The All-Star break tends to bring about random optimistic thoughts as well as trade discussions that most likely can’t or won’t happen.
So before any baseball gets started today, let me jump on the “why can’t we do this” train and propose a thought to everybody. I mean, heck, Ron Darling is even thinking we need to make a big blockbuster deal!
I think everybody who wants to see the Mets succeed is on board with the idea that they need an impact offensive player, right?
We’ve already beaten to death the idea of Troy Tulowitzki and Giancarlo Stanton. Yeah, I’d really like to acquire both players – Giancarlo in a heartbeat, Tulo with hesitation – but I’d do it.
You have to first think about the type of deal you’re offering to teams. So my package to acquire a true impact player includes Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero as the main components.
I think both could be legitimate big league arms, but I’m starting to think their value may be in decline and truthfully – I don’t see a big need for them right now.
I am perfectly fine with a rotation that consists of Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler and Dillon Gee. I’d put that rotation up against almost anybody in the sport.
So I look at Syndergaard and Montero as pitchers who I’d love to see crack the Mets, but I also think they are the ones we do not really “know” what they can do at the big league level yet, and I think they might net the biggest piece without impacting the current rotation.
If you’re trying to acquire an elite offensive player, you can’t be cheap with your prospects. To me, if you trade a player like Wheeler or deGrom – you’re getting less back while also impacting your 2015 and beyond rotation. Sure, we can all HOPE Syndergaard is what we think he is, but we know what we have in deGrom and Wheeler. We have mid-rotation guys that every team would love to have, but with Syndergaard you have the hope and uncertainty of a potential #1. I want to sell teams on hope.
So let’s just say the Marlins are not trading Giancarlo – fine. I’m not totally sure if I would offer my two main chips for Tulo, but I could be convinced.
I wanted to look elsewhere and find an impact player that nobody seems to be talking about, but would make a huge difference.
I landed on Paul Goldschmidt. If the Mets offered a package that included Syndergaard, Montero and Lucas Duda to Arizona, would the Diamondbacks consider dealing the 26 year old first basemen?
I think they would – in fact, I think they’d probably be fools not to consider it.
The Mets could even ask for a player like Didi Gregorius or Chris Owings back if they included another minor league chip.
Thus killing two birds with one trade, acquiring a high impact elite offensive player and giving the Mets a solid SS option.
Some may say we do not need to upgrade 1B, but I disagree. Lucas Duda has done an alright job over the last 2 months– but he’s already three years OLDER than Goldschmidt and isn’t even close to as good of a player.
At 26, Goldschmidt is signed through 2018 with a 2019 team option. He will make 3.1 million next year and top out at 11.1 million in 2018 (team option for just over $14 million). That is a contract the Mets have got to love.
Goldschmidt has spent his entire career in hitter friendly Arizona, but that has not impacted his numbers in any way. He is a lifetime .302 hitter in Arizona, with .547 SLG and .947 OPS and a .315 hitter on the road with a .551 SLG and .951 OPS, and oh by the way he won the gold glove last year. If you have a gold glove 1B, it makes having one of the best hitting 2B with below average defensive talent a whole lot easier to digest.
I have no doubt that Arizona is in love with Goldschmidt, but I do think my offer is very fair and if that team wants to build around pitching – we’d be giving them two significant prospects back – both who could crack their club within a year.
No matter where you go for an elite offensive talent, you’re giving up prospects we’ve all been reading about and hyping up. You cannot expect to rob somebody of their best young player, so you have to be willing to give something up.
To me, this deal accomplishes several things, all of which are needed when proposing a blockbuster deal.
It gives the Mets an elite, no doubt about it type of player for the next SEVERAL years. It keeps the Mets current rotation in tact (Swap Harvey for Colon), and it also allows the Mets to keep Daniel Murphy, which I also think is very important.
For the Diamondbacks, sure losing Goldschmidt isn’t ideal, but they net two projected 2015 starting pitchers whom they can control for 5+ years, they also net back a guy who isn’t as good as Goldschmidt but will do just fine at 1B for the time being – and they possibly net back another quality minor leaguer to clean out their SS clog.
Will it happen? I doubt it, but at this point – if you told me the Mets have a shot at acquiring Paul Goldschmidt, I think they’d be fools to not approach Arizona aggressively.
