New York Mets Offseason Outlook: Part I

Heading into the 2023-24 offseason, the Mets find themselves in a unique situation. They currently have four all-star caliber players slated to play every day for them: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil. They also have four inexperienced major league-ready players who have all recently graduated from being top 100 prospects: Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos. Lastly, they have three top 50 prospects, who are all expected to make their MLB debuts at some point during the 2024 season: Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuña and Jett Williams.

This unique situation makes constructing the 2024 roster a bit complicated. On the one hand, you want to provide your young players with every opportunity, and on the other hand, developmental trajectories are never linear, and ensuring you have ample support already on the roster is tantamount. Not only is it crucial for staying competitive through bouts of struggles or swathes of injury, but it is also important from a team-building perspective, to have a competitive roster and that “next man up” mentality.

For the first time during Steve Cohen’s tenure, the Mets may not be a playoff contender next season. With a few large decisions looming, the long-term direction of the franchise seems very clear, yet the 2024 season is likely to be one of transition. The Mets have a handful of young position players already on the roster and a few more who will be ready at some point during the season. They are probably hoping that while they might look worse on paper to start the season, by midseason or later, they will look more like the Orioles or Reds rather than the Pirates or Nationals.

The other elephant in the room is Shohei Ohtani. And the Mets’ whole offseason strategy may hinge on his decision. Whether Ohtani decides to play for the Mets may play into their decision to push harder in free agency. Yet, as things stand now, it doesn’t look like the Mets will make any large splashes in free agency this offseason. They may instead decide to go bargain shopping, looking for potential turnarounds and proven players who can provide above-replacement-level production until more of their young players are major league-ready.

I, therefore, wanted to break down what their 26-man roster looks like going into the offseason to see where they could potentially look to add in free agency, as well as into which prospects can impact their 2024 season at different points:

C: Francisco Álvarez, Omar Narváez

IF: Pete Alonso, Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, Zack Short

OF: Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, DJ Stewart

SP: Kodai Senga, José Quintana, Tylor Megill, José Butto, Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson (IL)

RP: Edwin Díaz, Brooks Raley, Phil Bickford, Drew Smith, Josh Walker, Grant Hartwig, Reed Garrett, Sean Reid-Foley

As things stand immediately following the non-tender deadline, the Mets have 28 players on their 40-man roster. With the low possibility of Luisangel Acuña or Alex Ramirez breaking camp with the team, they are currently looking at a long and difficult offseason. To say the least, trimming a whole third of a roster within a single month or so is more akin to fantasy sports than professional sports. Yet, as we have seen, Steve Cohen is willing to do things a little differently.

This team is not very good, regardless of the amount of young talent. Overall, this roster should probably win somewhere between 70 and 75 games. The outfield, bullpen, and starters are all close to the bottom of the MLB, and the team could use some added versatility. With David Stearns in tow, he has been 100% empowered to strip down and build back up as only he sees fit. Luckily, David Stearns is one of the best in the business, especially when it comes to quick turnarounds and acquiring undervalued assets.

The Minors

Prospect-wise, the expectation is that Drew Gilbert and Luisangel Acuña will be playing up the middle and leading off games in Syracuse to begin the season. It is hard to know exactly when they will be Queens-bound as they are both still developing and fine-tuning their skills. It is reasonably safe to say that at some point this season, they will be in Queens, whether that happens in May or September is hard to predict.

The Syracuse rotation will feature Mike Vasil and Dominic Hamel, with Vasil having an outside chance of cracking the Mets rotation in Spring Training, albeit unlikely. The question is whether Christian Scott, the Mets’ newly ranked number-one pitching prospect by BA, will be a part of the Syracuse rotation as well. Following a downright dominant season, which saw Scott cement himself as a borderline top-100 prospect, Scott may start the season in Binghamton as he’s barely amassed 100 innings above low-A ball. That being said, the 62 innings in which he did pitch in Binghamton were elite. He pitched to a 2.47/2.47/2.96 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) trip-slash line.

The Syracuse bullpen will also be one to watch with the likes of Bryce Montes de Oca, Eric Orze and left-hander Nate Lavender repeating the level. A slew of newcomers will join them as they start the season in Triple-A. Headlined by Paul Gervase, who took the Mets system by storm and dominated both A+ and AA to the tune of a 2.05 ERA. Gervase has nasty stuff, and my bet is we will see him in Citi Field sooner than expected. The other future bullpen arms in AAA are Trey McLoughlin, who was outstanding in AA and posted a swinging strike rate of 17%, Dylan Tebrake and Brendan Hardy.

In Binghamton, the Mets will have another handful of future bullpen pieces that can all potentially move fast and make the majors by April 2025 at the latest. Those names include Raimon Gómez, Eli Ankeney, Jeffrey Colón and Saul García. This is the largest crop of upper-level bullpen arms the Mets have compiled possibly ever, and it is an exciting and underrated part of a burgeoning farm system.

The Mets will have a few more known names on their AAA roster worth mentioning, barring losing them in the Rule 5 Draft. These include the recently acquired Jeremiah Jackson and Justin Jarvis, as well as Matt Rudick, Brandon McIlwain and Luke Ritter. These players are most likely depth major league pieces at best, and some may never even make it that far.

Their AA team will also have some noteworthy names like top prospect Jett Williams, who will continue refining his game while playing second, shortstop and center field. If he can continue his top-flight performance in all aspects of the game, he could be in the big leagues before too long. Kevin Parada, Ryan Clifford, Blade Tidwell, Tyler Stuart and Coleman Crow all litter the Mets’ top 20 prospect list and will all be integral parts of the Rumble Ponies team to start the season.

Final Thoughts

With an immense crop of young talent knocking on the doors, it is hard to imagine the Mets acquiring any of the headline players available this offseason. Guys like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Juan Soto will all be available to differing extents. Premium players command a premium, and the Mets are still in the midst of a farm restock. When the Mets are on the precipice of perennial contention and can be flexible with their roster is the time to make these moves. 

What the Mets do need to do is to fill out their roster with a blend of high-upside players who will require coaching and development yet will only need a short-term commitment. The kind of commitment that, if it doesn’t work out, will not prevent players like Acuña, Gilbert and Jett Williams from receiving at-bats at the Major League level.

Additionally, the Mets need a few reliable players. The kind of players who can play every day, who are assets in the clubhouse and make the manager’s job easier. The kind of guy who if pressed into full-time duty can be an average big leaguer yet willingly to secede their starting spot if a younger, more talented player does arrive.

In the following parts of this series, I will break down the kind of players the Mets, under Stearns, will look to add to their roster.