Mark Simon of ESPN New York has been very busy lately examining where each Mets player ranks position by position in the major leagues. He’s already analyzed and ranked David Wright, Travis d’Arnaud, Lucas Duda, and most recently the Mets’ center field platoon of Alejandro De Aza and Juan Lagares.
This is really good out of the box stuff you’ll want to read. In addition to uncovering some interesting stats and factoids – something Simon excels at – he also includes some great insights from scouts around the league as well as projections for 2016 using Dan Szymborski’s ZiPs system.
The installment he did on second baseman Neil Walker was one of my favorites and for those of you who remain concerned about the loss of Daniel Murphy, I promise you Simon will ease and eliminate any anxiety.
He begins by pointing out the stark difference between their Wins Above Replacement over the last four seasons in which Walker nearly doubled Murphy’s production 12.3 to 6.6.
“Walker’s offensive strength is his power. He out-homered Murphy 69-42 over the last four seasons and his slugging percentage was almost 20 points better (.435 to .416). On defense, Walker is considerably better. Though both came through the minors as third basemen, Walker was more adequate upon converting to second. He’s at +1 defensive runs saved the last four seasons. Murphy is at -40.”
I had already made up my mind that Walker was a significant upgrade over Murphy both offensively and defensively and kept my fingers crossed all offseason that eventually the Mets would try to acquire him. But it’s amazing to see just how much better Walker is once you peer into the numbers like this. It really drives that point home.
Walker, 30, just misses the top ten based on last season’s production, but Simon raises the very good possibility that the former Pirate can really surprise in 2016 as he plays with a sizable chip on his shoulder and looks to prove that he’s worth a long-term contract when he hits free agency next Winter.
“He’s the kind of player you have to see every day to appreciate,” one MLB scout said. “I’d definitely have rated him in or just outside the top 10.”
While he may not exceed his career high in home runs, I can certainly see him producing at a 125 OPS+ level this season. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him bat .285 with 35 doubles and 18 home runs. And depending on where Terry Collins bats him in the lineup, he could potentially drive in 80 runs for the Mets – something he last did in 2011 when he had 83 RBI.
Anyway, I’d encourage all of you to check out all the other installments by Simon in this very insightful and enjoyable offseason feature.
