By Matt Musico
Even after cementing their second straight series win on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati, the New York Mets’ playoff hopes look mighty grim. They fought hard and ended up getting much closer than many expected when looking at their chances earlier this year, but a 4.5-game deficit with seven left to play is hard to overcome.
It’s not impossible, but real difficult. The run was certainly fun while it lasted. At least we can hold our hat on the fact that with a 81-74 record, New York is on the verge of its first winning record since 2016. That’s something, right?
Back in February, I looked at how different parts of the Mets’ roster was projected to perform compared to the rest of the league in 2019. Now that the regular season’s conclusion is on the horizon, I figured this is an appropriate time to see how New York has performed against those projections.
There is a clear divide when it comes to which areas of the roster performed above preseason expectations and which areas didn’t meet those same expectations.
The Biggest Positives
It’s not surprising that the biggest jump experienced here was at first base, courtesy of Pete Alonso and his record-setting rookie season. As if being only the second MLB rookie to reach the 50-homer plateau wasn’t enough, he also added the wrinkle of accumulating 30 doubles to his resume to be in a club all by himself. Honestly, though, there really isn’t anything left to say about Alonso’s year that likely hasn’t already been said. Looking forward, it’ll be interesting to see where projection models pin him at in advance of 2020 and how he’s able to follow up such a monumental performance.
Third base saw the second-largest rise when looking at the difference between their projected MLB rank and actual MLB rank. This difference is mostly thanks to another newcomer to the Mets at the big-league level, J.D. Davis. Getting the opportunity to play mostly every day has allowed him to look like a potential future piece in New York, and he’s hoping that future with the Mets is at third base.
Although the cumulative shortstop fWAR is right on target, it seemed a bit aggressive at the start of 2019 because of Amed Rosario‘s big-league production to that point. However, it’s been nice to see the 23-year-old put together an impressive second half en route to continue an upward trend in his overall development as a player.
The Biggest Disappointments
In looking at the lower half of the above table, it can help Brodie Van Wagenen and his front office form a plan for this winter in order to take another step forward as a club next season. In some spots, though, they’re probably stuck at the moment.
Even with the overall catcher production not living up to preseason expectations, it’s at least been nice to see Wilson Ramos turn his offense up a notch since coming back from the All-Star break. After all, that was a huge reason behind them acquiring him in the first place. A potential problem area moving forward is second base. Robinson Cano has majorly underwhelmed in his return to New York, and even though his second half (130 wRC+) has vastly outperformed his first half (70 wRC+), he’s dealt with multiple trips to the injured list.
In an ideal world, it’d be nice for the Mets to have an infield of Alonso at first, Jeff McNeil at second, Rosario at shortstop, and Davis at third in 2020, but Cano’s contract won’t allow that to happen (and Jed Lowrie‘s may not, either). The squad may need his veteran presence in the clubhouse, but they’ll also need him to stay healthy and productive on the field.
Obviously, the biggest disappointment on a season-long basis has been the bullpen, with Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia being the main culprits. Instead of them locking down the eighth and ninth innings most days, their struggles have just created more questions and juggling on a nightly basis by manager Mickey Callaway.
Considering Familia has two years and $20 million left on his current contract, it’ll likely be tough to make a change with him. The more interesting question will be with Diaz, who is eligible for his first year of arbitration. BVW would certainly be selling low if he trades the right-hander, but he did generate some interest at the trade deadline despite how badly he had performed to that point.
After watching virtually all of BVW’s first season at the helm of the Mets play out, it’s nice to see a fun nucleus of players is being formed on the position player side that can be paired with Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard (if he doesn’t get traded), and for the time being, Marcus Stroman. As currently constructed, they have a shot at competing for a playoff spot again next year. What will be crucial to that actually becoming a reality is how Van Wagenen fortifies the bullpen and how they replace Zack Wheeler in the rotation if he’s not re-signed.
