A lot of Mets fans are asking the same question these days, what will it take to sign Yoenis Cespedes to a long term deal? Well, lets look at some dollar numbers.
$1.5 Billion per year through 2021 … That’s what MLB has coming through national television deals. There are also local television deals, which have also increased.
$99,663,329 … The current Mets payroll. Twentieth in baseball, right behind the Minnesota Twins.
4,689 … That’s the average increase at Citi Field in number of fans per game compared to last year.
The increase in attendance, when multiplied by 81, and again by $25.30 (average Citi Field ticket price), gives you more or less a $10 million dollar bump in revenue over the course of the season. That doesn’t count things like parking – even 1000 extra cars per game at $22.00 a car generate another $1.7 million. Then there are concessions, SNY profits, national television dollars, merchandise and other miscellaneous money makers. Projecting a $15 million dollar boost in proceeds is not a stretch. That doesn’t even count what the team stands to make should they make it into the post-season, which is looking more likely every day with their magic number down to 14.
It’s a nice little bonus for the Wilpons, who incidentally have already restructured much of their debt.
Here’s another number: $37.6 million … That’s how much salary is coming off the books this off-season. Colon, Murphy, Cespedes, Parnell, Clippard, Uribe, Blevins, O’Flaherty, Johnson, and others, are all reaching free agency. The Mets will have flexibility. If you add revenue increases to salary relief you are looking at over $50 million in potential spending money.
A few years ago many of you may recall how Sandy Alderson explained how payroll was contingent on gate proceeds and that as revenues went up, so would payroll. Fans should not forget that, a deal is a deal — we show up, Sandy spends … no backsies.
The notion that the Mets might not be able to afford Cespedes is absurd. The Mets have the money, and for the first time in his career Cespedes is at the center of a baseball phenomenon and an astonishing offensive turn-around. New York is the place to be right now, and Cespedes is the star attraction. It’s a marriage made in Mets heaven.
I don’t know where the Wilpons are financially, I don’t know that anyone but the Wilpons and their accountants do, but I do know that the Mets not only will enjoy additional revenue this season, they will in all likelihood benefit from even larger increases next season. The Mets currently possess the third largest year to year increase in attendance in baseball, behind only Kansas City and Houston.
I also don’t know whether the Wilpons’ Willets Point Development will ever get off the ground having just received a standing eight count in court. Apparently De Blasio is no Bloomberg and there is a standoff over just how much affordable housing will go into the deal. But the real stumbling block is the “eminent domain” claim over park land slated to be developed. It’s one thing to build a ballpark on park space, quite another to build some sort of monstrosity shopping mall half a century after the original ballpark opened.
Nevertheless, the Mets, as a financial entity, are doing just fine these days. Oh we can write letters to Mayor De Blasio telling him to please rubber stamp the development contingent on the Mets signing Cespedes, but lets not get desperate just yet.
If the Mets really had $160 million on the table for Robinson Cano, they can scrape together $180 million over 7 years for Cespedes. It wouldn’t make business sense not to sign him … and in the end, it’s probably not even the Wilpons’ call. Oh sure they have to approve the expense, but Sandy Alderson has the flexibility to fit Cespedes into the budget without increasing payroll. Playoff teams generate, on average, $20 – 30 million more in revenue than non playoff teams, so if Cespedes leads the Mets to the promised land and helps us contend for the next few seasons, he will in a very real sense be paying for himself.
Sandy Aldersons oft-touted “sustainable flexibility,” staggering larger contracts so you can make big moves when you have to, appears to be in full swing. It is remarkable that in spite of the Mets’ post-season trajectory, they are looking at substantial salary relief. Think about that for a second, on a year when they look to be headed to the playoffs they will see almost half their payroll come off the books! You couldn’t have planned it better, unless you were Sandy Alderson and you actually did plan it.
The Mets will retain their 5 day negotiating window at the conclusion of the World Series when they can make an exclusive pitch. Cespedes will probably see what the rest of baseball has to offer and make his decision, but the Mets, given their revenue increases and payroll relief have as good a shot as anyone to sign Yoenis.
And we absolutely have to sign this guy. As I write this he’s gone 3-for-5 with a homerun and 3 RBI – just another night at the office. Yoenis Cespedes has been the perfect addition to the 2015 Mets, and no crowing about his one misstep in the outfield or whether he’ll be worth it at 34 will take away from that. When Cespedes is 34 he may have already taken us to the post-season several times with perhaps even a world title in the mix. I’ll take a couple of off-seasons with that in a heartbeat.
There is really no argument here. Yoenis is still technically 29, he is built like a tank, Greek God or beast (take your pick), has great speed, can play all the outfield spots, solidifies the middle of the order, and he does it in New York.
I could see being tentative if the Mets were broke, they’re not, they’re reeling in at least $25 million in additional revenue through gate proceeds alone over the next two years and enough payroll flexibility to easily add a big contract. The Mets should even have room to spare should the Wilpon’s decide they want to use a portion of their new proceeds to pay down debt … but a promise is a promise Sandy. We showed up … now it’s your turn.
Pay the man.
