Tyler Glasnow

Position: Starting Pitcher
Bats/Throws: L/R
Age: 29 (August 23, 1993)
2021 Pitching
Traditional: 14GS, 88.0 IP, 2.66 ERA, 0.932 WHIP, 5-2 W/L, 123 K, 27 BB
Advanced: 152 ERA+, 36.2 K%, 7.9 BB%, 2.74 xERA, 2.77 FIP, 2.70 xFIP, 2.6 fWAR, 2.3 bWAR

Rundown

Tyler Glasnow is not new to being tossed around in trade talks. Initially drafted in the fifth round of the 2011 draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates, he was traded by them to Tampa Bay in one of the most lopsided deals in recent memory.

Glasnow was traded alongside Austin Meadows and Shane Baz in exchange for Chris Archer.

Glasnow busted out in 2019. In 12 starts for Tampa, he had a 1.78 ERA. He’s spent parts of four seasons with the Rays. From 2019-21 he posted a 3.10 ERA and a 3.19 FIP with a 34.4% strikeout rate.

Everything seemed to be going great for the six-foot-eight-inch right-hander. In 2021, Glasnow was working toward a Cy Young season with 14 starts, a 2.66 ERA, and a 36.2% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, he suffered a major injury to his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery.

Glasnow returned in 2022, making only three starts. But his last one showed what he’s capable of when healthy, throwing five shutout innings in the playoffs against Cleveland.

During 2022, Glasnow re-upped his contract with the Rays. They agreed to a tw0-year, $30.35 million extension. The contract pays $5.35 million in 2023 and jumps to $25 million in 2024. The contract also includes incentives or Cy Youn ballotting.

The Rays have never paid a player over $25 million annually before. Wander Franco will make that but not until the 2028 season. It’s a high-risk, high-reward move for the Rays to make but it’s unknown if they’ll actually want to pay that much when the time comes in a year or so from now.

Package

The Rays haven’t shied away from trading their best pitchers in the past. Chris Archer was traded for an absolute steal and Blake Snell was traded for a nice four-prospect haul as well. Both showed better durability and won more awards than Glasnow has but no reason to not think a deal could be similar.

The Snell trade to the Padres resulted in San Diego sent back prospects Luis Patino, Cole Wilcox, Francisco Mejia, and Blake Hunt. Patino being the centerpiece.

The Rays always want arms back when trading their major league talents and I can’t see the Mets having a centerpiece of a deal for Glasnow being a position player.

Idea: RHP Blade Tidwell (Mets No. 8 prospect per MLB Pipeline), RHP Mike Vasil (No. 11) for Glasnow.

Tidwell was the Mets second-round pick in 2022 and lights up radar guns. He’s added solid weight to his lanky frame and still has room to add strength. He’s the Mets top pitching prospect.

Vasil has struggled. The Mets eight-round pick of the 2021 draft, needs to take a jump to reach his original potential scouts saw in 2018. The Athletic’s Keith Law saw Vasil as more of a relief arm than a starter right now after observing him during the Arizona Fall League.

My Thoughts

Glasnow is a floor raiser and his 2023 contract allows for the addition of another big name to add to the rotation. The question with Glasnow, is the same question as Jacob deGrom. When healthy he’s one of the best in the sport but will he be healthy?

Trading with the Rays is always complicated and without an in-depth analysis they seem to come out on top of every deal they make. My proposal is a big deal to make and the Mets should probably heed off trading their top pitching prospects until their new pitching development coordinator Eric Jagers has had a chance to work with them.

Verdict: Hold off this offseason, buy-in for 2024 when the Rays don’t want to pay Glasnow.