MMO Top 30 Mets Prospects: No. 11 Kevin Smith, LHP

Photo by Ed Delany, MMO

No. 11 Kevin Smith, LHP

B/T: R/L Age: 22 (5/13/1997)
Height: 6’5″ Weight: 200 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 7th round of the 2018 MLB Draft
ETA: 2021 Previous Rank: 13
2019 Stats: 3.15 ERA, 1.256 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 3.23 FIP

After an impressive debut season, Smith experienced his first big test in 2019 with his first full season in professional baseball.

Smith has certainly fallen under the radar compared to some of the Mets’ other top prospects, but he will quickly build a name for himself if he can continue having seasons like he did last year. Despite has tall frame, he is not overpowering, as his fastball will not top much higher than the low 90s, but he still has the ability to be dominant with his deceptive delivery and 3/4 arm slot.

Baseball Savant’s scouting report on Smith notes that “Smith’s extension along with his long arm action on the backside makes him difficult to time, let alone square up, and he’s had no problems carving up hitters on both sides of the plate early in his career.”

It also describes his main two pitches: his high spin rate fastball and late-biting slider. Despite not overwhelming with velocity, the high spin rate Smith is able to produce is effective in inducing swings and misses. Smith is also working on a changeup, and with some more refining of that pitch, he could become even more dangerous.

Below is a video taken by MMN’s own Ernest Dove of Smith recording a strikeout on opening night of last season.

The Mets took somewhat of a chance on Smith, slating in him as a starter for St. Lucie after he had only started three games in his career for Brooklyn. However, this decision paid off, as Smith posted a 3.05 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 17 starts. This earned him a promotion to Binghamton, where he posted a 3.45 ERA over his final six starts of the season.

Smith certainly passed his first test as a starter, so the next step will be to see if he can continue to have sustained success at the Double-A level, and hopefully, he will see time in Triple-A Syracuse in 2020. If he really thrives, there’s a slim chance he could make his major league debut this year, but the more likely scenario is that we will see him in orange and blue at some point in 2021.

While David Peterson has been the Mets’ left-handed pitching prospect who has gotten the most attention, Smith has the potential to be just as good or possibly even better. His ceiling is likely that of a number three or four starter, while his floor could be an eventual transition to a relief role.

Regardless, his progression will be fun to watch this year, as the Mets will look to see if he can carry his success into the higher levels of the minor leagues.