Jeurys Familia, RP
Bats/Throws: R/R
DOB: October 10, 1989 (26 on Opening Day)
Contract Status: First year arbitration (Salary: $4.1 million)
2015 Recap
In 2015, Jeurys Familia was simply incredible.
After a very good 2014 season in which he served as the setup man for Jenrry Mejia, Familia stepped his game up even further, dropping his ERA from 2.21 to 1.85. He raised his strikeout rate (8.5 K/9 to 9.92) but most impressively cut back on his walks dramatically (from 3.72 BB/9 to 2.19).
He had no trouble taking over the role as closer when Mejia was suspended. In all, Familia recorded 43 saves and was outrageously good in high leverage situations, holding opponents to a .582 OPS.
In the postseason, Familia was pushed to the limit. He ended up blowing three save opportunities in the World Series, but I don’t think anyone can say they’d rather have had another guy on the mound.
2016 Projections
Steamer – 65 IP, 2.98 ERA, 9.91 K/9, 3.09 BB/9
ZiPS – 77 IP, 2.69 ERA, 9.70 K/9, 2.22 BB/9
Marcel – 72 IP, 2.88 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
All of the projections are a tad pessimistic on Familia, and I can see why. His xFIP last year was 2.55, suggesting a significant jump in his ERA. Also, a 1.85 is just not sustainable for most pitchers.
However, there is something huge that is simply too complex to include in one of these projection systems: Familia has added a splitter. And not just any splitter. Familia’s instantly became one of the most nasty splitters in the sport, and he threw exactly zero before August. Think about it: he added a nasty pitch to a repertoire that was already making him incredibly successful.
Considering how few innings relievers actually throw, it’s difficult to accurately project a relief pitcher. That’s why I don’t really buy into the numbers here. Outside a bad week or two in July, Familia was outstanding and only became more dominant as the season moved along.
Having established himself an almost impeccable track record and with the addition of a nasty pitch last summer, I see no reason why Familia won’t continue to be one of the best relief pitchers in baseball.
