 FIP, making him one of just 16 minor league pitchers to throw over 100 innings and have an ERA over six (along with Dom Hamel and Mike Vasil of the Syracuse Mets).

Abel lights up the radar gun and has good breaking stuff but really struggles with control, and it came to a head last season when he walked 78 batters in 108 2/3 innings. He has a much stronger pedigree than what he showed last season, so if he gets back on the right track in 2025, he could easily be in play to take a rotation spot if someone goes down.

Seth Johnson, who the Phillies acquired from the Baltimore Orioles in the Gregory Soto deal last season, is another option. Johnson even made one big league start in 2024, but it did not go well, giving up nine earned runs in 2 1/3 innings against the Marlins. That said, it’s just one outing, and he has multiple years of minor league pedigree that should give him another chance at some point.

Michael Mercado is another arm who had a not-so-great big league cameo in 2024. He’s been used as both a starter and a reliever in the majors and the minors, and there’s no reason for that to change this year. Moisés Chace — also in the Soto deal — could be an option in either the rotation or bullpen in the back half of the season, and the same goes for Jean Cabrera.

One bat to keep an eye on is infielder Otto Kemp, who had an OPS of .881 across four levels last season while reaching as high as Triple-A. There’s also a small chance Miller could be a September call-up if he really impresses and the Phillies have a need on their infield during the playoff push.