National League Wild Card Scenarios

E# is the elimination number. If the Mets lose and the Nationals win a combined total of three games, or the Mets lose and the Brewers win a combined total of three games, the Mets will be eliminated. For you math enthusiasts out there, let me put that into simpler terms.

Mets Losses = X and Nationals Wins = Y

If X + Y ≥ 3, the Mets will be eliminated.

If X + Y = 2, there will be a tiebreaker.

If X + Y ≤ 1, the Mets will secure a Wild Card spot.

The Brewers, Cubs, and Diamondbacks all have six games left to play. The Mets have seven, and the Nationals and Phillies each have eight. Here are the remaining schedules for the Nationals, Brewers, Mets, and Cubs:

• The Nationals play five vs Philadelphia (79-75), then three vs Cleveland (92-64)
• The Brewers play three @ Cincinnati (73-83), then three @ Colorado (67-89)
• The Cubs play three @ Pittsburgh (65-91), then three @ St. Louis (89-67)
• The Mets play four vs Miami (54-101), then three vs Atlanta (96-61)

The Nationals easily have the toughest remaining schedule, playing two .500+ teams, though all eight of their remaining games are at home where they enjoy a 42-31 record. They have a 9-5 record against the Phillies and have not played the Indians. Washington and Philadelphia are set to play a weird five-game series, so if there’s ever a time to root for the Phillies, it’s now.

The Brewers have six road games to end their season, the first three coming in Cincinnati. They have gone 8-8 against the Reds and 5-5 in Cincinnati. They then travel to Colorado having split a four-game set 2-2 earlier in the season. The Rockies have struggled mightily since July 1, having gone 23-49 in that span. The Brewers shouldn’t have too many obstacles through the rest of the season, especially considering they are hot as hell, having won 19 of their last 24 games.

The Cubs have been struggling mightily of late, having lost six straight after winning five straight. They play three against the struggling Pirates, who they have already gone 11-5 against this season. Further, the Pirates have gone 26-48 since July 1. The Cubs then travel to St. Louis to face the 1st place Cardinals, who they’ve gone 7-9 against this season. The Cardinals have gone an amazing 48-26 since July 1, so while the Cubs have an easy task with the Pirates, the Cardinals should prove to be difficult.

The Mets, like the Nationals, enjoy the rest of their season at home, where they’ve gone 43-31. They start with four against the terrible Marlins, against whom they’ve gone 11-4 this season. They then welcome the Braves who they’ve struggled against, having won only five of 11 against them. The Braves would love nothing more than to spoil the Mets season, and unless the Mets sweep the Marlins, the Braves will be in a great position to do so.

So, what must happen?

Let’s say the Mets win out, finishing the season with an 88-74 record. If the Nationals finish 3-5, the Mets will be tied with them (If the Mets go 6-1, the Nationals would have to go 2-6, etc). The Mets, if they won out, would tie the Brewers if Milwaukee finished 2-4, but that is unlikely.

Again, that’s what the Brewers and Nationals would have to do if the Mets went 7-0 to end the season. If you didn’t get how high of a hill this was, do you now?

While we’ve been watching the Brewers, hoping for them to lose, we should really be watching the Nationals. The Brewers have won 19 of their last 24 games and have an easy six games to play the end of the year as they face the Reds and the Rockies. They are hot as hell and have no roadblocks ahead of them. The Nationals, on the other hand, have gone 9-11 in September, winning five of their last ten games. With eight games left against the Phillies and Indians, both good teams, they could be vulnerable.

What is realistic? The word “realistic” need to be malleable right now because realistically, the Mets don’t make the playoffs. But let’s say the Mets sweep the four-game set against the Marlins and the Nationals lose all but one game against the Phillies (1-4). That would leave the Mets at 85-74 and the Nationals at 86-73, each with three games to play against really good teams. If the Mets were to then go 2-1 against the Braves, and the Nationals get swept by the Indians, the Mets would play the Brewers in the Wild Card game. If the Mets go 1-2 and the Nationals get swept, there would be a tiebreaker.

To be clear, the Mets could go 7-0 to end the season and still not make the Wild Card game.

So, it’s almost impossible. Almost. But crazier things have happened.