Devin asks…
Isn’t anyone the least bit concerned that as Sandy Alderson enters his fifth season as GM not one of his draft selections has made it to the majors yet and none are expected to be on the 2015 Opening Day roster? In the MLB Preview they pick Noah Syndergaard, Dilson Herrera and Steven Matz as three Mets prospects to watch in 2015, and neither of them are Sandy’s draft picks either. We’re all hoping to see Wilmer Flores, Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud have breakthrough seasons in 2015, but again, none are Sandy’s draft picks. Take a look at the AL and NL and there are dozens of players from the 2011, 2012 and even the 2013 draft. 38 major leaguers have already come out of the 2011 draft from 28 different teams, none of course from the Mets. This obsession with drafting high risk, high school players in the top rounds hasn’t really worked out for us, has it?
Andre replies…
The upside with high school prospects usually is that they can still be taught and trained in a way that the organization feels confident about. And in general, the majority of drafted impact players in the majors have come from high school and not the college ranks in the past 15+ years or so.
While, the risk may be higher, the upside often is also higher than with college picks. Of course, the aspect of player DEVELOPMENT is far more important with HS or young IFA talent than it is with advanced college players.
Now, the downside is that it generally takes longer to develop HS talent than college players for obvious reasons. So, if you have to be willing and able to give HS picks 4-5 years to develop in general before they reach the majors and probably another year before they have an impact.
A team that´s not able to sport a “large market” high payroll may be more inclined to go after college talent early in a draft during a window of contention than a team with a large market payroll OR during a rebuilding. That of course, is besides taking the best player available early in a draft.
The Mets have – rightfully – focused on HS talent and getting IFA signed that they´re now trying to develop – hopefully with better success than in the two previous decades. The problems of finding a legit young middle infielder ever since Jose Reyes was signed as an IFA in 2000 can directly be traced to both having a sub par development system in place AND not really drafting many – if any – players with a middle infield upside defensively in over a decade (from 2001 through 2011). We have since brought in some high upside talent led by top shortstop prospect Amed Rosario.
And while it remains to be seen if and how successful the “Alderson” drafts have been – and pretty sure Alderson hasn’t really been actively involved in these but at best listened with interest – the fact that none of “his” picks has appeared in the majors isn’t a problem at all. Besides the focus on HS talent, several college players such as Kevin Plawecki, Matt Reynolds, Cory Mazzoni or Daniel Muno could easily have appeared in the majors already. But mainly due to 40-man roster management and perhaps financial issues, they have been held back so far.
